Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T06:31:08+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.5
score
1D 0x1d8a…085b other 146 markets active 1h ago coverage 122d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3,243 (+2%) realized +$3,243 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -7% what you keep after slip
Net edge-7%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate24%35W / 110L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown22%max
Avg bet$1,410per market
Trades / day3.4pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit68%portable
Net worth$432now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$36
7 days−$152
14 days+$347
30 days+$2,213
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 46% −$114
other 42% +$1,750
sports 6% +$1,272
crypto 2% +$281
world 2% −$18
economics 1% −$3
culture 1% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+0.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 11 -31.9% -38.4% 9% 9% -11.0%
≤30d 48 +12.5% +1.8% 21% 19% -7.1%
≤90d 110 +2.7% -7.1% 18% 15% -8.5%
all 145 +11.2% +0.6% 24% 19% -8.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.4 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +0.6% 19% -8.1%
10% -9.1% 19% -16.9%
15% -17.8% 19% -24.9%
20% -25.9% 18% -32.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 48% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
23% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +11% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$1,662) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +14% → late +8% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$125 vs −$11 · ×11.33 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.64 per $1 lost it wins $3.64
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

122d coverage
Net worth$432
Realized+$3,243
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)24%
Wins / losses35 / 110
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions1
Markets (closed)145 / 146
History coverage122d
Avg bet$1,410
Trades / day3.4
Drawdown22%
Kalshi-fit68%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 145 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin reach $100,000 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $431 $432 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? Jun 17 $1,677 −$2 -0%
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 16 $1,517 −$2 -0%
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $1,336 −$2 -0%
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 15 $1,443 −$2 -0%
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 14 $1,662 −$3 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:50AM-3:55AM ET Jun 14 $32 −$32 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET Jun 13 $120 +$60 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 13 $105 −$105 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 10:55PM-11:00PM ET Jun 13 $32 −$32 -100%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 11 $1,507 −$2 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 09 $2,531 −$3 -0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $4,270 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 09 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:10AM-2:15AM ET Jun 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 09 $52 +$38 +73%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 09 $1 +$3 +252%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 09 $2,743 −$4 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $3,722 −$5 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 08 $150 +$350 +233%
Will the Colorado Rockies win the 2026 World Series? Jun 08 $1,532 −$2 -0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 07 $1,673 −$3 -0%
Will Marine Tondelier win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 06 $1,639 −$3 -0%
Will Elise Stefanik win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 06 $2,807 −$4 -0%
Will Fernando Alonso be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 06 $3,170 −$4 -0%
Boston Red Sox vs. New York Yankees Jun 06 $61 +$78 +129%
Will George Clooney win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 05 $1,674 −$3 -0%
Counter-Strike: NRG vs FlyQuest (BO1) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 1 Jun 05 $78 +$78 +101%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $7,347 −$8 -0%
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 03 $1,690 −$2 -0%
Will Mike Pence win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 02 $2,346 −$3 -0%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in May? Jun 02 $1,182 +$3 +0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 31 $1,584 −$2 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 31 $3,798 −$5 -0%
Will Chelsea Clinton win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 28 $1,318 −$2 -0%
Will Ecuador win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 28 $3,665 −$5 -0%
Will Élisabeth Borne win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $1,561 −$2 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $1,999 −$2 -0%
Will Canada win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 26 $5,011 −$5 -0%
Will Jasmine Crockett win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 25 $7,158 −$9 -0%
Los Angeles Dodgers vs. Milwaukee Brewers May 25 $86 +$51 +60%
Will Wuthering Heights be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 23 $1,202 −$2 -0%
Cleveland Guardians vs. Philadelphia Phillies May 23 $69 +$109 +158%
Will Jared Polis win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $1,568 −$3 -0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 22 $1,298 −$2 -0%
Will Pete Hegseth win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 21 $1,500 −$2 -0%
Will XRP dip to $0.60 in May? May 19 $1,372 −$3 -0%
Will VfL Wolfsburg win on 2026-05-16? May 19 $1,167 +$1,750 +150%
Will Lance Stroll be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 10 $3,159 −$3 -0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 09 $5,293 −$6 -0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $1,675 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $7 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $2 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $15 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $1 1h
Will Jordan win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 13¢ $0 1h
Will Williams be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $1,677 2h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,515 23h
Will Mathilde Panot win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,517 27h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $1,334 43h
Will Raphael Warnock win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $1,336 45h
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $1,442 2d
Will 11 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $1,443 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $1,660 2d
Will Carole Delga win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $1,662 2d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $109 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $5 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET SELL Up 60¢ $66 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $3 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $12 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $16 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $4 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $8 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 3:55AM-4:00AM ET BUY Up 40¢ $2 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $431.69 · official $431.69 (match) · 541 history records