Wallet analysis

2026-06-23T21:49:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d69…f09f sports 14 markets active 0h ago coverage 11d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$69 (+38%) realized +$50 · open +$19
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +71% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +55% what you keep after slip
Net edge+55%after slip
Net WR55%break-even
Win rate55%6W / 5L
Drawdown30%max
Avg bet$13per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$44now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 11d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 88% +$84
other 12% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +55%
net ROI/market (all)+54.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 +88.4% +70.4% 60% 60% +65.4%
≤30d 11 +71.2% +54.9% 55% 55% +42.9%
≤90d 11 +71.2% +54.9% 55% 55% +42.9%
all 11 +71.2% +54.9% 55% 55% +42.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +54.9% 55% +42.9%
10% +40.1% 55% +29.3%
15% +26.6% 55% +16.8%
20% +14.2% 55% +5.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 30% · top 2 48% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +58% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +71% · $-wt +58% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$20 vs −$9 · ×2.12 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×2.55 per $1 lost it wins $2.55
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$44
Realized+$50
Unrealized+$19
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses6 / 5
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)11 / 14
History coverage11d
Avg bet$13
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown30%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 11 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Over 32¢ 56¢ $25 $44 +$19 (+76%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 5 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) Jun 23 $15 +$15 +97%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $12 +$18 +145%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$15 +101%
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $10 −$10 -98%
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 Jun 23 $15 +$14 +93%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners Jun 23 $15 +$21 +139%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 23 $5 −$5 -98%
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) Jun 22 $5 +$36 +708%
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? Jun 22 $5 −$5 -98%
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? Jun 12 $17 −$17 -99%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
England vs. Ghana: O/U 0.5 AND England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corner BUY 33¢ $15 11m
England vs. Ghana: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 32¢ $26 1h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) SELL Portugal 100¢ $30 2h
Spread: Portugal (-4.5) BUY Portugal 50¢ $15 3h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 3+ goals BUY Yes 46¢ $10 3h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? SELL Yes 100¢ $30 16h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 10.5 Total Corners BUY Under 43¢ $10 16h
Will Algeria win on 2026-06-22? BUY Yes 40¢ $12 17h
Jordan vs. Algeria: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 49¢ $15 17h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 SELL Over 100¢ $29 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners SELL Over 100¢ $37 19h
Spread: Norway (-2.5) BUY Norway 18¢ $5 19h
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 8.5 Total Corners BUY Over 41¢ $15 20h
Norway vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 1.5 BUY Over 51¢ $15 20h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) SELL Argentina 100¢ $41 26h
Spread: Argentina (-1.5) BUY Argentina 12¢ $5 26h
Argentina vs. Austria: Both Teams to Score AND Argentina vs. Austria: BUY 35¢ $15 28h
Austria to score first vs. Argentina? BUY Yes 26¢ $5 28h
Canada to score first vs. Bosnia-Herzegovina? BUY Yes 63¢ $17 11d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $44.01 · official $59.01 · 21 history records