trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?
| timeframe | markets | gross ROI | NET ROI | gross WR | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ≤7d | 1 | +2.5% | -7.3% | 100% | 0% | -7.3% |
| ≤30d | 3 | +45.3% | +31.5% | 100% | 33% | +55.3% |
| ≤90d | 8 | +14.2% | +3.4% | 88% | 38% | +40.6% |
| all | 19 | -9.9% | -18.5% | 68% | 26% | +31.9% |
| copier slippage | NET ROI | NET WR | net PnL (wtd) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 5% ideal ← realistic here | -18.5% | 26% | +31.9% |
| 10% | -26.3% | 16% | +19.3% |
| 15% | -33.4% | 16% | +7.8% |
| 20% | -39.9% | 16% | -2.8% |
| Market | outcome | entry | now | invested | value | unrealized PnL |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Will Likud win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | No | 63¢ | 60¢ | $604 | $580 | −$24 (-4%) |
| Will Yashar win the most seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 26¢ | 34¢ | $201 | $263 | +$62 (+31%) |
| U.S. forces in Gaza before 2027? | No | 69¢ | 87¢ | $125 | $158 | +$32 (+26%) |
| Will Likud win 30-34 seats in the 2026 Israeli legislative election? | Yes | 16¢ | 12¢ | $48 | $38 | −$10 (-22%) |
| Will the St. Louis Cardinals win the 2026 World Series? | Yes | 0¢ | 1¢ | $5 | $14 | +$8 (+170%) |
| Market | when | invested | PnL | ROI |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? | Jun 22 | $303 | +$7 | +2% |
| Will Gadi Eizenkot be the next Prime Minister of Israel? | Jun 15 | $635 | +$837 | +132% |
| Israel withdraws from Lebanon by May 31, 2026? | May 31 | $246 | +$4 | +2% |
| Israeli forces cross the Litani River by June 30? | May 12 | $415 | +$215 | +52% |
| Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31? | Apr 07 | $19 | −$19 | -100% |
| Netanyahu out by end of 2026? | Mar 31 | $110 | +$4 | +4% |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 27, 2026? | Mar 27 | $156 | +$13 | +9% |
| Will Israel take military action in Lebanon on March 24, 2026? | Mar 25 | $44 | +$6 | +14% |
| Spread: Patriots (-5.5) | Mar 23 | $12 | −$12 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by January 31? | Mar 23 | $3 | −$3 | -100% |
| Israel strikes Iran by January 31, 2026? | Mar 23 | $4 | −$4 | -100% |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in January 2026? | Mar 23 | $5 | −$5 | -100% |
| Will Israel launch a major ground offensive in Lebanon by March 31? | Mar 23 | $264 | +$35 | +13% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 4, 2026? | Mar 03 | $190 | +$9 | +5% |
| Will US or Israel strike Iran on March 3, 2026? | Mar 03 | $190 | +$9 | +5% |
| Will Israel strike 2 countries in 2026? | Mar 01 | $10 | +$1 | +10% |
| US strikes Iran by February 26, 2026? | Feb 24 | $190 | −$140 | -74% |
| US strikes Iran by February 24, 2026? | Feb 19 | $350 | +$483 | +138% |
| Bitcoin Up or Down - February 18, 6:05AM-6:10AM ET | Feb 18 | $1 | $0 | +1% |