Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T04:45:25+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d52…9b87 other 41 markets active 2h ago coverage 11d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$21 (-13%) realized −$18 · open −$3
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -8% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR25%break-even
Win rate25%9W / 27L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$4per market
Trades / day4.9pace
Fees−$1est.
Kalshi-fit22%portable
Net worth$10now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$7
7 days−$20
14 days−$20
30 days−$20
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 66% −$28
sports 18% −$15
world 17% +$20
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +25%
net ROI/market (all)-16.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 16 -11.3% -19.7% 38% 38% -24.4%
≤30d 36 -8.1% -16.9% 25% 25% -22.3%
≤90d 36 -8.1% -16.9% 25% 25% -22.3%
all 36 -8.1% -16.9% 25% 25% -22.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.9 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -16.9% 25% -22.3%
10% -24.8% 22% -29.8%
15% -32.1% 19% -36.6%
20% -38.7% 19% -42.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 39% · top 2 61% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -14% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -8% · $-wt -14% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +5% → late -21% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$6 vs −$3 · ×2.16 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.72 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

11d coverage
Net worth$10
Realized−$18
Unrealized−$3
Win rate (resolved)25%
Wins / losses9 / 27
Est. fees paid−$1
Open positions5
Markets (closed)36 / 41
History coverage11d
Avg bet$4
Trades / day4.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit22%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 5 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Colombia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 2¢ $3 $5 +$2 (+57%)
Will Japan win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-15%)
Will Croatia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-56%)
Will Mexico be the furthest advancing host nation at the World Cup? No 73¢ 60¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-18%)
Will Sweden win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 1¢ 0¢ $3 $1 −$2 (-75%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 25 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $26 +$20 +77%
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 Jun 27 $15 −$15 -98%
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? Jun 27 $5 +$1 +28%
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 Jun 27 $5 −$5 -98%
Will England win on 2026-06-27? Jun 27 $30 +$7 +22%
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? Jun 27 $15 −$15 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Jun 25 $4 −$4 -97%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 25 $3 −$2 -53%
Will England win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -99%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $0 $0 -97%
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? Jun 23 $5 −$5 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -97%
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? Jun 22 $2 −$2 -98%
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? Jun 21 $1 +$2 +157%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$4 +434%
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $1 +$1 +54%
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -97%
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? Jun 21 $1 −$1 -100%
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 +$5 +388%
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $1 +$1 +61%
Will Paraguay win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $1 −$1 -99%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-19? Jun 19 $0 $0 -100%
Scotland leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Korea Republic leading at halftime? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -76%
Will Senegal vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-26? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will France vs. Iraq end in a draw? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Paraguay win Group D in the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -97%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $1 −$1 -98%
Will Canada vs. Qatar end in a draw? Jun 18 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Portugal vs. DR Congo end in a draw? Jun 17 $1 +$11 +1115%
Will Iraq vs. Norway end in a draw? Jun 16 $1 −$1 -97%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 47¢ $46 1h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 13¢ $5 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? SELL Yes 81¢ $6 5h
Exact Score: Panama 0 - 2 England? BUY Yes 62¢ $5 5h
Panama vs. England: England O/U 2.5 BUY Over 31¢ $10 5h
Panama vs. England: O/U 3.5 BUY Over 14¢ $5 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? SELL Yes 90¢ $37 6h
Exact Score: Panama 1 - 1 England? BUY Yes 8¢ $15 6h
Will England win on 2026-06-27? BUY Yes 73¢ $30 6h
Will Iran advance to the knockout stages at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 26¢ $26 10h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $4 2d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL Yes 0¢ $1 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 58¢ $5 4d
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 7¢ $0 4d
Exact Score: England 1 - 1 Ghana? BUY Yes 8¢ $5 4d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 2 - 2 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Cabo Verde 1 - 1 Saudi Arabia? BUY Yes 14¢ $2 6d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? SELL Yes 23¢ $3 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 10¢ $5 6d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Uruguay 3 - 2 Cabo Verde? BUY Yes 8¢ $1 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? SELL Yes 88¢ $2 6d
Will Uruguay win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 6d
Exact Score: Ecuador 0 - 2 Curaçao? BUY Yes 1¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Ecuador 2 - 1 Curaçao? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? SELL Yes 100¢ $6 7d
Exact Score: Germany 2 - 1 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 20¢ $1 7d
Exact Score: Germany 1 - 2 Côte d'Ivoire? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? SELL Yes 32¢ $2 7d
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 19¢ $1 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $10.14 · official $10.13 (match) · 55 history records