Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T02:07:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d71…eb98 politics 74 markets active 2h ago coverage 635d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$20 (-0%) realized −$20 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate4%3W / 71L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$237per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit65%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days−$0
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 73% −$16
other 14% −$2
economics 12% −$2
tech 1% $0
sports 0% $0
world 0% $0
finance 0% $0
culture 0% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 3 -0.1% -9.6% 33% 0% -9.6%
≤90d 10 +0.0% -9.5% 20% 0% -9.5%
all 74 -1.8% -11.2% 4% 0% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 0% -9.6%
10% -19.7% 0% -18.3%
15% -27.4% 0% -26.2%
20% -34.5% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 71% · top 2 91% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early -4% → late -0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
0.8 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.37 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.03 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

635d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$20
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)4%
Wins / losses3 / 71
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions0
Markets (closed)74 / 74
History coverage635d
Avg bet$237
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit65%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 74 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $54 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Jun 11 $54 $0 -0%
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $54 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? May 16 $54 $0 +1%
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? May 13 $54 $0 -0%
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? May 10 $54 $0 -0%
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 07 $54 $0 -0%
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 16 $55 $0 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m Apr 10 $55 $0 -0%
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $55 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Mar 19 $55 $0 -0%
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 16 $55 $0 +0%
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? Mar 14 $55 $0 +0%
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March Mar 12 $55 $0 +0%
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Mar 10 $55 $0 +0%
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 02 $55 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Yang win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Feb 24 $55 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Feb 05 $54 $0 -0%
Will DeepSeek have the best AI model on October 31? Nov 24 $54 $0 +0%
Will Kawhi Leonard lead the NBA in scoring? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will Shai Gilgeous-Alexander lead the NBA in Assists? Jan 29 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lamar Jackson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Lightning win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Jan 29 $3 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Hunter Biden in his first 100 days? Jan 28 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Brooklyn Nets win the 2025 NBA Finals? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will Sam LaPorta be the top Fantasy Tight End? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Joe Biden attend presidential inauguration? Jan 27 $2 $0 +0%
Will Tua Tagovailoa win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Justin Jefferson win NFL MVP for the 2024-25 season? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Jonathan Taylor be the top Fantasy Flex Player? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will the Packers win the NFC Championship? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Will Davante Adams be the top Fantasy Wide Receiver? Jan 27 $3 $0 +0%
Taylor Swift engaged in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Israel parliament dissolves in 2024? Jan 27 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chiefs win Super Bowl 2025? Dec 20 $0 $0 -0%
Will 'The Rise and Fall of a Midwest Princess' win Album of the Year? Dec 20 $1 $0 -2%
Will Stuttgart win the Bundesliga? Dec 20 $0 $0 -1%
Democrats win popular vote by 0-1%? Dec 20 $2 $0 +0%
Will Shedeur Sanders win the Heisman Trophy? Dec 20 $4 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Bulls win the Eastern Conference? Dec 09 $0 $0 -1%
Will Elon tweet 450 or more times Dec 6-13? Dec 09 $0 $0 -5%
Will Dak Prescott be the top Fantasy Quarterback? Dec 09 $0 $0 -0%
Will Nebraska win the 2025 College Football Playoff? Dec 09 $3 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk be a member of the Trump administration? Nov 26 $1 $0 -2%
Fed decreases interest rates by 75+ bps after January 2025 meeting? Nov 26 $0 $0 -1%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.70 before December? Nov 26 $0 $0 -4%
Will Trump nominate Larry Kudlow for Treasury Secretary? Nov 25 $3 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles FC win the MLS Cup? Nov 25 $4 $0 +0%
Will Clint Capela lead the NBA in Rebounds? Nov 18 $1 $0 -1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $54 1h
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 12h
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 98¢ $54 11d
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 98¢ $54 14d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $54 20d
Will Uruguay win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $54 21d
Will the Minnesota Timberwolves win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY No 99¢ $54 38d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? SELL No 100¢ $54 40d
Will Lithuania win Eurovision 2026? BUY No 100¢ $54 41d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $54 43d
Will Xavier Bertrand win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $54 43d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $54 46d
Will Ruben Gallego win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $54 46d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 100¢ $55 67d
Will Tarcisio de Freitas win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 100¢ $55 67d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m SELL No 100¢ $55 73d
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the April 2026 m BUY No 100¢ $55 73d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $55 83d
Will Curaçao win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $55 83d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? SELL No 99¢ $55 95d
Will Donald Trump Jr. win the 2028 US Presidential Election? BUY No 99¢ $55 96d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Tim Walz win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $55 98d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 100d
Will Baidu have the best AI model at the end of March 2026? BUY No 100¢ $55 100d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March SELL No 100¢ $55 102d
Will Tesla be the largest company in the world by market cap on March BUY No 100¢ $55 103d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 99¢ $55 104d
Will Senegal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 99¢ $55 104d
Will Andy Beshear win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $55 112d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 199 history records