Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T07:03:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d7c…51fd crypto 102 markets active 1h ago coverage 8d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$1,322 (-7%) realized −$1,352 · open +$30
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -11% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -31% what you keep after slip
Net edge-31%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate55%53W / 44L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$184per market
Trades / day27.8pace
Fees−$43est.
Kalshi-fit94%portable
Net worth$670now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$265
7 days+$186
14 days−$1,860
30 days−$1,860
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 78% −$2,151
sports 18% +$394
other 4% −$73
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-19.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 40 -15.9% -24.0% 50% 45% -7.3%
≤30d 97 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 43% -18.9%
≤90d 97 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 43% -18.9%
all 97 -10.9% -19.4% 55% 43% -18.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover27.8 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -19.4% 43% -18.9%
10% ← realistic here -27.1% 37% -26.7%
15% -34.1% 31% -33.8%
20% -40.6% 25% -40.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 25% · top 2 34% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
19% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -11% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +4% → late -26% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.0 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$82 vs −$140 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

8d coverage
Net worth$670
Realized−$1,352
Unrealized+$30
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses53 / 44
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Est. fees paid−$43
Open positions5
Markets (closed)97 / 102
History coverage8d
Avg bet$184
Trades / day27.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit94%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 97 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 69¢ 69¢ $383 $386 +$3 (+1%)
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves San Francisco Giants 40¢ 46¢ $135 $157 +$22 (+16%)
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $100 $107 +$7 (+7%)
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Yes 18¢ 18¢ $20 $19 −$1 (-3%)
Will the San Francisco Giants clinch a spot in the 2026 MLB Postseason? Yes 7¢ 4¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-49%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 30 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 17 $103 −$100 -97%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$23 +46%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $50 +$12 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Jun 16 $52 −$50 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $255 +$151 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET Jun 16 $160 −$156 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 15 $139 −$133 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 15 $105 −$100 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 15 $308 +$187 +61%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15AM-2:20AM ET Jun 15 $78 −$75 -96%
Chicago Cubs vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 14 $1,379 +$1,095 +79%
Spread: Chicago Cubs (-1.5) Jun 12 $587 −$581 -99%
Libema Open: Daria Snigur vs Robin Montgomery Jun 12 $30 +$36 +119%
Libema Open: Benjamin Bonzi vs Alex de Minaur Jun 12 $10 +$2 +24%
Libema Open: Zhizhen Zhang vs Adrian Mannarino Jun 12 $35 +$25 +70%
HSBC Championships: Iva Jovic vs Amanda Anisimova Jun 12 $132 −$130 -99%
Stuttgart Open: Jiri Lehecka vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 12 $152 −$150 -98%
Libema Open: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Marton Fucsovics Jun 11 $50 +$17 +34%
Stuttgart Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 11 $50 +$20 +40%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 11 $16 +$21 +134%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 11, 4:30AM-4:45AM ET Jun 11 $16 −$15 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:45AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$52 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 11 $102 −$5 -5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 11 $52 −$50 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET Jun 11 $22 +$2 +10%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $402 +$370 +92%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 10 $571 −$548 -96%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 10 $502 +$25 +5%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 10, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 10 $118 −$118 -100%
Libema Open: Tallon Griekspoor vs Zhizhen Zhang Jun 10 $50 −$50 -99%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 4PM ET Jun 10 $104 +$145 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 10 $103 +$56 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 10 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 10 $309 −$300 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 10 $104 +$101 +98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 10 $516 +$370 +72%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 10, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 10 $102 +$51 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2AM ET Jun 10 $513 +$289 +56%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30AM-2:45AM ET Jun 10 $517 −$421 -81%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:15AM-2:30AM ET Jun 10 $1,030 −$1,000 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 10 $509 +$177 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 10 $511 −$500 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 10 $104 −$100 -96%
Washington Nationals vs. San Francisco Giants Jun 10 $36 −$35 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:45PM-10:50PM ET Jun 10 $106 −$100 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $621 +$175 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 10 $46 −$45 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 10 $102 +$44 +43%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $103 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 51¢ $103 1h
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 18¢ $20 9h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 68¢ $50 9h
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 80¢ $50 9h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $341 10h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $89 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET BUY Up 41¢ $52 13h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $21 19h
San Francisco Giants vs. Atlanta Braves BUY San Francisco Giants 40¢ $23 19h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET SELL Up 99¢ $406 29h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $19 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $1 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $8 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $15 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 77¢ $4 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 60¢ $103 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $14 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $2 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $5 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $3 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 53¢ $52 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $134 30h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8PM ET BUY Up 64¢ $26 30h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $103 33h
Will USA win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 69¢ $45 33h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $670.13 · official $670.19 (match) · 288 history records