Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:19:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d76…11ae sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 10d
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ net negative once open positions are counted! high turnover
Total PnL −$115 (-0%) realized +$79 · open −$194
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +60% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +28% what you keep after slip
Net edge+28%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate45%20W / 24L
Whale WR45%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,049per market
Trades / day8.6pace
Fees−$521est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$106now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1,877
7 days+$11
14 days−$569
30 days−$569
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 82% −$720
other 17% −$420
world 1% +$376
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)+44.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 41 +66.2% +50.3% 46% 44% -9.7%
≤30d 44 +59.7% +44.5% 45% 43% -10.9%
≤90d 44 +59.7% +44.5% 45% 43% -10.9%
all 44 +59.7% +44.5% 45% 43% -10.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover8.6 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +44.5% 43% -10.9%
10% ← realistic here +30.6% 34% -19.5%
15% +18.0% 30% -27.2%
20% +6.5% 20% -34.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 20% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
5% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +60% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 45% (≥$1,500) neutral
Persistence
early +96% → late +24% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$452 vs −$400 · ×1.13 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.94 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

10d coverage
Net worth$106
Realized+$79
Unrealized−$194
Win rate (resolved)45%
Wins / losses20 / 24
Whale WR (big bets)45%
Est. fees paid−$521
Open positions2
Markets (closed)44 / 46
History coverage10d
Avg bet$1,049
Trades / day8.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 44 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? Yes 19¢ 6¢ $200 $58 −$142 (-71%)
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? Yes 24¢ 12¢ $100 $48 −$52 (-52%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
New Zealand leading at halftime? Jun 22 $504 +$190 +38%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 22 $1,005 +$198 +20%
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 22 $1,008 +$177 +18%
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 22 $305 +$413 +135%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $508 −$35 -7%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 Jun 21 $506 −$26 -5%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,009 +$405 +40%
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $505 −$187 -37%
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? Jun 21 $507 +$412 +81%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $2,021 −$290 -14%
IR Iran leading at halftime? Jun 21 $51 −$36 -71%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $304 −$187 -61%
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $2,015 −$461 -23%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 21 $508 −$141 -28%
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Jun 21 $504 −$127 -25%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 0 Curaçao? Jun 21 $205 +$727 +355%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 2.5 Jun 21 $507 −$324 -64%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $1,007 −$384 -38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,005 +$186 +18%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Netherlands O/U 1.5 Jun 20 $1,619 +$1,012 +62%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: 1st Half O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $203 −$113 -56%
Exact Score: Türkiye 0 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $306 +$550 +180%
Exact Score: Türkiye 1 - 1 Paraguay? Jun 20 $306 −$300 -98%
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $511 −$157 -31%
Exact Score: Brazil 3 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $102 +$374 +365%
Exact Score: Brazil 2 - 0 Haiti? Jun 20 $103 −$100 -97%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $195 +$467 +239%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $2,014 +$186 +9%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1,008 −$1,000 -99%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,307 +$771 +23%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $1,013 +$740 +73%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,022 −$761 -25%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $1 $0 -2%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $2,014 −$159 -8%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $2,017 +$761 +38%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $1,013 +$91 +9%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $1,985 +$677 +34%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) Jun 16 $1,389 +$595 +43%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 1.5 Jun 16 $3,921 −$2,532 -65%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $1,514 −$1,500 -99%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 Jun 15 $4,822 −$100 -2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $682 −$673 -99%
United States vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 12 $305 −$16 -5%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $591 +$108 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 1 Egypt? BUY Yes 24¢ $102 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? SELL Yes 100¢ $694 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 SELL Under 100¢ $1,204 1h
Exact Score: New Zealand 1 - 0 Egypt? BUY Yes 19¢ $205 1h
New Zealand leading at halftime? BUY Yes 72¢ $504 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $0 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 88¢ $1,185 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 2.5 BUY Under 83¢ $1,005 1h
New Zealand vs. Egypt: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 74¢ $1,008 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 100¢ $718 3h
Exact Score: Uruguay 2 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 42¢ $305 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 48¢ $473 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 SELL Over 61¢ $480 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 4.5 BUY Over 63¢ $506 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 50¢ $508 3h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1,414 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners SELL Over 43¢ $318 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 11.5 Total Corners BUY Over 66¢ $505 4h
Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 70¢ $1,009 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? SELL Yes 100¢ $919 6h
Exact Score: Belgium 0 - 0 IR Iran? BUY Yes 54¢ $507 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 57¢ $1,731 6h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 7h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 65¢ $1,010 7h
IR Iran leading at halftime? SELL Yes 2¢ $15 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 20¢ $117 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 SELL Over 59¢ $1,554 7h
IR Iran leading at halftime? BUY Yes 7¢ $51 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 50¢ $304 7h
Belgium vs. IR Iran: O/U 1.5 BUY Over 75¢ $2,015 8h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $105.81 · official $105.81 (match) · 99 history records