Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T19:34:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d76…69e4 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
! high turnover
Total PnL +$131 (+10%) realized +$124 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +24% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +3% what you keep after slip
Net edge+3%after slip
Net WR60%break-even
Win rate60%28W / 19L
Drawdown68%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day11.7pace
Fees−$5est.
Kalshi-fit75%portable
Net worth$707now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
other 64% +$122
sports 26% −$5
crypto 10% +$5
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +60%
net ROI/market (all)+12.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 47 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 60% +7.5%
≤30d 47 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 60% +7.5%
≤90d 47 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 60% +7.5%
all 47 +23.9% +12.1% 60% 60% +7.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover11.7 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to10%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +12.1% 60% +7.5%
10% +1.3% 60% -2.8%
15% -8.5% 55% -12.2%
20% -17.4% 53% -20.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 40% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +19% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +24% · $-wt +19% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +48% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$13 vs −$13 · ×0.99 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.46 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$707
Realized+$124
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses28 / 19
Est. fees paid−$5
Open positions8
Markets (closed)47 / 55
History coverage7d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day11.7
Drawdown68%
Kalshi-fit75%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 8 History 47 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Yes 69¢ 68¢ $190 $189 −$1 (-1%)
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? Yes 64¢ 64¢ $150 $151 +$1 (+1%)
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 70¢ 68¢ $150 $147 −$3 (-2%)
Will France win on 2026-06-22? Yes 91¢ 90¢ $100 $99 −$1 (-1%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 13¢ 12¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-4%)
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Team Falcons 60¢ 100¢ $20 $33 +$13 (+67%)
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Yes 44¢ 44¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-1%)
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? Yes 43¢ 42¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? Jun 21 $27 −$27 -100%
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $22 −$22 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 21 $61 +$82 +134%
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P Jun 21 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 +$5 +50%
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? Jun 20 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -100%
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? Jun 20 $21 −$21 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Pla Jun 20 $101 −$101 -100%
Exact Score: Any Other Score? Jun 20 $20 +$20 +97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$29 +58%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 Playoff Jun 19 $18 +$26 +140%
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? Jun 19 $20 +$63 +307%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs G2 (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Playoffs Jun 19 $80 +$63 +79%
Counter-Strike: K27 vs SHISHKA (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Jun 19 $20 +$5 +27%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs KOLESIE (BO3) - European Pro League Se Jun 19 $50 +$43 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +60%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Jun 15 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +54%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +76%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +110%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-7:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:55AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$1 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET Jun 15 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:30AM-7:35AM ET Jun 15 $5 −$4 -67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$2 +114%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45AM-6:50AM ET Jun 15 $2 +$6 +292%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35AM-6:40AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +90%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:30AM-6:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +124%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25AM-6:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +134%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:20AM-6:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$1 +83%
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Jun 15 $1 +$1 +93%
Counter-Strike: Natus Vincere vs Team Falcons (BO3) - IEM Cologne Majo Jun 14 $1 +$1 +134%
Will Netherlands vs. Japan end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 +$2 +185%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $30 43m
Will Norway win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 43¢ $10 1h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 44¢ $31 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $51 1h
Will France win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 91¢ $100 1h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 1h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $101 2h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 13¢ $51 2h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $101 2h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $5 3h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 3h
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 69¢ $61 3h
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 70¢ $50 3h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 42¢ $61 5h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $6 7h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $6 7h
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs Team Falcons (BO5) - IEM Cologne Major Playof BUY Team Falcons 60¢ $20 8h
Will Spain vs. Saudi Arabia end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 9h
Will Saudi Arabia win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 4¢ $10 9h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 66¢ $10 24h
Exact Score: Netherlands 2 - 0 Sweden? BUY Yes 15¢ $21 25h
Exact Score: Any Other Score? BUY Yes 50¢ $20 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 94¢ $10 26h
Exact Score: Netherlands 1 - 1 Sweden? BUY Yes 13¢ $5 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 57¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands vs. Sweden end in a draw? BUY Yes 24¢ $10 26h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 58¢ $30 26h
Counter-Strike: Gentle Mates vs ex-RUBY (BO3) - CCT Europe Series #4 P BUY Gentle Mates 57¢ $20 27h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 1 Australia? BUY Yes 14¢ $21 47h
Exact Score: United States 2 - 0 Australia? BUY Yes 24¢ $20 47h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $706.97 · official $706.97 (match) · 121 history records