Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T10:31:40+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d60…453d
sports · 1297 markets active 0h ago
3.0score
+$22,689 +2%
TOTAL PnL · realized +$27,016 · open −$4,677
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP sports specialist⚠ High turnover
Copy trade Watchlist
Net worth$51,139
Realized+$27,016
Unrealized−$4,677
Win rate (resolved)60%
Wins / losses773 / 514
Whale WR (big bets)66%
Est. fees paid−$11,000
Open positions146
Markets (closed)1287 / 1297
Avg bet$763
Trades / day82.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit68%
Chart Positions 146 History 1287 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$9,660
7 days+$22,272
14 days+$11,742
30 days+$9,509
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Knicks vs. Spurs Spurs 65¢ 64¢ $7,000 $6,946 −$54 (-1%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 23¢ 19¢ $6,996 $5,785 −$1,211 (-17%)
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Yes 30¢ 81¢ $1,429 $3,925 +$2,496 (+175%)
Knicks vs. Spurs Knicks 36¢ 36¢ $2,400 $2,367 −$33 (-1%)
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? Yes 52¢ 52¢ $1,500 $1,486 −$14 (-1%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 Under 67¢ 62¢ $1,400 $1,301 −$99 (-7%)
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? No 77¢ 81¢ $1,000 $1,053 +$53 (+5%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian enrichment of uranium by June 30? No 82¢ 86¢ $1,000 $1,052 +$52 (+5%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Spurs 48¢ 48¢ $1,000 $998 −$2 (-0%)
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) Qatar 42¢ 42¢ $1,000 $988 −$12 (-1%)
Spurs vs. Knicks Knicks 54¢ 52¢ $1,000 $979 −$21 (-2%)
Will SpaceX’s IPO valuation be between 1.75T and 2.00T? Yes 81¢ 97¢ $800 $960 +$161 (+20%)
Will Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Yes 79¢ 89¢ $700 $787 +$87 (+12%)
Will SpaceX's valuation hit (LOW) $1.35T by June 30? No 70¢ 90¢ $600 $766 +$166 (+28%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 Over 64¢ 62¢ $700 $677 −$23 (-3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 Over 66¢ 64¢ $700 $676 −$24 (-3%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline Spurs 68¢ 62¢ $700 $638 −$62 (-9%)
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Yes 63¢ 96¢ $400 $607 +$207 (+52%)
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? No 62¢ 52¢ $730 $605 −$125 (-17%)
Will Trump agree to Iranian oil sanction relief by June 30? No 78¢ 46¢ $1,000 $599 −$401 (-40%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 Over 82¢ 80¢ $600 $591 −$9 (-1%)
Fed rate hike in 2026? Yes 33¢ 48¢ $400 $588 +$188 (+47%)
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 Under 59¢ 57¢ $600 $585 −$15 (-3%)
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? No 80¢ 46¢ $1,000 $581 −$419 (-42%)
Will Karen Bass win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Yes 66¢ 60¢ $600 $550 −$50 (-8%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
RC Celta de Vigo vs. Elche CF: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will Jeju SK FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $20 −$20 -100%
Baltimore Orioles vs. Miami Marlins Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will global temperature increase by between 1.20ºC and 1.24ºC in April Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
FC Ryūkyū vs. Kagoshima United FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $2 −$2 -100%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Will AC Reggiana 1919 win on 2026-05-08? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 216.5 Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will FC Gifu win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $300 −$300 -100%
Will ZED FC win on 2026-05-07? Jun 12 $30 −$30 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Philadelphia Phillies vs. Miami Marlins: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will AC Goianiense win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Timberwolves vs. Spurs: O/U 215.5 Jun 12 $400 −$400 -100%
Everton FC vs. Manchester City FC: O/U 2.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will the next Prime Minister of Hungary be István Kapitány? Jun 12 $1 −$1 -100%
Boston Red Sox vs. Detroit Tigers: O/U 6.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 31, 2026? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will a Gulf State carry out military action against Iran by April 30, Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will CDP Junior FC vs. Club Cerro Porteño end in a draw? Jun 12 $106 −$106 -100%
Knicks vs. 76ers: O/U 213.5 Jun 12 $190 −$190 -100%
Will AC Sparta Praha win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will RC Celta de Vigo win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $350 −$350 -100%
Jerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Lorenzo Musetti win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will there be between 10 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait o Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Chong Won-oh win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Novak Djokovic win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Will Torino FC vs. US Sassuolo Calcio end in a draw? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Pistons vs. Cavaliers: 1H O/U 108.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trump visit China by June 30? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Atlanta Braves vs. Seattle Mariners: O/U 9.5 Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Shandong Taishan FC vs. Shanghai Shenhua FC: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will CR Vasco da Gama win on 2026-05-06? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Drake officially release Iceman by May 15, 2026? Jun 12 $8 −$8 -100%
Will Arthur Fils win the 2026 Men's French Open? Jun 12 $10 −$10 -100%
Cerezo Ōsaka vs. V-Varen Nagasaki: O/U 4.5 Jun 12 $299 −$299 -100%
Will Málaga CF win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $110 −$110 -100%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the first round of the 2026 Peruvian president Jun 12 $107 −$107 -100%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Jun 12 $80 −$80 -100%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -100%
Will Pohang Steelers FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $200 −$200 -100%
Will Trabzonspor win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $100 −$100 -100%
Will US Sassuolo Calcio win on 2026-05-08? Jun 12 $33 −$33 -100%
Will Orlando Magic advance to the Conference Semifinals in the 2026 NB Jun 12 $29 −$29 -100%
Will Jared Kushner have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by May 31? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Chelsea FC vs. Nottingham Forest FC: O/U 3.5 Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Stade Lavallois Mayenne FC win on 2026-05-09? Jun 12 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Jun 12 $40 −$40 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
sports 79% +$20,025
other 19% +$4,582
tech 1% +$6,304
world 1% −$653
finance 0% −$12
politics 0% −$390
crypto 0% −$20
economics 0% +$149
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Knicks vs. Spurs: 1H Moneyline BUY Spurs 68¢ $707 2m
Spread: Spurs (-5.5) BUY Knicks 52¢ $507 2m
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Spurs 48¢ $1,016 4m
Spurs vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 54¢ $1,014 4m
Will the San Antonio Spurs win the 2026 NBA Finals? BUY Yes 19¢ $3,073 7m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? AND Will Colombia win on 2026-06-1 BUY 4¢ $10 12m
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 82¢ $302 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Knicks 36¢ $408 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $3,031 17m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 219.5 BUY Under 59¢ $607 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 221.5 BUY Under 67¢ $1,414 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 211.5 BUY Over 64¢ $708 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 210.5 BUY Over 66¢ $707 18m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 208.5 BUY Over 70¢ $202 19m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 205.5 BUY Over 76¢ $302 19m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 202.5 BUY Over 82¢ $603 19m
Knicks vs. Spurs: O/U 200.5 BUY Over 89¢ $401 20m
Knicks vs. Spurs BUY Spurs 65¢ $4,042 20m
Will Sweden win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 52¢ $1,522 20m
HSBC Championships: Elena Rybakina vs Tatjana Maria BUY Elena Rybakina 86¢ $201 21m
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 49¢ $406 22m
Spread: Switzerland (-1.5) BUY Qatar 42¢ $1,017 23m
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Bosnia and Herzegovina win on BUY 50¢ $101 27m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? AND Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? AN BUY 14¢ $41 28m
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $303 29m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $101 30m
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 81¢ $201 30m
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $203 30m
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 60¢ $202 31m
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $203 32m
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)-14.3%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 156 -45.7% -50.9% 31% 29% +4.7%
≤30d 1060 -6.8% -15.7% 58% 56% -8.5%
≤90d 1287 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 57% -6.8%
all 1287 -5.3% -14.3% 60% 57% -6.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover82.8 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.3% 57% -6.8%
10% -22.5% 42% -15.7%
15% ← realistic here -30.0% 26% -23.9%
20% -36.9% 16% -31.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $51,138.88 · official $51,489.24 (match) · 3500 history records