Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T06:13:20+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1D 0x1d85…dd2b crypto 274 markets active 1h ago coverage 246d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$303 (-7%) realized −$302 · open −$1
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -13% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -21% what you keep after slip
Net edge-21%after slip
Net WR41%break-even
Win rate48%131W / 142L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$15per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit90%portable
Net worth$99now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$36
7 days+$58
14 days+$58
30 days+$58
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 64% −$304
other 22% +$21
tech 10% +$24
world 4% −$64
sports 0% −$4
politics 0% −$1
economics 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +41%
net ROI/market (all)-21.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 15 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 47% -4.9%
≤30d 15 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 47% -4.9%
≤90d 15 +5.4% -4.7% 60% 47% -4.9%
all 273 -13.1% -21.4% 48% 41% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -21.4% 41% -17.1%
10% -28.9% 33% -25.1%
15% -35.8% 23% -32.3%
20% -42.1% 18% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 18% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -13% · $-wt -9% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -9% → late -17% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$8 · ×0.76 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

246d coverage
Net worth$99
Realized−$302
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses131 / 142
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions1
Markets (closed)273 / 274
History coverage246d
Avg bet$15
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit90%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 273 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? No 49¢ 48¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 86 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $9 $0 +3%
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $102 +$76 +75%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $51 −$50 -97%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $100 +$14 +14%
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? Jun 16 $100 −$5 -5%
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? Jun 16 $101 +$23 +23%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1 $0 -20%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $103 +$49 +48%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 +$1 +11%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 +$7 +238%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $41 −$40 -99%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? Jun 12 $411 +$25 +6%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $42 +$37 +88%
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $31 −$30 -97%
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? Mar 04 $102 −$4 -4%
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? Mar 01 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 26 $5 −$5 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 26 $5 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 26 $8 −$3 -41%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 26 $2 +$1 +57%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Feb 26 $6 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Feb 26 $2 −$2 -98%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Feb 26 $6 +$2 +27%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Feb 26 $4 +$1 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Feb 26 $4 $0 +2%
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Feb 26 $4 −$4 -100%
Dota 2: Tundra Esports vs BetBoom Team (BO3) - DreamLeague Stage 2 Feb 26 $8 −$4 -52%
Counter-Strike: ASTRAL vs Heroic (BO3) - DraculaN Playoffs Feb 26 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Feb 23 $7 −$5 -72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Feb 23 $3 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Feb 23 $7 −$1 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:25PM-2:30PM ET Feb 23 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Feb 23 $3 −$2 -70%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Feb 23 $5 −$2 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Feb 23 $2 $0 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Feb 23 $3 +$1 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Feb 23 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30PM-1:45PM ET Feb 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Feb 23 $4 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Feb 23 $8 −$2 -20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Feb 23 $5 −$4 -76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Feb 23 $2 −$2 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Feb 23 $2 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET Feb 23 $4 $0 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Feb 23 $2 +$6 +309%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Feb 23 $4 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Feb 23 $4 $0 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Feb 23 $11 −$1 -9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 23, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Feb 23 $4 −$4 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-18? BUY No 49¢ $102 1h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 9¢ $10 11h
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 8¢ $9 14h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? SELL No 56¢ $178 24h
Will Austria win on 2026-06-17? BUY No 31¢ $102 26h
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 32h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? SELL No 100¢ $115 33h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? SELL No 26¢ $95 38h
Will the next diplomatic US-Iran meeting be in Switzerland? BUY No 27¢ $100 38h
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-16? BUY No 87¢ $100 2d
Will New Zealand win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 81¢ $101 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-15? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? SELL No 14¢ $152 2d
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? BUY No 9¢ $103 2d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 15¢ $50 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? SELL Yes 3¢ $11 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? SELL Yes 6¢ $10 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 3d
Will Curaçao win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY No 55¢ $41 5d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? SELL Yes 97¢ $436 5d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? SELL Yes 64¢ $79 6d
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 33¢ $42 6d
Will South Africa win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 11¢ $31 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.6T? BUY Yes 91¢ $411 7d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? SELL No 40¢ $98 105d
Opinion FDV above $500M one day after launch? BUY No 42¢ $102 105d
Khamenei out as Supreme Leader of Iran by February 28? BUY No 1¢ $9 109d
Ethereum Up or Down - February 26, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 70¢ $5 111d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $98.98 · official $98.98 (match) · 586 history records