Wallet analysis

2026-06-27T06:57:22+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d5e…c96c crypto 343 markets active 1h ago coverage 84d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$313 (-3%) realized −$313 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate54%184W / 159L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$31per market
Trades / day7.3pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17
7 days−$17
14 days−$17
30 days−$17
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% −$635
other 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)-12.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 12 +9.3% -1.1% 75% 67% -13.5%
≤30d 12 +9.3% -1.1% 75% 67% -13.5%
≤90d 343 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 51% -15.1%
all 343 -3.8% -12.9% 54% 51% -15.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -12.9% 51% -15.1%
10% -21.3% 47% -23.2%
15% -28.9% 40% -30.6%
20% -35.8% 32% -37.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 4% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -6% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
4% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -6% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -6% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$18 vs −$25 · ×0.73 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.84 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

84d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$313
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses184 / 159
Open positions0
Markets (closed)343 / 343
History coverage84d
Avg bet$31
Trades / day7.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 343 Trades
no open positions (48 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET Jun 27 $67 −$67 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$11 +32%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$3 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$12 +35%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$1 +11%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 27 $33 $0 -1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$10 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$13 +39%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET Jun 27 $33 −$29 -86%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 27 $33 +$7 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET Jun 27 $14 +$13 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET May 23 $33 +$9 +28%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET May 23 $33 +$13 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET May 23 $33 +$8 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:10AM-7:15AM ET May 23 $33 +$9 +26%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET May 08 $34 −$32 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET May 08 $47 +$40 +84%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET May 08 $24 +$7 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET May 08 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 8, 5:40PM-5:45PM ET May 08 $24 +$28 +116%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:40PM-10:45PM ET May 07 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET May 07 $11 +$3 +29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET May 07 $23 −$22 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:20PM-10:25PM ET May 07 $24 −$1 -3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:15PM-10:20PM ET May 07 $19 +$18 +99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET May 07 $12 +$6 +52%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 10:00PM-10:05PM ET May 07 $9 +$3 +36%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET May 07 $24 −$24 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 9:50PM-9:55PM ET May 07 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET May 05 $24 +$11 +44%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET May 05 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 5, 11:45AM-11:50AM ET May 05 $24 +$16 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET May 03 $24 −$23 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 3, 12:00AM-12:05AM ET May 03 $52 −$50 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:55PM-12:00AM ET May 03 $26 +$1 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:50PM-11:55PM ET May 03 $31 +$28 +89%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET May 03 $26 +$17 +67%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 11:40PM-11:45PM ET May 03 $26 −$25 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Apr 29 $23 +$12 +51%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 21, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Apr 21 $25 −$24 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Apr 18 $12 −$11 -95%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Apr 18 $10 −$10 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET Apr 18 $30 −$7 -24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 18, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Apr 18 $27 −$26 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:30AM-9:35AM ET Apr 17 $20 −$19 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:25AM-9:30AM ET Apr 17 $36 −$35 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Apr 17 $44 −$42 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET Apr 17 $20 +$24 +120%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 8:35AM-8:40AM ET Apr 17 $46 −$44 -96%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 39¢ $33 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 2:00AM-2:05AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $33 57m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $44 59m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET BUY Up 44¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET SELL Up 52¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:50AM-1:55AM ET BUY Up 45¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET SELL Up 62¢ $45 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:45AM-1:50AM ET BUY Up 43¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET SELL Up 46¢ $15 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:40AM-1:45AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 40¢ $6 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET SELL Down 49¢ $27 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET BUY Down 44¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET SELL Down 65¢ $43 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:30AM-1:35AM ET BUY Down 47¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET SELL Up 76¢ $46 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:25AM-1:30AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET SELL Up 69¢ $42 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:20AM-1:25AM ET BUY Up 52¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET SELL Up 6¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET BUY Up 38¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 60¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET SELL Down 91¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 27, 1:00AM-1:05AM ET BUY Down 45¢ $14 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET SELL Up 72¢ $42 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:25AM-7:30AM ET BUY Up 53¢ $33 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET SELL Up 82¢ $46 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:20AM-7:25AM ET BUY Up 57¢ $33 34d
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 23, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET SELL Up 77¢ $40 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 683 history records