Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T20:34:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d82…a5b6 sports 8 markets active 2h ago coverage 4d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$774 (+56%) realized +$756 · open +$18
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +111% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +91% what you keep after slip
Net edge+91%after slip
Net WR50%break-even
Win rate50%3W / 3L
Drawdown7%max
Avg bet$174per market
Trades / day2.6pace
Fees−$22est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$849now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 97% +$555
other 3% +$208
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +50%
net ROI/market (all)+91.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 6 +111.2% +91.1% 50% 50% +113.7%
≤30d 6 +111.2% +91.1% 50% 50% +113.7%
≤90d 6 +111.2% +91.1% 50% 50% +113.7%
all 6 +111.2% +91.1% 50% 50% +113.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +91.1% 50% +113.7%
10% +72.8% 50% +93.3%
15% +56.1% 50% +74.6%
20% +40.8% 50% +57.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 99% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +136% too few recent
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +111% · $-wt +136% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$265 vs −$17 · ×15.73 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×15.73 per $1 lost it wins $15.73
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$849
Realized+$756
Unrealized+$18
Win rate (resolved)50%
Wins / losses3 / 3
Est. fees paid−$22
Open positions2
Markets (closed)6 / 8
History coverage4d
Avg bet$174
Trades / day2.6
Drawdown7%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 6 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu Emma Raducanu 58¢ 60¢ $539 $560 +$21 (+4%)
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 Over 51¢ 50¢ $291 $288 −$3 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Mysore Warriors vs Gulbarga Mystics Jun 27 $10 +$11 +106%
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners Jun 27 $255 +$577 +226%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $47 +$208 +442%
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Jun 25 $44 −$43 -98%
Wang vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 Jun 24 $94 −$3 -3%
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick Jun 24 $99 −$5 -5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bellucci vs. Svajda: Set 1 Games O/U 8.5 BUY Over 51¢ $295 1h
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Mysore Warriors vs Gulbarga Mystics SELL Gulbarga Mystics 100¢ $21 26h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 58¢ $506 26h
Wimbledon WTA: Antonia Ruzic vs Emma Raducanu BUY Emma Raducanu 61¢ $39 30h
Maharaja T20 Trophy: Mysore Warriors vs Gulbarga Mystics BUY Gulbarga Mystics 48¢ $10 38h
Uruguay vs. Spain: O/U 7.5 Total Corners BUY Under 30¢ $255 45h
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 18¢ $44 3d
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 18¢ $47 3d
Wang vs. Svitolina: Set 1 Games O/U 10.5 BUY Under 51¢ $94 4d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick SELL largadosypelados 50¢ $94 4d
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs Vasco Esports (BO3) - Thunderpick BUY largadosypelados 51¢ $99 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $848.51 · official $848.51 (match) · 14 history records