Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T22:39:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d7f…a878 sports 250 markets active 0h ago coverage 710d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable Fading edgeP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died✗ net negative once open positions are counted
Total PnL −$4,453 (-2%) realized +$165 · open −$4,618
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -17% what you keep after slip
Net edge-17%after slip
Net WR34%break-even
Win rate37%88W / 153L
Whale WR41%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$970per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1,136est.
Kalshi-fit88%portable
Net worth$18,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 710d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 48% −$19,566
politics 17% +$1,115
other 17% +$6,309
world 15% −$7,923
finance 1% +$3,858
tech 1% +$3,331
economics 0% −$135
weather 0% −$170
crypto 0% +$186
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +34%
net ROI/market (all)-13.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -49.1% -53.9% 29% 29% -80.6%
≤30d 24 -9.4% -18.0% 33% 33% -29.9%
≤90d 76 -26.4% -33.4% 25% 25% -26.2%
all 241 -4.1% -13.2% 37% 34% -12.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.2% 34% -12.9%
10% -21.5% 32% -21.2%
15% -29.1% 29% -28.8%
20% -36.0% 27% -35.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 16% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -19% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
6% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 41% (≥$898) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +9% → late -17% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$938 vs −$594 · ×1.58 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

710d coverage
Net worth$18,899
Realized+$165
Unrealized−$4,618
Win rate (resolved)37%
Wins / losses88 / 153
Whale WR (big bets)41%
Est. fees paid−$1,136
Open positions9
Markets (closed)241 / 250
History coverage710d
Avg bet$970
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit88%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 9 History 241 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026? No 59¢ 76¢ $8,012 $10,320 +$2,308 (+29%)
Billionaire one-time wealth tax on California ballot? No 41¢ 41¢ $4,904 $4,933 +$30 (+1%)
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Yes 37¢ 36¢ $3,143 $3,101 −$42 (-1%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $240 $205 −$35 (-14%)
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) Cabo Verde 58¢ 57¢ $188 $187 −$2 (-1%)
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? Yes 28¢ 4¢ $606 $76 −$530 (-87%)
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Yes 21¢ 2¢ $592 $42 −$550 (-93%)
Belgium vs. IR Iran: Both Teams to Score Yes 34¢ 0¢ $5,741 $26 −$5,715 (-100%)
Deel IPO before 2027? Yes 45¢ 4¢ $90 $9 −$81 (-90%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Japan (-2.5) Jun 21 $107 +$93 +86%
Will Tunisia vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 21 $204 −$200 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Ion Cutelaba vs. Navajo Stirling (Light Heavyweight, Jun 21 $1,372 −$1,342 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Christian Rodriguez vs. Hyder Amil (Featherweight, Ma Jun 21 $1,032 −$1,008 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Ciryl Gane vs. Alex Pereira (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $3,572 −$3,520 -98%
UFC Freedom 250: Derrick Lewis vs. Josh Hokit (Heavyweight, Main Card) Jun 15 $1,305 −$875 -67%
UFC Freedom 250: Steve Garcia vs. Diego Lopes (Featherweight, Main Car Jun 15 $881 +$619 +70%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $918 +$1,590 +173%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 14 $245 +$755 +307%
UFC Fight Night: Brendan Allen vs. Edmen Shahbazyan (Middleweight, Mai Jun 09 $1,066 +$634 +60%
UFC Fight Night: Bryce Mitchell vs. Santiago Luna (Bantamweight, Main Jun 09 $1,021 +$879 +86%
Spurs vs. Knicks Jun 09 $813 −$798 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Flavio Cobolli vs Alexander Zverev Jun 07 $206 −$201 -97%
UFC Fight Night: Joanderson Brito vs. Jordan Leavitt (Featherweight, P Jun 06 $1,187 −$1,166 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Bruno Silva vs. Édgar Cháirez (Flyweight, Prelims) Jun 06 $1,021 −$1,007 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Belal Muhammad vs. Gabriel Bonfim (Welterweight, Main Jun 06 $1,015 −$1,000 -98%
Will Nithya Raman finish first in the first round of the 2026 Los Ange Jun 06 $58 −$56 -96%
