Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T10:51:33+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d7c…3d13 world 87 markets active 1h ago coverage 534d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$51 (-1%) realized −$51 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +20% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +9% what you keep after slip
Net edge+9%after slip
Net WR8%break-even
Win rate45%39W / 48L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.6pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit77%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$11
7 days−$9
14 days−$2
30 days+$15
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 45% +$41
other 27% −$14
sports 13% −$78
politics 11% +$1
finance 3% −$4
weather 1% −$4
crypto 0% $0
economics 0% $0
tech 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +8%
net ROI/market (all)+9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -4.5% -13.6% 14% 0% -10.8%
≤30d 35 +57.6% +42.6% 43% 9% -9.2%
≤90d 50 +40.3% +26.9% 44% 6% -9.4%
all 87 +20.4% +9.0% 45% 8% -10.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.6 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +9.0% 8% -10.2%
10% -1.5% 7% -18.8%
15% -11.0% 2% -26.6%
20% -19.7% 2% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 36% · top 2 52% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
82% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +20% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +46% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$3 vs −$5 · ×0.54 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.66 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

534d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$51
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses39 / 48
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions0
Markets (closed)87 / 87
History coverage534d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit77%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 87 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 23 $43 −$8 -19%
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 23 $130 −$2 -2%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? Jun 22 $7 −$1 -13%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $30 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 18 $128 +$2 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 17 $117 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 17 $216 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 16 $200 −$1 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 15 $206 +$2 +1%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $117 −$2 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $28 −$1 -4%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 13 $202 +$1 +1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 12 $250 +$7 +3%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by June 30? Jun 11 $115 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 07 $239 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 07 $305 $0 +0%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 07 $37 −$1 -3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 06 $92 +$17 +18%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $216 −$2 -1%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 06 $16 −$1 -7%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 05 $176 $0 -0%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? Jun 02 $27 +$1 +3%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30? Jun 01 $112 $0 -0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 30 $100 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? May 29 $114 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? May 27 $30 +$1 +3%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 27 $182 +$5 +3%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 26 $118 −$5 -4%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 26 $2 $0 +15%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 26 $117 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of May? May 26 $118 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 25 $102 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 25 $113 −$3 -2%
US-Iran nuclear deal by May 31? May 25 $117 +$4 +3%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 24 $5 $0 +6%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 23 $15 $0 +3%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 23 $95 $0 +0%
Jeffrey Epstein foul play confirmed by December 31, 2026? May 13 $204 $0 +0%
Will Tamilaga Vettri Kazhagam (TVK) win the most seats in the 2026 Tam Apr 27 $111 $0 +0%
Will the All India Trinamool Congress (AITC) win the most seats in the Apr 25 $111 +$1 +0%
Will the All India Anna Dravida Munnetra Kazhagam (ADMK) win the most Apr 24 $111 +$1 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium in April? Apr 23 $25 −$2 -6%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by April 30, 2026? Apr 22 $101 +$1 +1%
Will Elon Musk post 1160-1199 tweets in April 2026? Apr 21 $101 $0 -0%
Will Charlotte FC win the 2026 MLS Cup? Apr 17 $577 −$4 -1%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Apr 16 $577 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 15 $8 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Apr 15 $36 $0 +0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $579 −$3 -0%
Will France win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $580 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 13¢ $35 1h
Will Naftali Bennett be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 16¢ $43 3h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $49 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $46 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL Yes 51¢ $32 9h
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY Yes 52¢ $130 12h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $1 34h
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $2 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 4d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 3¢ $7 4d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $30 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $28 5d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $2 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 95¢ $130 5d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 93¢ $128 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $7 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $1 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 69¢ $109 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $56 5d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 69¢ $61 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $35 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $69 6d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $104 6d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $14 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $45 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $13 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 70¢ $45 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $6 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $44 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 69¢ $38 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.73 · official $0.00 (match) · 315 history records