Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T08:12:46+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d6b…5263 crypto 202 markets active 1h ago coverage 209d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$1,857 (-4%) realized −$1,821 · open −$36
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR29%break-even
Win rate35%70W / 129L
Whale WR21%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$209per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$4,595now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 71% −$1,558
other 27% −$817
sports 2% −$340
politics 0% −$50
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +29%
net ROI/market (all)-7.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 96 +8.1% -2.2% 47% 36% -13.9%
all 199 +2.1% -7.6% 35% 29% -16.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -7.6% 29% -16.6%
10% -16.5% 23% -24.6%
15% -24.6% 18% -31.9%
20% -31.9% 11% -38.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +2% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 21% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +0% → late +4% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
4.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$67 vs −$58 · ×1.17 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.63 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

209d coverage
Net worth$4,595
Realized−$1,821
Unrealized−$36
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses70 / 129
Whale WR (big bets)21%
Open positions3
Markets (closed)199 / 202
History coverage209d
Avg bet$209
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 199 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 11¢ 11¢ $1,961 $1,948 −$13 (-1%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 3¢ $1,507 $1,871 +$364 (+24%)
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 5¢ $1,163 $776 −$387 (-33%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 44 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8PM ET Mar 31 $83 −$83 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7PM ET Mar 30 $309 −$76 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6PM ET Mar 30 $364 −$70 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5PM ET Mar 30 $106 +$115 +108%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4PM ET Mar 30 $75 +$44 +59%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3PM ET Mar 30 $46 +$38 +82%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2PM ET Mar 30 $101 −$32 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12PM ET Mar 30 $166 −$66 -40%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11AM ET Mar 30 $358 −$153 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 10AM ET Mar 30 $278 −$11 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 9AM ET Mar 30 $243 −$156 -64%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 8AM ET Mar 30 $222 +$111 +50%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 7AM ET Mar 30 $321 +$78 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 5AM ET Mar 30 $303 −$79 -26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 6AM ET Mar 30 $194 −$60 -31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 4AM ET Mar 30 $166 +$73 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 3AM ET Mar 30 $89 +$14 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 2AM ET Mar 30 $289 −$98 -34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 1AM ET Mar 30 $100 −$28 -28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 12AM ET Mar 30 $199 +$39 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11PM ET Mar 30 $162 +$13 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10PM ET Mar 30 $179 −$18 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9PM ET Mar 30 $107 +$48 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8PM ET Mar 30 $179 −$74 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7PM ET Mar 29 $130 +$16 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6PM ET Mar 29 $72 +$9 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5PM ET Mar 29 $151 −$6 -4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4PM ET Mar 29 $121 −$16 -14%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3PM ET Mar 29 $221 −$27 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2PM ET Mar 29 $216 −$26 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1PM ET Mar 29 $146 +$53 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12PM ET Mar 29 $143 −$35 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 11AM ET Mar 29 $94 −$36 -38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 10AM ET Mar 29 $320 −$37 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 9AM ET Mar 29 $174 +$9 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 8AM ET Mar 29 $427 −$154 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7AM ET Mar 29 $129 +$56 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 6AM ET Mar 29 $691 +$65 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 5AM ET Mar 29 $329 +$16 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4AM ET Mar 29 $412 −$122 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 3AM ET Mar 29 $231 +$40 +17%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 2AM ET Mar 29 $446 −$147 -33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 1AM ET Mar 29 $307 −$130 -42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 12AM ET Mar 29 $559 −$124 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11PM ET Mar 29 $504 +$55 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 10PM ET Mar 29 $415 +$140 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 9PM ET Mar 29 $510 −$110 -22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 8PM ET Mar 29 $471 −$141 -30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 7PM ET Mar 28 $154 +$82 +53%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 6PM ET Mar 28 $493 −$160 -32%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 5¢ $257 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 3¢ $2,854 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $503 40h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 10¢ $503 9d
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 8¢ $20 19d
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 11¢ $483 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $152 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $13 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $15 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $19 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $29 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $47 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $3 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $26 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $0 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $10 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 2¢ $162 19d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $42 23d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 3¢ $958 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,594.54 · official $4,594.54 (match) · 1394 history records