Wallet analysis

2026-06-29T21:43:44+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d5c…4f26 sports 756 markets active 1h ago coverage 128d ⚠
TRAPdo not copy sports specialist⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 127d only
✗ negative after realistic slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$35,360 (-4%) realized −$34,249 · open −$1,111
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -29% what you keep after slip
Net edge-29%after slip
Net WR39%break-even
Win rate39%297W / 470L
Whale WR48%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,181per market
Trades / day23.1pace
Fees−$8,383est.
Kalshi-fit91%portable
Net worth$1,899now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$17,949
7 days−$21,053
14 days−$12,812
30 days−$13,537
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 92% −$29,300
other 7% +$2,934
crypto 1% −$630
world 0% +$1,390
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +39%
net ROI/market (all)-13.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 54 -64.9% -68.3% 17% 17% -51.9%
≤30d 220 -12.8% -21.1% 35% 35% -15.5%
≤90d 567 -3.1% -12.4% 38% 38% -12.6%
all 767 -4.5% -13.6% 39% 39% -13.6%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover23.1 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -13.6% 39% -13.6%
10% -21.9% 39% -21.9%
15% ← realistic here -29.4% 38% -29.4%
20% -36.3% 38% -36.3%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -4% · $-wt -4% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 48% (≥$1,500) neutral
Persistence
early -8% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.8 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,524 vs −$1,051 · ×1.45 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×0.92 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

128d coverage
Net worth$1,899
Realized−$34,249
Unrealized−$1,111
Win rate (resolved)39%
Wins / losses297 / 470
Whale WR (big bets)48%
Est. fees paid−$8,383
Open positions3
Markets (closed)767 / 756
History coverage128d ⚠
Avg bet$1,181
Trades / day23.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit91%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 767 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Netherlands win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 5¢ $660 $1,010 +$350 (+53%)
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Germany 48¢ 14¢ $1,750 $492 −$1,258 (-72%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 2¢ $600 $397 −$203 (-34%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 385 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Delray Beach Open: Rinky Hijikata vs Frances Tiafoe Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
LoL: Top Esports vs Team WE (BO5) - LPL Knights Rivals Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Rockets vs. Hornets Jun 29 $1,000 −$1,000 -100%
Argentina Open: Tomas Barrios vs Thiago Seyboth Wild Jun 29 $700 −$700 -100%
Bulls vs. Nets Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Rio Open: Francisco Cerundolo vs Mariano Navone Jun 29 $250 −$250 -100%
Celtics vs. Warriors Jun 29 $650 −$650 -100%
Clippers vs. Lakers Jun 29 $750 −$750 -100%
Syracuse Orange vs. Duke Blue Devils Jun 29 $65 −$65 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Trail Blazers Jun 29 $400 −$400 -100%
Counter-Strike: Vitality vs Aurora Gaming (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Play Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Spread: Spurs (-12.5) Jun 29 $500 −$500 -100%
Will Cardi B perform during the Super Bowl LX halftime show? Jun 29 $800 −$800 -100%
LoL: Cloud9 vs FlyQuest (BO5) - LCS Lock In Playoffs Jun 29 $150 −$150 -100%
Map Handicap: G2 (-1.5) vs Heroic (+1.5) Jun 29 $1,430 −$1,430 -100%
Grizzlies vs. Nuggets Jun 29 $24 −$24 -100%
Cavaliers vs. Kings Jun 29 $350 −$350 -100%
Counter-Strike: NIP vs GamerLegion (BO3) - RES Showdown Spring Playoff Jun 29 $276 −$276 -100%
Men's Group A - Canada vs. Switzerland Jun 29 $75 −$75 -100%
LoL: Nongshim Red Force vs DN Freecs (BO3) - LCK Cup Play-In Jun 29 $1,500 −$1,500 -100%
Suns vs. Spurs Jun 29 $850 −$850 -100%
Counter-Strike: Spirit vs FURIA (BO3) - IEM Krakow Playoffs Jun 29 $1,456 −$1,467 -101%
US strikes Iran by February 9, 2026? Jun 29 $50 −$50 -100%
Counter-Strike: FURIA vs FUT Esports (BO3) - PGL Cluj-Napoca Group Sta Jun 29 $1,120 −$1,120 -100%
Rotterdam Open: Nicolai Budkov Kjaer vs Jaume Munar Jun 29 $825 −$825 -100%
Argentina Open: Andrea Pellegrino vs Tomas Etcheverry Jun 29 $70 −$70 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $666 −$650 -98%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? Jun 29 $1,373 −$1,350 -98%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? Jun 28 $2,837 +$2,125 +75%
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 Jun 28 $1,729 −$173 -10%
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals Jun 28 $204 −$200 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? Jun 28 $2,028 −$2,000 -99%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $509 −$500 -98%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $764 −$750 -98%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $461 −$450 -98%
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $358 −$350 -98%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? Jun 26 $359 −$350 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? Jun 26 $2,130 −$2,100 -99%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 26 $255 −$250 -98%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 25 $1,269 −$1,250 -98%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $1,214 −$1,200 -99%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 25 $1,019 −$1,000 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $1,722 +$1,313 +76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $915 +$1,161 +127%
Will South Africa vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 25 $307 −$300 -98%
Scotland vs. Brazil: Both Teams to Score AND Will Brazil win on 2026-0 Jun 25 $1,013 +$766 +76%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 25 $760 +$556 +73%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $764 +$1,263 +165%
Spread: Morocco (-2.5) Jun 24 $713 −$700 -98%
Spread: Croatia (-1.5) Jun 23 $1,526 −$1,500 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Germany 48¢ $1,777 1h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 19¢ $154 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 45¢ $508 5h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-29? BUY No 43¢ $865 22h
Will Japan win on 2026-06-29? BUY Yes 18¢ $512 22h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 52¢ $254 26h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 28h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 41¢ $1,556 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $507 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 56¢ $760 28h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-28? BUY Yes 59¢ $810 32h
South Africa vs. Canada: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 44¢ $1,729 32h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals BUY Yes 30¢ $204 45h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 44¢ $254 45h
Cristiano Ronaldo: 1+ goals AND Portugal leading at halftime? AND Will BUY 24¢ $300 46h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 54¢ $1,774 46h
Will Spain win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 43¢ $509 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 33¢ $102 2d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $153 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 38¢ $509 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $103 3d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 16¢ $359 3d
Will Senegal win on 2026-06-26? BUY No 20¢ $358 3d
Will Norway win on 2026-06-26? BUY Yes 12¢ $359 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 47¢ $203 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 50¢ $102 3d
Spread: United States (-1.5) BUY United States 29¢ $255 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $152 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 51¢ $355 3d
Will United States win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 55¢ $1,318 3d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,898.96 · official $1,898.96 (match) · 3500 history records