Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T02:04:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d63…045b world 64 markets active 1h ago coverage 525d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate31%19W / 43L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$35per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$3est.
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$2
14 days+$1
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 42% +$10
politics 20% −$1
other 16% −$4
sports 12% −$6
economics 9% $0
finance 1% −$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-13.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +0.3% -9.3% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 22 -2.1% -11.4% 41% 5% -8.4%
≤90d 60 -1.4% -10.8% 32% 2% -9.1%
all 62 -4.6% -13.7% 31% 2% -9.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -13.7% 2% -9.6%
10% -21.9% 2% -18.3%
15% -29.5% 2% -26.2%
20% -36.4% 0% -33.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 57% · top 2 69% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
95% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -7% → late -2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$1 · ×0.67 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.58 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

525d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)31%
Wins / losses19 / 43
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions2
Markets (closed)62 / 64
History coverage525d
Avg bet$35
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 62 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? No 98¢ 99¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Yes 37¢ 33¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-10%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 17 $32 $0 -0%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 15 $55 +$2 +3%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? Jun 14 $30 $0 +1%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 14 $5 $0 -3%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $34 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 12 $34 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 10 $31 +$1 +2%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $31 $0 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $66 −$1 -2%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by December 31? Jun 02 $32 $0 +0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 02 $34 $0 +1%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 31 $31 $0 +0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 30 $6 $0 +6%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? May 30 $32 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 29 $34 $0 +0%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 28 $63 $0 +1%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $68 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 27 $95 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? May 25 $15 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? May 24 $32 −$8 -25%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 23 $17 +$8 +46%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 23 $35 $0 +0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 17 $34 $0 +1%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 17 $20 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 16 $42 $0 -0%
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026? May 14 $4 −$1 -15%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 26 $32 $0 -0%
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 25 $124 +$1 +1%
Will the Los Angeles Lakers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $33 $0 -0%
Will the Detroit Pistons win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 24 $35 $0 +0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 23 $5 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Apr 22 $3 $0 +0%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Apr 22 $31 $0 +0%
Will Kevin Warsh be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 22 $11 $0 +0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 21 $35 $0 -0%
Will the Boston Celtics win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 21 $31 $0 -0%
Will Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $66 $0 +0%
Will China invade Taiwan by June 30, 2026? Apr 13 $66 $0 +0%
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 12 $32 $0 +0%
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nom Apr 09 $64 $0 -0%
Trump out as President by April 30? Apr 08 $34 $0 -0%
Netanyahu out by April 30? Apr 07 $39 $0 +0%
Will Trump visit China by April 30? Apr 07 $32 $0 -0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Apr 05 $31 $0 -0%
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 05 $34 $0 +0%
Will Ro Khanna win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Mar 31 $34 $0 +0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25+ bps after the April 2026 m Mar 30 $79 $0 -0%
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 mee Mar 30 $34 $0 -0%
Will the Charlotte Hornets win the 2026 NBA Finals? Mar 29 $1 $0 -13%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 95¢ $32 1h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 29¢ $22 27h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $2 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $16 29h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 27¢ $3 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $8 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $6 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? SELL Yes 85¢ $17 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31? BUY Yes 84¢ $29 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY Yes 6¢ $5 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 63¢ $34 3d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 63¢ $34 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $34 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $34 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $31 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL No 43¢ $3 4d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY No 43¢ $34 4d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $16 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 61¢ $15 6d
Israel closes its airspace by June 30? BUY No 60¢ $31 6d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $9 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? SELL No 98¢ $21 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $12 7d
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? BUY No 98¢ $19 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 97¢ $31 7d
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $31 7d
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? SELL No 80¢ $34 12d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $0.00 · 221 history records