Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T12:11:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.5
score
1D 0x1d5f…634d other 232 markets active 0h ago coverage 53d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 53d only
✗ bot/MM pace (61 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$31,140 (+13%) realized +$25,164 · open +$5,976
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +17% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -13% what you keep after slip
Net edge-13%after slip
Net WR45%break-even
Win rate61%91W / 57L
Whale WR84%big bets
Drawdown12%max
Avg bet$1,011per market
Trades / day61.1pace
Fees−$124est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$99,616now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$1,061
7 days+$12,170
14 days+$19,235
30 days+$24,089
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 37% +$15,577
economics 24% +$12,464
politics 13% +$791
crypto 11% +$2,052
finance 6% +$5,658
sports 5% +$7,465
world 4% +$700
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (61 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +45%
net ROI/market (all)+6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +4.0% -5.9% 72% 48% +10.7%
≤30d 91 +3.8% -6.1% 60% 48% +11.8%
≤90d 148 +17.2% +6.0% 61% 45% +16.0%
all 148 +17.2% +6.0% 61% 45% +16.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover61.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +6.0% 45% +16.0%
10% -4.1% 27% +4.9%
15% ← realistic here -13.4% 22% -5.3%
20% -21.9% 20% -14.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 14% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +27% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
25% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +27% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 84% (≥$900) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +39% → late -5% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
10.7 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$540 vs −$204 · ×2.65 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×4.24 per $1 lost it wins $4.24
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

53d coverage
Net worth$99,616
Realized+$25,164
Unrealized+$5,976
Win rate (resolved)61%
Wins / losses91 / 57
Whale WR (big bets)84%
Est. fees paid−$124
Open positions93
Markets (closed)148 / 232
History coverage53d ⚠
Avg bet$1,011
Trades / day61.1
Drawdown12%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 93 History 148 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 80¢ 74¢ $13,642 $12,665 −$977 (-7%)
Will Andy Burnham be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2026? Yes 97¢ 98¢ $8,382 $8,437 +$54 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce no change at the July 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 97¢ $5,184 $5,885 +$701 (+14%)
Fed rate cut by July 2026 meeting? No 92¢ 99¢ $4,613 $4,955 +$342 (+7%)
Xi Jinping out before 2027? No 94¢ 93¢ $4,680 $4,667 −$12 (-0%)
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026? No 74¢ 86¢ $3,700 $4,332 +$632 (+17%)
Bank of England rate hike in 2026? No 44¢ 76¢ $1,964 $3,405 +$1,441 (+73%)
Will the Bank of Israel decrease the Bank of Israel Interest Rate after the July decision? Yes 78¢ 88¢ $2,436 $2,765 +$329 (+14%)
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? No 91¢ 92¢ $2,730 $2,745 +$15 (+1%)
Will the Bank of Mexico announce no change at the June meeting? Yes 86¢ 99¢ $2,353 $2,688 +$335 (+14%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $57,500 in June? No 81¢ 88¢ $2,202 $2,399 +$197 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $55,000 in June? No 89¢ 95¢ $2,017 $2,159 +$142 (+7%)
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meeting? Yes 93¢ 94¢ $2,102 $2,127 +$25 (+1%)
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the July 2026 meeting? No 85¢ 98¢ $1,662 $1,925 +$263 (+16%)
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the July interest rate announcement? Yes 88¢ 96¢ $1,740 $1,905 +$165 (+9%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 22-28? No 86¢ 94¢ $1,556 $1,701 +$145 (+9%)
Will inflation reach more than 4.5% in 2026? No 62¢ 80¢ $1,238 $1,615 +$377 (+30%)
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? Yes 85¢ 96¢ $1,429 $1,611 +$182 (+13%)
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (HIGH) $120 by end of June? No 92¢ 100¢ $1,464 $1,593 +$129 (+9%)
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting? Yes 73¢ 56¢ $2,054 $1,592 −$462 (-22%)
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after July 2026 meeting? No 84¢ 97¢ $1,215 $1,398 +$184 (+15%)
Will inflation reach more than 6% in 2026? No 85¢ 94¢ $1,200 $1,336 +$135 (+11%)
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June meeting? Yes 84¢ 92¢ $1,052 $1,159 +$107 (+10%)
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? No 80¢ 99¢ $783 $974 +$191 (+24%)
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30? No 75¢ 92¢ $749 $915 +$166 (+22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 29 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the April me Jun 24 $938 −$938 -100%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 24 $102 −$221 -217%
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? Jun 24 $890 −$412 -46%
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 me Jun 24 $35 −$2 -6%
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the 2026 Colombian presidential ele Jun 23 $1,762 +$232 +13%
Will Argentina win Group J in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $213 +$87 +41%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Chancellor of the Exchequer of the UK i Jun 23 $236 +$183 +77%
