Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T17:24:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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1D 0x1d57…bd62 crypto 270 markets active 0h ago coverage 7d ⚠
BOTnot copyable crypto specialistFresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 7d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (468 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$12,934 (-45%) realized −$13,032 · open +$98
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +558% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +406% what you keep after slip
Net edge+406%after slip
Net WR51%break-even
Win rate73%519W / 190L
Whale WR60%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$106per market
Trades / day467.6pace
Kalshi-fit93%portable
Net worth$639now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 7d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 97% +$338
other 3% +$220
world 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (468 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +51%
net ROI/market (all)+495.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 688 +571.9% +507.9% 73% 52% -6.0%
≤30d 709 +557.7% +495.0% 73% 51% -6.1%
≤90d 709 +557.7% +495.0% 73% 51% -6.1%
all 709 +557.7% +495.0% 73% 51% -6.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover467.6 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +495.0% 51% -6.1%
10% ← realistic here +438.1% 46% -15.1%
15% +386.1% 46% -23.3%
20% +338.4% 46% -30.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 5% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -5% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
30% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +558% · $-wt -5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 60% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +22% → late +1091% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$16 vs −$51 · ×0.32 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.87 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$639
Realized−$13,032
Unrealized+$98
Win rate (resolved)73%
Wins / losses519 / 190
Whale WR (big bets)60%
Open positions26
Markets (closed)709 / 270
History coverage7d ⚠
Avg bet$106
Trades / day467.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit93%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 26 History 709 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Joshua Kimmich score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 36¢ 36¢ $158 $158 +$0 (+0%)
Will Frenkie de Jong score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 72¢ 80¢ $91 $101 +$10 (+11%)
Will Dan Ndoye score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 34¢ 48¢ $65 $92 +$27 (+42%)
Will Hakan Çalhanoğlu score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 64¢ 59¢ $99 $92 −$7 (-7%)
Will Alexis Mac Allister score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 59¢ 65¢ $56 $62 +$5 (+10%)
Will Yoane Wissa score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 20¢ 41¢ $25 $50 +$26 (+103%)
Will Ahmed Fathi score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 11¢ $10 $38 +$28 (+266%)
Will Igor Thiago score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? No 39¢ 56¢ $20 $29 +$9 (+44%)
Will N'Golo Kanté score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 7¢ $2 $5 +$3 (+133%)
Will Ismaïla Sarr score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 61¢ 36¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-40%)
Will Colombia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 1¢ $1 $2 +$0 (+37%)
Will a player representing Uruguay be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $1 $1 +$1 (+100%)
Will Uruguay score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+0%)
Will Czechia score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $2 $1 −$1 (-50%)
Will Austria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+17%)
Will Iran score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Ecuador score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+0%)
Will Senegal score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-16%)
Will Ørjan Nyland record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 10¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+885%)
Will a player representing Egypt be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 1¢ $0 $0 +$0 (+100%)
Will Morocco score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-58%)
Will Türkiye score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-38%)
Will Egypt score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-50%)
Will Algeria score the most goals at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 0¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-83%)
Will Édouard Mendy record the most clean sheets at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $0 $0 −$0 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 474 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 23, 11:25AM-11:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$57 -13950%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 10:00AM-10:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +538%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 1:35AM-1:40AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1450%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$8 -5683%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +536%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 8, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$15 -10738%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 10, 3:20PM-3:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +71%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 3:55PM-4:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$198 +480672%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 2, 10:10AM-10:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$5 +2657%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 1:15PM-1:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$14 +3301%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 29, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +1554%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$7 +1613%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 16, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +781%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 20, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$23 +4994%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:50PM-12:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$18 +4138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 20, 8:25AM-8:30AM ET Jun 15 $1 +$14 +1404%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$18 -4051%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$5 +6830%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 11:10AM-11:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$9 -2103%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$370 -230903%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 31, 9:40PM-9:45PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1852%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 22, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +535%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 1, 1:45PM-1:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$76 +18732%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 29, 1:25PM-1:30PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$4 -1352%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 2, 5:10AM-5:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$34 +37933%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 24, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$6 +3447%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 25, 2:30AM-2:35AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$120 +59609%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 24, 12:20PM-12:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$48 +10021%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +551%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$14 +6295%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$49 +13609%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 18, 3:05PM-3:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$118 +62298%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +129%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 1:50PM-1:55PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$2 +544%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 26, 9:55AM-10:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$3 +4275%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 28, 12:45PM-12:50PM ET Jun 15 $0 $0 +73%
XRP Up or Down - March 17, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$1 +1256%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 21, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET Jun 15 $0 +$7 +1628%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 30, 11:40AM-11:45AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$6 +1711%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 17, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$23 +19519%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$158 +100056%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 4:25AM-4:30AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$21 -8090%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET Jun 15 $2 +$15 +779%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 13, 1:20PM-1:25PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$33 -7427%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 3, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$5 -2200%
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 1, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$1 -257%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 21, 8:00AM-8:05AM ET Jun 15 $0 −$71 -30127%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 17, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 15 $0 +$41 +16480%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 22, 10:35PM-10:40PM ET Jun 15 $0 −$20 -8718%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $24 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $6 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $33 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $7 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET SELL Down 48¢ $5 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 44¢ $36 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 45¢ $32 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET BUY Down 46¢ $18 14m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET SELL Up 16¢ $17 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $7 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $20 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $4 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $26 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $2 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET SELL Up 48¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $31 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 45¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET BUY Up 46¢ $18 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 49¢ $33 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 15, 11:50AM-11:55AM ET SELL Up 48¢ $19 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $638.70 · official $638.71 (match) · 3500 history records