Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T04:57:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d5e…19d3 crypto 718 markets active 1h ago coverage 50d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! high turnover
Total PnL −$425 (-7%) realized −$425 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR79%break-even
Win rate79%566W / 152L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$8per market
Trades / day14.2pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$9
14 days+$9
30 days−$490
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$490
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +79%
net ROI/market (all)-8.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 585 +1.2% -8.5% 79% 79% -8.1%
≤30d 717 +1.1% -8.6% 79% 79% -17.1%
≤90d 718 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 79% -17.1%
all 718 +1.1% -8.5% 79% 79% -17.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover14.2 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -8.5% 79% -17.1%
10% -17.3% 53% -25.1%
15% -25.3% 15% -32.3%
20% -32.6% 5% -38.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 7% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -8% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -8% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +4% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$2 vs −$11 · ×0.19 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.7 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

50d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$425
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)79%
Wins / losses566 / 152
Open positions0
Markets (closed)718 / 718
History coverage50d
Avg bet$8
Trades / day14.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 718 Trades
no open positions (152 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET Jun 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 16 $1 $0 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +46%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:30PM-2:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:15PM-2:20PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:10PM-2:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:05PM-2:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 2:00PM-2:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +33%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:10PM-12:15PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +25%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +34%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:30AM-11:35AM ET Jun 15 $1 −$1 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20AM-11:25AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +20%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET Jun 15 $1 $0 +23%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:25PM-11:30PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:20PM-11:25PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:15PM-11:20PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:05PM-11:10PM ET BUY Down 76¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:30PM-10:35PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET BUY Down 82¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $1 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:30PM-8:35PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 76¢ $1 4h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 5h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:50PM-6:55PM ET BUY Up 79¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 72¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:35PM-6:40PM ET BUY Up 75¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 78¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 6h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $1 7h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:45PM-4:50PM ET BUY Down 81¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:30PM-4:35PM ET BUY Up 82¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Down 67¢ $1 8h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:50PM-3:55PM ET BUY Up 68¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:30PM-3:35PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 3:25PM-3:30PM ET BUY Up 80¢ $1 9h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 1284 history records