Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T06:19:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d74…96eb crypto 207 markets active 2h ago coverage 245d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL +$8,963 (+14%) realized +$8,963 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR43%break-even
Win rate54%111W / 96L
Whale WR81%big bets
Drawdown51%max
Avg bet$305per market
Trades / day3.6pace
Kalshi-fit81%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$5,063
7 days+$4,723
14 days+$3,396
30 days+$6,236
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 40% +$5,142
world 21% −$1,143
other 12% +$4,866
crypto 10% +$515
tech 5% −$1,320
finance 5% −$299
politics 4% +$177
culture 2% +$373
weather 0% +$35
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +43%
net ROI/market (all)-10.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +14.3% +3.4% 50% 50% +77.2%
≤30d 10 -22.5% -29.9% 40% 40% +31.0%
≤90d 32 +1.5% -8.2% 44% 34% +22.4%
all 207 -1.0% -10.4% 54% 43% +2.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover3.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.4% 43% +2.5%
10% -19.0% 35% -7.3%
15% -26.8% 27% -16.3%
20% -34.0% 21% -24.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 31% · top 2 48% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +35% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
20% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt +13% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 81% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +21% → late -23% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
2.9 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$147 vs −$86 · ×1.7 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.05 per $1 lost it wins $2.05
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

245d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$8,963
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses111 / 96
Whale WR (big bets)81%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)207 / 207
History coverage245d
Avg bet$305
Trades / day3.6
Drawdown51%
Kalshi-fit81%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 207 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $3,850 +$4,981 +129%
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $558 +$82 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $74 −$10 -13%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $448 −$331 -74%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? Jun 12 $2,004 −$1,417 -71%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 28°C on April 4? Jun 08 $4 −$4 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 26°C on April 5? Jun 08 $3 −$3 -100%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $90 in April? Jun 08 $352 −$352 -100%
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? Jun 08 $1,260 +$450 +36%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 30 $5,376 +$2,840 +53%
Will Trump and Xi handshake last 15 seconds or longer during the day o May 11 $189 +$150 +80%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meet Apr 30 $405 +$42 +10%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in April? Apr 12 $20 −$3 -14%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? Apr 07 $240 −$16 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 4, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Apr 05 $5 −$5 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on April 3? Apr 04 $3 +$7 +257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 4:45AM-4:50AM ET Apr 04 $1 −$1 -100%
US forces enter Iran by April 30? Apr 03 $390 −$190 -49%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 24°C on April 2? Apr 02 $3 −$3 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 21°C on April 1? Apr 01 $2 −$2 -72%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet Mar 30 $5,512 +$1,912 +35%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 18°C on March 27? Mar 27 $10 +$11 +110%
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on March 27? Mar 27 $6 +$9 +155%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 22°C on March 27? Mar 27 $7 −$6 -94%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 21°C on March 27? Mar 27 $13 −$1 -4%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 25°C on March 26? Mar 27 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $80 by end of March? Mar 26 $156 +$30 +19%
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 18°C on March 25? Mar 25 $18 +$45 +250%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of March? Mar 24 $1 $0 -9%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $85 by end of March? Mar 23 $2,378 +$27 +1%
Will MrBeast's next video get 59 million or more views on day 2? Mar 23 $27 +$2 +7%
Will inflation reach more than 4% in 2026? Mar 22 $2 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 8:00AM-8:15AM ET Mar 22 $3 −$2 -53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 1AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 5AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 19, 6PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 16, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Mar 22 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 20, 11AM ET Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1PM ET Mar 22 $9 −$9 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 18, 3AM ET Mar 22 $76 −$6 -7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 12AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 22, 2AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026 Mar 22 $6 −$6 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 17, 10PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 9PM ET Mar 22 $30 −$30 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 21, 8AM ET Mar 22 $26 −$26 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 8, 1AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - January 6, 3AM ET Mar 22 $145 −$83 -57%
Bitcoin Up or Down - February 13, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $8,831 2h
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes $640 7h
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $476 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? SELL No 15¢ $64 4d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $18 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 18¢ $11 5d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 17¢ $46 5d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 16¢ $117 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $448 6d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? SELL Yes $587 7d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 25¢ $360 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 24¢ $203 8d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 22¢ $794 9d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 29¢ $60 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? SELL No 95¢ $1,710 11d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 60¢ $480 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 78¢ $36 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 78¢ $729 12d
Israel closes its airspace by June 8? BUY No 78¢ $15 12d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $1,853 12d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 31¢ $255 13d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 27¢ $278 14d
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $2.4T? BUY Yes 26¢ $54 14d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $8,216 20d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 75¢ $44 24d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 56¢ $1,120 26d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 64¢ $320 27d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? BUY No 65¢ $3,892 27d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $91 27d
Will USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes $170 27d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1100 history records