Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T02:50:28+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.5
score
1D 0x1d55…9a1f other 381 markets active 2h ago coverage 369d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage
Total PnL −$108 (-7%) realized −$108 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -6% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -15% what you keep after slip
Net edge-15%after slip
Net WR37%break-even
Win rate55%209W / 170L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day1.7pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit54%portable
Net worth$5now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$4
7 days−$10
14 days−$10
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 49% −$55
other 33% −$79
sports 7% +$12
politics 5% +$3
tech 3% +$4
culture 2% +$2
world 0% +$4
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +37%
net ROI/market (all)-14.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 21 -26.7% -33.7% 33% 33% -27.1%
≤30d 26 +24.5% +12.6% 38% 38% -5.7%
≤90d 74 +5.5% -4.6% 51% 38% -5.8%
all 379 -5.8% -14.8% 55% 37% -16.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.7 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -14.8% 37% -16.1%
10% -23.0% 27% -24.1%
15% -30.4% 19% -31.5%
20% -37.2% 14% -38.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 6% · top 2 11% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +4% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
33% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -6% · $-wt -7% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -14% → late +3% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.2 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.58 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

369d coverage
Net worth$5
Realized−$108
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)55%
Wins / losses209 / 170
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions2
Markets (closed)379 / 381
History coverage369d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day1.7
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit54%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 379 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? Yes 72¢ 88¢ $2 $3 +$0 (+23%)
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? Yes 63¢ 62¢ $3 $2 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 107 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $1 +$2 +145%
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? Jun 17 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $4 +$2 +57%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $1 −$1 -98%
Spread: Spain (-2.5) Jun 15 $2 −$2 -99%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? Jun 14 $3 −$3 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $3 +$3 +79%
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $3 +$2 +60%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $4 −$4 -99%
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1 −$1 -97%
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? Jun 13 $3 +$4 +108%
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? Jun 12 $2 +$5 +250%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $2 $0 -3%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $4 +$2 +44%
Will PSG win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 31 $1 +$10 +1024%
Will Al Hilal Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 25 $3 +$1 +31%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? May 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? May 20 $1 +$4 +344%
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? May 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-12? May 11 $3 −$3 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +57%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-05-10? May 11 $3 +$2 +65%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:35PM-9:40PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 9, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET May 10 $2 $0 +1%
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club win on 2026-05-07? May 10 $3 $0 +16%
FC Bayern München vs. Paris Saint-Germain FC: Both Teams to Score May 07 $7 +$2 +27%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:35AM-12:40AM ET May 06 $3 −$3 -100%
Will FC Bayern München win on 2026-05-06? May 06 $3 −$3 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:30AM-12:35AM ET May 06 $3 +$1 +37%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:25AM-12:30AM ET May 06 $2 −$2 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 6, 12:15AM-12:20AM ET May 06 $8 −$1 -12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - May 2, 5:20PM-5:25PM ET May 02 $2 $0 +4%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC win on 2026-04-08? May 02 $3 +$3 +86%
Will Paris Saint-Germain FC vs. Liverpool FC end in a draw? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -98%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 08 $3 −$3 -99%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -95%
Will Elon Musk post 240-259 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026? Apr 01 $3 −$3 -100%
Will Turkey qualify for the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 01 $2 +$1 +47%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $4 +$11 +277%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from March 24 to March 31, 2026? Mar 31 $4 −$2 -56%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Colombia win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 72¢ $2 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? SELL Yes 100¢ $3 1h
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 40¢ $1 4h
Will England vs. Croatia end in a draw? BUY Yes 26¢ $3 10h
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 77¢ $5 12h
Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 63¢ $4 26h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 36¢ $1 2d
Spread: Spain (-2.5) BUY Spain 58¢ $2 2d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 1 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 15¢ $2 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 0 Tunisia? BUY Yes 12¢ $1 3d
Exact Score: Sweden 2 - 1 Tunisia? BUY Yes 11¢ $1 3d
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 44¢ $3 3d
Will Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador end in a draw? BUY Yes 34¢ $3 3d
Netherlands vs. Japan: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 55¢ $3 3d
Will Germany vs. Curaçao end in a draw? BUY Yes 4¢ $1 3d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 59¢ $4 4d
Will Qatar win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 6¢ $1 4d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 47¢ $2 5d
Will Canada vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $2 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? SELL Yes 53¢ $2 5d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 62¢ $3 5d
Will United States win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 48¢ $1 5d
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 63¢ $3 5d
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? BUY Yes 53¢ $2 6d
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? BUY Yes 69¢ $4 9d
Will Al Nassr Saudi Club vs. Damac Saudi Club end in a draw? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 28d
Will Damac Saudi Club win on 2026-05-21? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 28d
Will AFC Bournemouth vs. Manchester City FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 22¢ $1 30d
Will AFC Bournemouth win on 2026-05-19? BUY Yes 21¢ $1 30d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $5.17 · official $5.17 (match) · 788 history records