Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:44:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d70…8691 crypto 80 markets active 231d ago coverage 253d
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable crypto specialistFading edge⚠ High turnoverP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$18,970,916 (+3623%) realized +$18,970,916 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%28W / 52L
Whale WR50%big bets
Drawdown93%max
Avg bet$6,546per market
Trades / day9.2pace
Kalshi-fit99%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 253d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$4,552
politics 0% +$146
sports 0% −$4
other 0% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-11.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d no closed markets
all 80 -1.8% -11.1% 35% 29% -11.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover9.2 tr/day
realistic slip~14%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -11.1% 29% -11.3%
10% ← realistic here -19.6% 18% -19.8%
15% -27.4% 11% -27.5%
20% -34.5% 9% -34.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 19% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI — too few recent
Fragile wins
18% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +1% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 50% (≥$7,397) neutral
Persistence
early +10% → late -13% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
20.6 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$3,486 vs −$1,787 · ×1.95 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.05 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

253d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$18,970,916
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses28 / 52
Whale WR (big bets)50%
Open positions0
Markets (closed)80 / 80
History coverage253d
Avg bet$6,546
Trades / day9.2
Drawdown93%
Kalshi-fit99%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 80 Trades
no open positions (2 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann Oct 31 $16 −$3 -20%
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So Oct 31 $18 −$1 -7%
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio Apr 23 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78000 and $80000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $15,199 −$15,179 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1400 and $1500 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1,955 −$1,955 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be less than $1300 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2,180 −$2,180 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1300 and $1400 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $2,150 −$2,150 -100%
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1,090 −$1,052 -96%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1700 and $1800 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1,063 −$1,024 -96%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $39 +$1 +3%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $910 −$730 -80%
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? Apr 20 $3,341 −$3,039 -91%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $392 −$83 -21%
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 18? Apr 20 $1,814 +$404 +22%
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1500 and $1600 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $1,496 −$492 -33%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? Apr 20 $58 +$15,947 +27261%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76000 and $78000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $15,686 −$15,686 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $80000 and $82000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $13,911 −$13,911 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $76000 on Apr 18? Apr 17 $15,687 −$15,687 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on April 13? Apr 16 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 13 $1 −$1 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $86000 and $88000 on Apr 11? Apr 13 $2 −$2 -100%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 11? Apr 13 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin above $84,000 on April 11? Apr 13 $87 +$13 +15%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 by March 31? Apr 01 $49 −$49 -100%
Will El Salvador/Bukele launch a memecoin before April? Apr 01 $118 −$118 -100%
Will Nigeria launch a memecoin before April? Apr 01 $301 −$301 -100%
Will XRP reach $3.50 in March? Apr 01 $1,522 −$1,522 -100%
Steak 'n Shake accepts Bitcoin before July? Mar 25 $132 −$132 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $0 $0 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 20? Mar 20 $31,689 +$13,963 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 19? Mar 19 $180 −$180 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 18? Mar 19 $282 −$250 -89%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 17? Mar 17 $7,397 +$2,667 +36%
Will Solana dip to $110 in March? Mar 16 $3,195 +$141 +4%
Dogecoin above $0.20 on March 14? Mar 16 $76 −$76 -100%
Solana above $145 on March 14? Mar 16 $1,200 −$1,200 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 14? Mar 16 $1,403 −$976 -70%
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $83000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $20,643 −$2,834 -14%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $83000 and $85000 on Mar 14? Mar 16 $19,143 +$10,795 +56%
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $85000 and $87000 on Mar 14? Mar 14 $18,075 +$2,076 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down on March 13? Mar 14 $28 −$22 -77%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,800.00 by March 31? Mar 11 $2 −$2 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.00 in March? Mar 10 $2,851 +$2,765 +97%
Bitcoin above $89,000 on March 14? Mar 10 $2,765 −$2,256 -82%
Will Dogecoin dip to $0.15 in March? Mar 10 $9,700 −$100 -1%
Will Solana dip to $120 in March? Mar 10 $213 −$213 -100%
Will XRP dip to $2.10 in March? Mar 09 $5,016 +$18,537 +370%
Will Solana dip to $130 in March? Mar 09 $21,576 −$1,902 -9%
Will Michael Saylor attend the March 7 Crypto Summit? Mar 09 $18 −$18 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann SELL Lazavik 28¢ $13 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Lazavik vs Niemann BUY Lazavik 35¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So SELL So 36¢ $16 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 38¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 42¢ $2 231d
Speed Chess QF: Nakamura vs So BUY So 42¢ $2 231d
Will the next Government of Canada be led by another party or coalitio BUY Yes 0¢ $1 422d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on Apr 18? BUY No 98¢ $49 427d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 18? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 427d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 18? BUY No 95¢ $1 427d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $84000 and $86000 on Apr 18? BUY No 4¢ $4 427d
Ethereum above $1,600 on April 18? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 427d
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1600 and $1700 on Apr 18? BUY No 91¢ $118 427d
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $86000 on Apr 18? BUY No 99¢ $306 427d
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $82000 and $84000 on Apr 18? BUY No 92¢ $37 427d
Bitcoin above $82,000 on April 18? BUY Yes 99¢ $300 427d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 2432 history records