Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T16:53:55+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.0
score
1D 0x1d74…6626 crypto 76 markets active 1h ago coverage 107d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$656 (+7%) realized +$656 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -5% what you keep after slip
Net edge-5%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate92%70W / 6L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown8%max
Avg bet$127per market
Trades / day2.7pace
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$280
7 days+$641
14 days+$793
30 days+$768
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$768
other 0% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-4.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 22 +9.1% -1.3% 100% 9% -1.6%
≤30d 53 +6.9% -3.2% 98% 6% -2.2%
≤90d 53 +6.9% -3.2% 98% 6% -2.2%
all 76 +5.2% -4.8% 92% 4% -2.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -4.8% 4% -2.3%
10% -13.9% 0% -11.7%
15% -22.2% 0% -20.2%
20% -29.9% 0% -28.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 15% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +8% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
93% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +5% · $-wt +8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +2% → late +9% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$12 vs −$15 · ×0.79 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×13.76 per $1 lost it wins $13.76
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

107d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$656
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)92%
Wins / losses70 / 6
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)76 / 76
History coverage107d
Avg bet$127
Trades / day2.7
Drawdown8%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 76 Trades
no open positions (1 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET Jun 21 $595 +$52 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 21 $728 +$70 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET Jun 21 $630 +$54 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $627 +$54 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:30PM-9:45PM ET Jun 20 $577 +$50 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 19 $493 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Jun 19 $491 +$43 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 18 $420 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 18 $417 +$36 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 18 $384 +$33 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 18 $54 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:30AM ET Jun 18 $350 +$30 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:00PM-2:15PM ET Jun 17 $96 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:45PM-2:00PM ET Jun 17 $267 +$23 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 17 $300 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 17 $261 +$39 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:15PM ET Jun 16 $133 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $129 +$11 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:45AM-8:00AM ET Jun 15 $118 +$10 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 14 $99 +$19 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 14, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 14 $7 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 1:15PM-1:30PM ET Jun 13 $104 +$9 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 4:00PM-4:15PM ET Jun 12 $99 +$9 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 6:45AM-7:00AM ET Jun 12 $95 +$8 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 12, 3:00AM-3:15AM ET Jun 12 $91 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 3:45AM-4:00AM ET Jun 11 $84 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 11, 4:00AM-4:15AM ET Jun 11 $84 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 2:30PM-2:45PM ET Jun 10 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET Jun 10 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 10, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET Jun 10 $93 +$7 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:00PM-11:15PM ET Jun 10 $66 +$6 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 10:30PM-10:45PM ET Jun 10 $66 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:30PM-12:45PM ET Jun 09 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 09 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET Jun 09 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 8:15AM-8:30AM ET Jun 09 $92 +$8 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:15PM-12:30PM ET Jun 08 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 12:00PM-12:15PM ET Jun 08 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET Jun 08 $75 +$7 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:15PM-8:30PM ET Jun 08 $38 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 8:30PM-8:45PM ET Jun 08 $38 +$3 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 07 $55 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 07 $54 +$6 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:45AM-1:00AM ET Jun 07 $10 +$1 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:30PM-6:45PM ET Jun 06 $58 +$5 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 6:45PM-7:00PM ET Jun 06 $58 −$58 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:30AM-11:45AM ET Jun 06 $48 +$5 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET Jun 06 $49 +$4 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 5:45AM-6:00AM ET Jun 06 $49 +$4 +9%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $95 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $50 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $28 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $63 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $10 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $56 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $29 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:15AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $23 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 11:00AM-11:15AM ET BUY Up 91¢ $728 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $389 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $12 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $16 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 5:15AM-5:30AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $213 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $34 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:30AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $36 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 364 history records