Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T01:55:02+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d5f…ad02 crypto 82 markets active 0h ago coverage 2d
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ bot/MM pace (84 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ only 2d of captured history — unreliable✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$57 (-1%) realized −$4 · open −$53
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -5% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -27% what you keep after slip
Net edge-27%after slip
Net WR2%break-even
Win rate85%69W / 12L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$50per market
Trades / day84.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 2d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$95
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (84 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +2%
net ROI/market (all)-14.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 81 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 2% -10.5%
≤30d 81 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 2% -10.5%
≤90d 81 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 2% -10.5%
all 81 -5.4% -14.4% 85% 2% -10.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover84.2 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -14.4% 2% -10.5%
10% ← realistic here -22.6% 0% -19.1%
15% -30.1% 0% -26.9%
20% -37.0% 0% -34.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -5% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -12% → late +1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$11 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.68 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

2d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$53
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses69 / 12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)81 / 82
History coverage2d
Avg bet$50
Trades / day84.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 81 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET Down 98¢ 46¢ $100 $48 −$53 (-53%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET Jun 27 $97 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 27 $94 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 27 $93 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 27 $90 +$3 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET Jun 27 $87 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET Jun 27 $84 +$3 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 27 $82 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 27 $80 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 27 $78 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 27 $76 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 27 $75 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 26 $69 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET Jun 26 $68 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET Jun 26 $66 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET Jun 26 $65 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 26 $63 +$2 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 26 $61 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 26 $100 −$42 -41%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 26 $59 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 26 $58 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET Jun 26 $57 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 26 $55 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 26 $54 +$1 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 26 $52 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 26 $53 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 26 $51 +$2 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 26 $50 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:35PM-5:40PM ET Jun 26 $8 $0 -2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 26 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 26 $13 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 26 $12 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 26 $12 +$1 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 26 $11 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:10PM-3:15PM ET Jun 26 $10 +$1 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 3:00PM-3:05PM ET Jun 26 $391 −$39 -10%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 26 $383 +$7 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 26 $242 +$5 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 26 $141 +$3 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:30PM-1:35PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 -0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:35PM-12:40PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 26 $15 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 26 $10 $0 +1%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $100 0m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $31 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:30PM-9:35PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $66 20m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $94 35m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $93 50m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $90 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $87 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:35PM-8:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $84 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $82 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $80 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $78 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $76 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $75 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $69 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:40PM-7:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $68 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:35PM-7:40PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $66 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $65 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 98¢ $22 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $41 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $61 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Up 55¢ $59 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Up 91¢ $100 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $7 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $53 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $58 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:40PM-6:45PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $57 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 96¢ $55 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $54 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $52 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 26, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $53 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $47.61 · official $35.32 · 181 history records