Knicks vs. Spurs Jun 04 $813 +$1,271 +156%
Spurs vs. Thunder May 31 $862 −$848 -98%
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup? May 30 $1,056 −$1,038 -98%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 28 $463 −$452 -98%
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary? May 26 $804 +$3,507 +436%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Ray J vs. Supah Hot Fire May 24 $147 −$128 -87%
Brand Risk Promotions 14: Johnny Manziel vs. Bob Menery May 24 $153 −$149 -98%
Will Thomas Massie be the Republican nominee for KY-04? May 19 $1,063 −$1,038 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Dooho Choi vs. Daniel Santos (Featherweight, Main Car May 17 $1,817 −$1,796 -99%
UFC 328: Sean Strickland vs. Khamzat Chimaev (Middleweight, Main Card) May 13 $1,628 +$1,919 +118%
UFC 328: Joaquin Buckley vs. Sean Brady (Welterweight, Main Card) May 13 $1,092 +$1,827 +167%
UFC 328: Alexander Volkov vs. Waldo Cortes-Acosta (Heavyweight, Main C May 13 $2,201 +$1,678 +76%
UFC 328: Yaroslav Amosov vs. Joel Álvarez (Welterweight, Prelims) May 10 $3,727 +$2,124 +57%
UFC 328: Tatsuro Taira vs. Joshua Van (Flyweight, Main Card) May 10 $1,453 −$1,096 -75%
UFC 328: Clayton Carpenter vs. Jose Ochoa (Flyweight, Early Prelims) May 10 $6,171 +$3,829 +62%
UFC Fight Night: Carlos Prates vs. Jack Della Maddalena (Welterweight, May 03 $5,275 +$4,725 +90%
NBA Playoffs: Who Will Win Series? - Raptors vs. Cavaliers May 02 $1,210 −$1,185 -98%
UFC Fight Night: Davey Grant vs. Adrian Luna Martinetti (Bantamweight, Apr 27 $2,054 +$1,767 +86%
UFC Fight Night: Aljamain Sterling vs. Youssef Zalal (Featherweight, M Apr 26 $4,370 −$4,311 -99%
UFC Fight Night: Alexander Hernandez vs. Rafa Garcia (Lightweight, Pre Apr 25 $5,200 −$5,125 -99%
UFC 327: Jirí Procházka vs. Carlos Ulberg (Light Heavyweight, Main Car Apr 13 $500 −$500 -100%
UFC 327: Paulo Costa vs. Azamat Murzakanov (Light Heavyweight, Main Ca Apr 13 $620 +$1,339 +216%
Will Ro Khanna advance from the CA-17 primary? Apr 13 $4 −$4 -100%
Iran leadership change by April 30? Apr 12 $107 −$107 -100%
UFC 327: Mateusz Gamrot vs. Esteban Ribovics (Lightweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $604 −$604 -100%
UFC 327: Patricio Pitbull vs. Aaron Pico (Featherweight, Prelims) Apr 12 $930 −$930 -100%
UFC 327: Chris Padilla vs. MarQuel Mederos (Lightweight, Early Prelims Apr 12 $630 +$107 +17%
UFC 327: Tatiana Suarez vs. Loopy Godínez (Women's Strawweight, Early Apr 12 $2,621 +$1,547 +59%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $289 −$289 -100%
Iran leadership change by March 31? Apr 11 $330 −$330 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be Viktor Orbán? Apr 11 $399 −$399 -100%
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Apr 11 $118 +$1,442 +1224%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 30? Apr 07 $960 −$407 -42%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $66 13m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $1 13m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $1 13m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $200 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $13 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $1 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $13 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $14 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $75 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $50 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $6 14m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $9 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $10 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $1 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $7 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $3 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $298 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $39 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $392 15m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $3 16m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $66 16m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 85¢ $10 16m
Spread: Uruguay (-1.5) BUY Cabo Verde 58¢ $191 35m
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 37¢ $3,770 1h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $0 1h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 28¢ $584 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 25¢ $12 2h
IR Iran to score first vs. Belgium? BUY Yes 25¢ $10 2h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $18,899.33 · official $18,899.33 (match) · 1463 history records