Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T07:13:58+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d72…9461
weather · 54 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$111 -4%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$108 · open +$161
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP weather specialist
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$301
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$161
Win rate (resolved)27%
Wins / losses13 / 36
Open positions5
Markets (closed)49 / 54
History coverage387d
Avg bet$57
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%
Chart Positions 5 History 49 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$172
7 days+$120
14 days+$120
30 days−$12
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? Yes 37¢ 100¢ $100 $266 +$166 (+166%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? No 79¢ 100¢ $10 $13 +$3 (+26%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? Yes 37¢ 36¢ $10 $10 −$0 (-2%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? Yes 32¢ 21¢ $10 $7 −$3 (-34%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? Yes 28¢ 17¢ $10 $6 −$4 (-40%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? Yes 39¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? Yes 22¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Yes 25¢ 0¢ $16 $0 −$16 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Yes 59¢ 0¢ $100 $0 −$100 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 7? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? No 11¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? Yes 51¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? Yes 32¢ 0¢ $163 $0 −$163 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 7? Yes 6¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Yes 37¢ 0¢ $45 $0 −$45 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Solana above $180 on May 23? No 8¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? No 8¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11? Yes 29¢ 0¢ $20 $0 −$20 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 8? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20? Yes 33¢ 0¢ $142 $0 −$142 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20? No 42¢ 0¢ $10 $0 −$10 (-100%)
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7? Yes 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? Jun 13 $158 +$172 +109%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? Jun 12 $60 −$19 -31%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? Jun 12 $112 −$100 -89%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? Jun 12 $52 +$2 +3%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? Jun 11 $51 +$49 +95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C on June 11? Jun 11 $52 −$12 -23%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 10? Jun 10 $46 +$89 +192%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 10? Jun 09 $46 −$45 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 9? Jun 08 $16 −$16 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 21? May 20 $51 −$50 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 20? May 19 $146 −$142 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 20? May 19 $10 −$10 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 19? May 17 $167 −$163 -98%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 19, 2026? May 17 $5 −$5 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 18? May 17 $21 −$20 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 17? May 17 $217 +$368 +170%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on May 16? May 17 $98 −$98 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on May 16? May 16 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on May 17? May 16 $52 −$7 -13%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C or higher on May 15? May 15 $52 +$84 +164%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 27°C on May 16? May 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 28°C on May 15? May 14 $1 −$1 -98%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on May 14? May 14 $43 +$97 +227%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 12? May 13 $20 +$16 +78%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C on May 12? May 13 $52 +$82 +159%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET May 10 $2 −$2 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 10, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET May 10 $1 −$1 -95%
Gemini 3.2 released by May 22, 2026? May 10 $5 −$5 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 9? May 10 $10 +$12 +116%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 10? May 10 $52 +$78 +152%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 25°C or higher on May 11? May 09 $21 −$20 -97%
Will there be more than 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher world May 09 $10 −$10 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 24°C on May 10? May 09 $10 −$10 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 27°C or higher on May 8? May 09 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the highest temperature in Tokyo be 26°C on May 8? May 09 $2 +$5 +245%
Will there be exactly 8 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 08 $6 −$6 -91%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 22°C or higher on May 9? May 08 $5 −$1 -21%
Will there be exactly 9 earthquakes of magnitude 5.5 or higher worldwi May 08 $6 −$6 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 18°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -97%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 20°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 8? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 8? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 8? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 29°C on May 7? May 06 $1 −$1 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 31°C on May 7? May 06 $2 −$2 -96%
Will the highest temperature in Jakarta be 30°C on May 7? May 06 $2 −$2 -95%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 21°C or higher on May 6? May 06 $10 +$19 +184%
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 24? May 24 $1,130 −$410 -36%
Solana above $180 on May 23? May 23 $3 −$3 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
weather 62% +$501
crypto 37% −$416
other 1% −$32
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 29°C on June 16? BUY Yes 32¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY No 79¢ $10 1h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 28°C on June 16? BUY Yes 37¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 16? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 26°C on June 14? BUY Yes 37¢ $103 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? SELL Yes 29¢ $80 8h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 36¢ $52 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 14? BUY Yes 34¢ $52 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 100¢ $281 22h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 38¢ $31 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 37¢ $18 43h
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $50 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL No 2¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY No 17¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? SELL Yes 28¢ $49 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY Yes 59¢ $102 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? SELL Yes 35¢ $40 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? SELL No 47¢ $11 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 12? BUY No 42¢ $10 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? SELL Yes 39¢ $53 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 42¢ $37 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 32¢ $28 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 27°C on June 13? BUY Yes 31¢ $31 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $2 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $4 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 24°C on June 12? BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 11? SELL Yes 100¢ $100 2d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 25°C on June 12? BUY Yes 37¢ $34 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-35.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 9 +5.0% -5.0% 44% 33% +9.2%
≤30d 19 -31.5% -38.0% 26% 21% -10.3%
≤90d 47 -25.3% -32.4% 28% 26% +7.0%
all 49 -28.3% -35.1% 27% 24% -14.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -35.1% 24% -14.2%
10% -41.3% 24% -22.5%
15% -47.0% 24% -29.9%
20% -52.2% 24% -36.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $301.49 · official $301.49 (match) · 179 history records