Wallet analysis

2026-06-14T08:16:37+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d6a…a1a1
other · 650 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$995 -16%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$524 · open −$51
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP ⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$84
Realized−$524
Unrealized−$51
Win rate (resolved)28%
Wins / losses183 / 461
Est. fees paid−$6
Open positions6
Markets (closed)644 / 650
History coverage174d
Avg bet$9
Trades / day18.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit48%
Chart Positions 6 History 644 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$15
7 days−$92
14 days−$156
30 days−$417
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 21¢ 10¢ $53 $27 −$27 (-50%)
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 16¢ 14¢ $29 $26 −$2 (-7%)
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 26¢ 22¢ $22 $18 −$4 (-16%)
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 14¢ 4¢ $27 $8 −$19 (-71%)
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $4 $3 −$1 (-22%)
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? Yes 10¢ 19¢ $1 $2 +$1 (+95%)
XRP Up or Down - June 6, 3:25AM-3:30AM ET Up 15¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 10:30AM-10:45AM ET Up 7¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 7, 10:15AM-10:20AM ET Down 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? No 15¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:00AM-3:05AM ET Up 1¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Up 29¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Up 6¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Down 52¢ 0¢ $5 $0 −$5 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 4 to June 6, 2026? Yes 16¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 6, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Down 4¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 6, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Up 9¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 7, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Down 22¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-100%)
Solana Up or Down - June 5, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Down 2¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Up 54¢ 0¢ $3 $0 −$3 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Down 14¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Will Elon Musk post 190-214 tweets from May 23 to May 25, 2026? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 6, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Up 10¢ 0¢ $2 $0 −$2 (-100%)
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Up 23¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 14, 1:35PM-1:40PM ET Down 35¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-100%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 14 $26 +$8 +31%
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $11 −$2 -20%
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $6 −$1 -24%
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 13 $2 +$13 +647%
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? Jun 13 $4 −$1 -25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 13 $5 −$5 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 13 $8 −$1 -15%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:15AM-11:20AM ET Jun 13 $5 +$1 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$1 +24%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 13, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 13 $4 −$4 -93%
Solana Up or Down - June 13, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 13 $4 +$7 +181%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 13, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 13 $27 −$24 -90%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $55 +$4 +7%
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 11 to June 13, 2026? Jun 12 $4 $0 +4%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 12 $29 −$10 -36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET Jun 09 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 09 $6 −$4 -65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 09 $14 −$3 -24%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$6 +19%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 09 $34 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 9, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 09 $3 −$3 -96%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -16%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -36%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +7%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 08 $3 +$3 +94%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 5 to June 12, 2026? Jun 08 $8 −$1 -13%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 2 to June 9, 2026? Jun 08 $6 −$1 -12%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -93%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 5:45PM-6:00PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -93%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 $0 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -96%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$1 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -29%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 08 $8 −$1 -19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +0%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-5:00PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$1 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 +6%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$1 -71%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $4 +$2 +42%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:45PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -94%
XRP Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 −$2 -88%
Hyperliquid Up or Down - June 8, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 08 $2 +$7 +366%
Solana Up or Down - June 8, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 08 $4 −$1 -21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 8, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 08 $4 $0 -12%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 71% −$180
crypto 14% −$145
sports 9% +$5
tech 5% −$246
world 0% −$1
politics 0% −$7
finance 0% −$1
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 5¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 1h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 22¢ $5 1h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 30¢ $26 1h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 31¢ $9 10h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 23¢ $5 10h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $4 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 21¢ $11 11h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? SELL Yes 14¢ $13 11h
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 19¢ $8 14h
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 17¢ $4 14h
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 14h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $3 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 30¢ $8 14h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? SELL Yes 2¢ $5 14h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $9 15h
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 9¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 29¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 140-159 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 15h
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 9 to June 16, 2026? BUY Yes 25¢ $2 15h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)-27.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 115 -16.9% -24.8% 38% 24% -22.7%
≤30d 212 -32.7% -39.1% 28% 19% -33.2%
≤90d 330 -19.3% -26.9% 31% 22% -12.6%
all 644 -19.6% -27.3% 28% 19% -17.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover18.9 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -27.3% 19% -17.0%
10% -34.2% 14% -24.9%
15% -40.6% 9% -32.2%
20% -46.4% 7% -38.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $84.13 · official $85.19 · 3500 history records