Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:53:49+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d69…7540 crypto 55 markets active 1h ago coverage 362d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$341 (-13%) realized −$336 · open −$5
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate30%16W / 38L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$48per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit96%portable
Net worth$95now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days$0
14 days$0
30 days$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 51% +$26
world 32% −$192
other 9% −$150
sports 4% +$27
politics 3% −$80
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-16.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d no closed markets
≤30d no closed markets
≤90d 16 -17.0% -24.9% 25% 25% +32.7%
all 54 -7.6% -16.4% 30% 30% -22.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.4% 30% -22.6%
10% -24.4% 26% -30.0%
15% -31.7% 26% -36.8%
20% -38.4% 26% -43.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 57% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +47% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +16% → late -31% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.3 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$71 vs −$39 · ×1.8 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.76 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

362d coverage
Net worth$95
Realized−$336
Unrealized−$5
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses16 / 38
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions1
Markets (closed)54 / 55
History coverage362d
Avg bet$48
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit96%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 54 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Yes 67¢ 64¢ $100 $95 −$5 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 12 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? May 16 $3 −$3 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET Apr 30 $79 −$79 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5AM ET Apr 30 $16 −$15 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET Apr 30 $11 −$10 -94%
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score Apr 30 $70 +$54 +78%
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? Apr 29 $148 −$145 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET Apr 28 $104 +$88 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11AM ET Apr 28 $3 −$3 -93%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 28? Apr 28 $105 −$100 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Apr 22 $5 −$5 -94%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Apr 22 $10 +$21 +206%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Apr 21 $10 −$9 -94%
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov Apr 11 $14 −$14 -97%
Boxing: Conor Benn vs. Regis Prograis Apr 11 $14 −$14 -97%
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? Apr 08 $100 +$559 +559%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:10PM-4:15PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 22 $17 −$17 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Mar 22 $243 +$29 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET Mar 22 $5 +$8 +158%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Mar 22 $52 +$35 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Mar 22 $50 −$50 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Mar 22 $23 −$23 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Mar 22 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Mar 22 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:55PM-3:00PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 6:55AM-7:00AM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Mar 22 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Mar 22 $5 −$5 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Mar 22 $2 −$2 -100%
Andrew Cuomo gets the most first-choice votes in the 2025 New York Cit Mar 19 $80 −$80 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Mar 19 $12 −$12 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Mar 19 $190 +$38 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Mar 19 $40 +$56 +139%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Mar 19 $10 −$10 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:35PM-3:40PM ET Mar 19 $5 +$22 +447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$11 +107%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 19, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Mar 19 $10 +$9 +92%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 15, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Mar 15 $60 +$49 +82%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 67¢ $101 1h
Will Israel win Eurovision 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $3 35d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 6AM ET BUY Up 50¢ $79 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5AM ET BUY Down 12¢ $16 52d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 30, 5:40AM-5:45AM ET BUY Up 9¢ $11 52d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 9¢ $5 53d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 8¢ $10 53d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 99¢ $124 53d
Club Atlético de Madrid vs. Arsenal FC: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $70 53d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 12¢ $31 53d
Will Club Atlético de Madrid win on 2026-04-29? BUY Yes 31¢ $102 53d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET SELL Up 90¢ $192 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 12PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $104 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 28, 11AM ET BUY Down 2¢ $3 54d
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,300 on April 28? BUY Yes 35¢ $105 54d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:05PM-5:10PM ET BUY Down 39¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 22, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET BUY Down 17¢ $5 59d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $31 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Down 31¢ $10 60d
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 21¢ $10 60d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 2¢ $1 70d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 3¢ $3 70d
Boxing: Tyson Fury vs. Arslanbek Makhmudov BUY Makhmudov 17¢ $10 70d
Boxing: Conor Benn vs. Regis Prograis BUY Prograis 7¢ $3 71d
Boxing: Conor Benn vs. Regis Prograis BUY Prograis 10¢ $11 71d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? SELL Yes 100¢ $659 74d
US x Iran ceasefire by April 7? BUY Yes 15¢ $100 86d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET BUY Up 47¢ $17 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET SELL Up 61¢ $271 91d
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET BUY Up 54¢ $243 91d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $94.78 · official $94.78 (match) · 123 history records