Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T06:28:00+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d87…8818 world 43 markets active 1h ago coverage 284d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$3 (+0%) realized +$3 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate26%11W / 31L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$25per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$32now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$0
7 days−$0
14 days−$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$4
politics 27% $0
other 9% $0
crypto 7% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 3% $0
weather 2% $0
tech 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-8.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 -1.6% -11.0% 20% 0% -9.7%
≤30d 8 +1.1% -8.5% 25% 12% -9.3%
≤90d 16 +1.1% -8.6% 31% 6% -9.0%
all 42 +0.8% -8.8% 26% 5% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.8% 5% -9.3%
10% -17.5% 2% -18.0%
15% -25.5% 2% -25.9%
20% -32.8% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt +0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +1% → late +1% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×3.06 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.11 per $1 lost it wins $2.11
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

284d coverage
Net worth$32
Realized+$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)26%
Wins / losses11 / 31
Open positions1
Markets (closed)42 / 43
History coverage284d
Avg bet$25
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 42 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? No 76¢ 76¢ $32 $32 +$0 (+1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? Jun 23 $24 $0 +0%
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? Jun 23 $46 $0 +0%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $8 −$1 -9%
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? Jun 23 $5 $0 +0%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $43 +$1 +1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 27 $48 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 27 $45 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 26 $4 +$1 +17%
Will Alberta join the US? May 24 $18 $0 +0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 24 $13 $0 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 24 $44 +$2 +4%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $86 $0 -0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 21 $44 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 21 $40 $0 +1%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? May 21 $22 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by May 31? May 19 $35 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 27 $15 $0 -0%
Will Trump pardon Himself in 2025? Sep 27 $30 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 27 $29 $0 -0%
Will Trump sell 10k-25k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 27 $20 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 27 $9 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 27 $8 $0 -4%
Will the highest temperature in London be between 68-69°F on September Sep 27 $27 $0 +1%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 25 $1 $0 +0%
Will 5 Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Sep 25 $25 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran ceasefire broken by September 30? Sep 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will XRP reach $4.00 in September? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Sep 24 $26 $0 -0%
Will Ethereum hit $14,000 by December 31? Sep 21 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 21 $26 $0 +0%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 -0%
Will Glenn Youngkin win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Clippers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Vivek Ramaswamy win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 16 $29 $0 +0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 16 $28 $0 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 16 $5 $0 +0%
Will Wes Moore win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $5 $0 +1%
Will the Toronto Raptors win the 2026 NBA Finals? Sep 15 $2 $0 -20%
Will Trump deport 500,000-750,000- people? Sep 14 $30 $0 -0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in US? Sep 13 $1 +$1 +40%
Will Donald Trump be the first leader out in 2025? Sep 13 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 15? BUY No 76¢ $32 1h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $22 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 7h
Mojtaba Khamenei seen in public by July 31? BUY Yes 32¢ $14 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? SELL No 86¢ $46 7h
China x Philippines military clash before 2027? BUY No 86¢ $46 10h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 48¢ $7 14h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 53¢ $8 17h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $1 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? SELL Yes 7¢ $3 25h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $2 26h
Will Israeli forces withdraw from beyond the Litani River by June 30? BUY Yes 7¢ $1 26h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $7 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 76¢ $36 30h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $43 33h
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 99¢ $2 27d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 72¢ $45 28d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 72¢ $45 28d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 6¢ $4 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $2 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? SELL No 97¢ $44 29d
Iran leadership change by May 31? BUY No 97¢ $46 29d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 2¢ $0 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma SELL Yes 3¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $1 30d
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma BUY Yes 4¢ $0 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $32.13 · official $32.13 (match) · 130 history records