Wallet analysis

2026-06-24T16:40:12+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d56…be85 weather 202 markets active 2h ago coverage 540d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$10 (-0%) realized −$10 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -12% what you keep after slip
Net edge-12%after slip
Net WR1%break-even
Win rate54%107W / 91L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$20per market
Trades / day0.7pace
Kalshi-fit84%portable
Net worth$78now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
weather 31% $0
other 19% −$3
politics 15% −$3
crypto 13% −$2
tech 10% +$1
culture 7% $0
sports 3% −$2
world 1% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% −$3
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +1%
net ROI/market (all)-11.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.2% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 60 +0.0% -9.5% 57% 0% -9.5%
≤90d 159 -1.2% -10.7% 48% 0% -9.7%
all 198 -2.5% -11.7% 54% 1% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.7% 1% -9.8%
10% -20.2% 1% -18.4%
15% -27.9% 0% -26.3%
20% -35.0% 0% -33.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 27% · top 2 38% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
98% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -5% → late +0% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×0.35 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.42 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

540d coverage
Net worth$78
Realized−$10
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses107 / 91
Open positions4
Markets (closed)198 / 202
History coverage540d
Avg bet$20
Trades / day0.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit84%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 198 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $27 $27 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $26 $26 −$0 (-0%)
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? No 100¢ 100¢ $20 $20 +$0 (+0%)
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? No 100¢ 100¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? Jun 16 $24 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? Jun 04 $24 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? Jun 04 $8 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? Jun 04 $17 $0 -0%
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? Jun 03 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 -0%
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect Jun 03 $13 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? Jun 03 $6 $0 +0%
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J Jun 03 $12 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? Jun 03 $13 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? Jun 03 $17 $0 +0%
Will "The Crash" be the top US Netflix movie this week? Jun 02 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 74-75°F on June 1? Jun 02 $11 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? Jun 02 $16 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 30°C on June 1? Jun 02 $15 $0 +0%
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los Jun 01 $39 $0 -0%
Will "Dandelion - Ella Langley" be the Billboard 200 #1 album for the Jun 01 $19 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be between 68-69°F on June 1? Jun 01 $18 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump publicly insult Melania Trump by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will Rae Huang win the 2026 Los Angeles mayoral election? Jun 01 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 39°C on May 31? Jun 01 $13 $0 +0%
Will Paloma Valencia win the 1st round of the 2026 Colombian president Jun 01 $21 $0 -0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 2 and 3 days? Jun 01 $17 $0 -0%
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwi May 31 $26 $0 -0%
Will Dogecoin reach $0.15 in May? May 31 $21 $0 -0%
Will Google have the second best AI model at the end of May 2026? May 30 $24 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $70,000 on May 29? May 30 $23 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be 55°F or below on May 30? May 30 $29 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C or higher on May 29? May 29 $26 $0 -0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 29? May 29 $5 $0 +0%
Will the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 23°C on May 29? May 29 $8 $0 +0%
Will Ant Middleton summit Everest in between 3 and 4 days? May 29 $5 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 37°C on May 29? May 29 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Jeddah be 38°C or higher on May 28? May 29 $23 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $80,000 on May 28? May 29 $26 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 80-81°F on May 28? May 28 $18 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on May 28? May 28 $19 $0 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $90 on May 28? May 28 $24 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 14°C or below on May 28? May 28 $22 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Denver be 61°F or below on May 28? May 28 $12 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 28°C on May 28? May 28 $32 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Los Angeles be between 56-57°F on May May 28 $6 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Wuhan be 26°C on May 28? May 28 $6 $0 -0%
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 23°C on May 27? May 28 $11 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 33°C on May 27? May 28 $7 $0 +0%
Will the price of XRP be between $1.00 and $1.10 on May 27? May 28 $15 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 21°C on May 27? May 27 $29 $0 +0%
Will the price of Ethereum be above $1,800 on May 27? May 27 $9 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in San Francisco be 72°F or higher on May May 27 $13 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the White House call a full lid by 6:30PM on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $27 1h
Will the price of Ethereum be greater than $2,100 on June 25? BUY No 100¢ $5 3h
Will the highest temperature in Austin be between 88-89°F on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $26 7h
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 31°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $5 10h
Will the highest temperature in Warsaw be 24°C on June 24? BUY No 100¢ $20 23h
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? SELL No 100¢ $11 11d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $15 20d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? SELL No 100¢ $2 20d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $1 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $24 21d
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $16 21d
Will the highest temperature in Singapore be 29°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $8 21d
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 28°C on June 4? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 22°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $17 21d
Will MrBeast's next video get 56 million or more views on day 4? BUY No 100¢ $9 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $6 21d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J SELL No 100¢ $12 21d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? SELL No 100¢ $13 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? SELL No 100¢ $17 21d
Will the highest temperature in Seoul be 23°C on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $6 21d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $9 22d
Will the Democratic Party of Korea win 0 or 1 seats in South Korea’s J BUY No 100¢ $12 22d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on June 3? BUY No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $8 22d
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 23°C on June 2? BUY No 100¢ $6 22d
Will Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 1? BUY No 100¢ $16 22d
Will Betty Yee advance from the 2026 California Governor primary elect BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Mandy Ghusar advance from the CA-04 primary election? BUY No 100¢ $13 22d
Will Lindsey Horvath finish second in the first round of the 2026 Los SELL No 100¢ $1 23d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $78.08 · official $78.08 (match) · 462 history records