Will Silver (SI) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 23 $132 +$11 +8%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 22-28? Jun 22 $112 −$112 -100%
Starmer out by July 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,147 +$269 +12%
Starmer out by December 31, 2026? Jun 22 $9,506 +$1,644 +17%
Starmer out by October 31, 2026? Jun 22 $2,922 +$250 +9%
Starmer out by August 31, 2026? Jun 22 $13 +$1 +10%
Will Bitcoin dip to $62,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $430 +$70 +16%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $72,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $470 +$30 +6%
Will Bitcoin reach $68,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $215 +$285 +133%
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 June 15-21? Jun 22 $860 +$140 +16%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election by 9% or more? Jun 21 $209 +$166 +80%
Will Germany win Group E in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 21 $201 +$99 +49%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $102 −$33 -33%
Will UMich Consumer Sentiment be between 43.0 and 45.9 in June? Jun 19 $50 −$42 -84%
Will the Bank of Russia decrease the key rate after the June Meeting? Jun 19 $1,797 +$591 +33%
Will Andy Burnham win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $5,879 +$581 +10%
Will Rebecca Shepherd win the 2026 Makerfield by-election? Jun 19 $9,517 +$483 +5%
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after June 2026 meeting? Jun 18 $11,523 +$6,726 +58%
Bank of England increases interest rates by 25 bps after June 2026 mee Jun 18 $1,401 +$162 +12%
Will the Bank of Brazil decrease the Selic rate after June 2026 meetin Jun 18 $2,659 +$1,966 +74%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil’s June 2026 meeting? Jun 17 $76 −$75 -100%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $35 −$34 -97%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $75 by end of June? Jun 16 $284 −$138 -49%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia make no change to the target for th Jun 16 $1,618 +$312 +19%
Will the Reserve Bank of Australia increase the target for the cash ra Jun 16 $662 +$136 +21%
Bank of Japan increases interest rates by 25 bps after the June 2026 m Jun 16 $3,379 +$1,380 +41%
Will the Bank of Israel make no change to the Bank of Israel Interest Jun 16 $171 −$93 -54%
Will Bitcoin dip to $58,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $920 +$80 +9%
Will Bitcoin dip to $60,000 June 8-14? Jun 15 $456 +$144 +32%
Will the ECB announce a 25 bps increase at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $9,618 +$1,307 +14%
ECB rate hike in 2026? Jun 11 $2,680 +$740 +28%
Will the ECB announce no change at the June 2026 meeting? Jun 11 $1,519 −$177 -12%
Will Argentina's monthly inflation in May 2026 be between 2.2% and 2.4 Jun 10 $29 −$29 -100%
Will the Bank of Canada announce no change at the June meeting? Jun 10 $834 +$2,234 +268%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,200 by end of June? Jun 10 $1,315 −$4 -0%
Will Core CPI MoM be 0.2% in May? Jun 10 $51 +$49 +96%
Will annual inflation be 4.2% in May? Jun 10 $513 +$696 +136%
Will Core CPI YoY be 2.9% in May? Jun 10 $12 +$24 +196%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.5% in May? Jun 10 $563 +$438 +78%
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.6% in May? Jun 09 $89 −$89 -100%
Will Gold (GC) hit (LOW) $4,300 by end of June? Jun 09 $2,694 −$2,162 -80%
Will annual inflation be 4.1% in May? Jun 09 $54 −$54 -100%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 37¢ $135 8m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $0 41m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $0 41m
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $70 by end of June? SELL No 49¢ $1 43m
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 34¢ $5 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 34¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 34¢ $164 1h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 36¢ $169 2h
Will the Bank of Korea increase the base rate after the July Meeting? BUY Yes 88¢ $4 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 39¢ $26 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 39¢ $0 2h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 39¢ $39 2h
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Au BUY No 84¢ $25 4h
Reserve Bank of Australia increases interest rates by 25 bps at the Au BUY No 84¢ $33 4h
Will the South African Reserve Bank hike by 25 bps at the July 2026 me SELL Yes 54¢ $33 5h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $1 7h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $9 7h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 7h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $6 7h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $83 8h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $12 9h
No change in Bank of England’s interest rates after July 2026 meeting? BUY Yes 95¢ $52 9h
No change in Reserve Bank of Australia's interest rates at the August BUY Yes 82¢ $37 9h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? BUY No 92¢ $100 9h
Will the Central Bank of Colombia announce an increase at the June mee BUY Yes 92¢ $92 10h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $3,900 in June? BUY No 80¢ $160 11h
Will Gold (XAUUSD) hit (LOW) $4,000 in June? SELL No 60¢ $75 12h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be between 0% and 2% in May? BUY No 92¢ $129 13h
No change in Bank of Japan’s interest rates after the July 2026 meetin BUY Yes 95¢ $133 13h
Will Durable Goods Orders MoM be below -4% in May? BUY Yes 45¢ $4 13h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $99,616.06 · official $99,616.49 (match) · 3500 history records