Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T12:41:01+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d5c…55df world 181 markets active 5h ago coverage 115d ⚠
UNRELIABLEdata unreliable world specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 115d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$2,531 (+1%) realized +$10,572 · open −$8,041
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -37% what you keep after slip
Net edge-37%after slip
Net WR26%break-even
Win rate42%76W / 103L
Whale WR62%big bets
Drawdown32%max
Avg bet$1,140per market
Trades / day28.4pace
Fees−$62est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$1,640now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 115d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% +$19,562
finance 9% −$9,092
other 3% −$1,109
sports 2% −$2,357
politics 1% −$79
crypto 0% +$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +26%
net ROI/market (all)-23.1%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 38 -30.0% -36.6% 32% 13% -13.4%
≤30d 85 -29.3% -36.1% 34% 18% -10.1%
≤90d 160 -19.4% -27.1% 42% 24% -6.9%
all 179 -15.0% -23.1% 42% 26% -2.4%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover28.4 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -23.1% 26% -2.4%
10% -30.4% 16% -11.8%
15% ← realistic here -37.2% 11% -20.3%
20% -43.3% 8% -28.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 18% · top 2 30% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
38% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt +8% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR 62% (≥$856) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -1% → late -29% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
12.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$525 vs −$242 · ×2.17 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.6 per $1 lost it wins $1.6
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

115d coverage
Net worth$1,640
Realized+$10,572
Unrealized−$8,041
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses76 / 103
Whale WR (big bets)62%
Est. fees paid−$62
Open positions2
Markets (closed)179 / 181
History coverage115d ⚠
Avg bet$1,140
Trades / day28.4
Drawdown32%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 179 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? No 8¢ 1¢ $8,641 $1,077 −$7,563 (-88%)
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? Yes 14¢ 8¢ $1,040 $563 −$477 (-46%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 4 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $3,874 −$314 -8%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? Jun 16 $4,401 −$4,014 -91%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? Jun 16 $7,759 +$1,144 +15%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 16 $4,245 −$2,073 -49%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by October 31, 2026? Jun 15 $528 −$420 -80%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? Jun 15 $1,890 −$531 -28%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 15 $373 +$24 +6%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Jun 15 $2,092 +$127 +6%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 15 $406 −$28 -7%
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026? Jun 15 $68 −$38 -55%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $80 in June? Jun 14 $1,549 −$695 -45%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 15? Jun 14 $25 −$16 -63%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $110 in June? Jun 14 $337 −$147 -44%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 15? Jun 14 $15 −$9 -61%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $83 on June 15? Jun 14 $10 +$2 +16%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $95 in June? Jun 14 $28 +$2 +6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $115 in June? Jun 13 $10 −$4 -38%
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30? Jun 12 $12,553 +$7,238 +58%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by September 30? Jun 12 $4,078 −$1,141 -28%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in June? Jun 12 $21 −$20 -97%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026? Jun 11 $337 +$7 +2%
Bab el-Mandeb Strait effectively closed by June 30? Jun 11 $513 −$78 -15%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 11? Jun 11 $84 −$82 -97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 11? Jun 11 $12 −$4 -34%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 11? Jun 11 $24 −$24 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 11? Jun 11 $114 −$113 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 11? Jun 11 $270 −$269 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $85 on June 10? Jun 11 $100 +$8 +8%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $84 on June 10? Jun 10 $200 +$6 +3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $86 on June 10? Jun 10 $201 +$25 +12%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $87 on June 10? Jun 10 $178 +$54 +30%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $88 on June 10? Jun 10 $134 −$28 -21%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $90 on June 10? Jun 10 $101 −$3 -3%
Will Ukraine re-enter Obratne or Temyrivka by December 31? Jun 10 $157 +$7 +4%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on June 10? Jun 10 $102 −$37 -36%
Will Ukraine re-enter Kamianske by June 30? Jun 10 $622 −$103 -17%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 10? Jun 10 $314 −$111 -35%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $105 in June? Jun 10 $775 −$400 -52%
Will Ukraine re-enter Uspenivka by December 31? Jun 09 $2 $0 -3%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $91 on June 8? Jun 08 $202 +$37 +18%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $89 on June 8? Jun 08 $5 +$5 +97%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $96 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $97 on June 8? Jun 08 $31 −$31 -100%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $95 on June 8? Jun 08 $306 −$303 -99%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $94 on June 8? Jun 08 $416 −$410 -98%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $92 on June 8? Jun 08 $312 −$237 -76%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 8? Jun 08 $203 −$184 -91%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $1,121 +$81 +7%
WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above $93 on June 5? Jun 06 $204 −$204 -100%
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026? Jun 06 $1,656 −$32 -2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $519 4h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $519 4h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $350 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $350 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 4¢ $109 5h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 7¢ $109 5h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $369 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $244 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $125 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 3¢ $110 6h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $110 6h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $105 7h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 9¢ $105 7h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $241 8h
Will Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 8¢ $241 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $275 8h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $275 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $62 8h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 8¢ $63 8h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $400 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $107 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $0 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 1¢ $107 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $48 10h
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $100 in June? SELL Yes 5¢ $48 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $100 10h
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? BUY No 2¢ $56 10h
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $100 10h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $3 11h
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026? SELL No 9¢ $597 11h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,639.93 · official $1,639.93 (match) · 3500 history records