Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T14:59:35+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d60…f6af crypto 421 markets active 1h ago coverage 11d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (57 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$685 (+2%) realized +$685 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +0% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR5%break-even
Win rate94%394W / 27L
Drawdown77%max
Avg bet$77per market
Trades / day57.1pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$103
7 days+$604
14 days+$574
30 days+$574
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$574
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (57 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +5%
net ROI/market (all)-9.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 138 +2.6% -7.2% 97% 5% -5.8%
≤30d 421 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 5% -7.9%
≤90d 421 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 5% -7.9%
all 421 +0.1% -9.4% 94% 5% -7.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover57.1 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -9.4% 5% -7.9%
10% ← realistic here -18.1% 0% -16.7%
15% -26.0% 0% -24.8%
20% -33.3% 0% -32.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
83% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +0% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$52 · ×0.1 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.41 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$685
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)94%
Wins / losses394 / 27
Open positions0
Markets (closed)421 / 421
History coverage11d
Avg bet$77
Trades / day57.1
Drawdown77%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 421 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 18 $186 +$7 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET Jun 18 $96 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 18 $154 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET Jun 18 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET Jun 18 $110 −$110 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET Jun 18 $200 +$6 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 18 $130 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET Jun 18 $125 +$10 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET Jun 18 $126 +$12 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET Jun 18 $62 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 18 $199 +$21 +10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 18 $55 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 18 $156 +$9 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 18 $103 +$7 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 17 $18 +$2 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 17 $70 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET Jun 17 $181 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 17 $98 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Jun 17 $92 +$4 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:35AM-9:40AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$8 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Jun 17 $116 +$7 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:20AM-8:25AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$19 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 17 $8 −$8 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 4:30AM-4:35AM ET Jun 17 $19 +$1 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 3:20AM-3:25AM ET Jun 17 $170 +$10 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET Jun 17 $142 +$10 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 2:25AM-2:30AM ET Jun 17 $201 +$10 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 17 $95 +$4 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET Jun 17 $201 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET Jun 17 $30 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 17 $79 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 17 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 16 $79 +$6 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 16 $184 +$5 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 11:05AM-11:10AM ET Jun 16 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 10:05AM-10:10AM ET Jun 16 $52 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 9:10AM-9:15AM ET Jun 16 $20 −$20 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:30AM-8:35AM ET Jun 16 $59 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:15AM-8:20AM ET Jun 16 $94 +$12 +13%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 8:05AM-8:10AM ET Jun 16 $48 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:45AM-5:50AM ET Jun 16 $40 +$2 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 5:35AM-5:40AM ET Jun 16 $79 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 16 $66 +$5 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 16, 3:10AM-3:15AM ET Jun 16 $19 +$1 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $60 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $125 +$6 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 16 $171 +$8 +5%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $179 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET BUY Down 96¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $49 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $47 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $154 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $80 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $34 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 7:40AM-7:45AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $77 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET BUY Down 97¢ $200 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Up 98¢ $130 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 3:15AM-3:20AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $125 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $115 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 2:05AM-2:10AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $11 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 1:10AM-1:15AM ET BUY Up 92¢ $62 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET BUY Down 90¢ $199 10h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $55 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $156 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $103 14h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $75 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $65 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $11 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $41 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $5 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $9 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Down 94¢ $70 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $181 17h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $98 21h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 17, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $92 22h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1066 history records