Wallet analysis

2026-06-12T22:33:06+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1D
0x1d4d…45b6
politics · 126 markets active 1h ago
0.0score
−$72 -0%
TOTAL PnL · realized −$72 · open +$0
avoidriskycopy
✗ TRAP
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Net worth$41
Realized−$72
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)16%
Wins / losses20 / 105
Est. fees paid−$3
Open positions1
Markets (closed)125 / 126
History coverage95d
Avg bet$142
Trades / day4.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit75%
Chart Positions 1 History 125 Categories Trades Net edge Slippage
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$2
7 days−$5
14 days−$18
30 days−$40
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? No 93¢ 93¢ $41 $41 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $46 $0 +1%
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Jun 12 $69 $0 -0%
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in Jun 12 $21 $0 +0%
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 12 $38 −$1 -2%
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 11 $108 $0 -0%
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $193 −$1 -0%
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? Jun 11 $114 $0 -0%
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? Jun 10 $84 $0 -0%
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? Jun 10 $270 $0 +0%
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? Jun 10 $35 $0 -0%
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 10 $61 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $63 −$1 -1%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 09 $53 $0 -0%
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? Jun 07 $47 −$1 -1%
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Jun 07 $68 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $3.6T? Jun 06 $16 $0 +0%
Will Erling Haaland be the top goalscorer at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $53 −$1 -1%
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.4T? Jun 05 $41 $0 -1%
Will Bitcoin reach $82,500 in June? Jun 05 $42 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on June Jun 04 $53 −$1 -3%
Will Ed Miliband be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in 2 Jun 04 $107 −$4 -4%
Will Steve Hilton win the California Governor Election in 2026? Jun 03 $152 $0 +0%
Will Elise Stefanik announce a presidential run before 2027? Jun 03 $19 −$1 -5%
Will Bitcoin dip to $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 03 $81 $0 -0%
Will Jon Ossoff win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Jun 02 $160 −$1 -1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 02 $49 $0 -0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 01 $438 −$1 -0%
Will the Philadelphia Eagles win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $61 $0 -0%
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 31 $63 $0 -1%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 31 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Tucker Carlson win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? May 31 $415 −$1 -0%
Will Bruno Retailleau win the 2027 French presidential election? May 30 $114 $0 -0%
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the June 2026 meet May 30 $45 $0 -0%
Will Max Verstappen be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 30 $53 $0 -0%
Will Felix Auger Aliassime win the 2026 Men's French Open? May 29 $20 $0 -1%
Will Rahm Emanuel win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 29 $61 $0 -0%
Will Lando Norris be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 28 $304 −$1 -0%
Will David Lisnard win the 2027 French presidential election? May 28 $43 $0 -0%
Will Romeu Zema win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 28 $45 $0 -0%
Will the Atlanta Braves win the 2026 World Series? May 27 $60 $0 -0%
Will Bitcoin dip to $65,000 in May? May 23 $51 $0 -1%
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election? May 23 $39 −$1 -2%
Will Mark Kelly win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? May 22 $432 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $85,000 in May? May 22 $61 −$1 -2%
Will Michelle Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? May 22 $53 $0 -0%
Will the Baltimore Orioles win the 2026 World Series? May 21 $52 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win the 2027 NFL league championship? May 21 $69 $0 -0%
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 US Presidential Election? May 21 $58 $0 -0%
Will Denver Nuggets win the 2027 NBA Finals? May 21 $44 −$2 -6%
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 in May? May 20 $43 −$2 -4%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
other 29% −$19
politics 26% −$25
sports 18% −$10
crypto 15% −$9
economics 4% $0
culture 3% −$1
world 2% −$5
finance 2% −$1
tech 1% −$3
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Bitcoin dip to $52,500 in June? BUY No 93¢ $42 45m
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $46 1h
Will Camilo Santana win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 97¢ $46 9h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? SELL No 98¢ $57 10h
Will Fernando Haddad win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? BUY No 98¢ $57 15h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in SELL No 98¢ $21 15h
Will Wes Streeting be the next Prime Minister of the United Kingdom in BUY No 97¢ $21 20h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 92¢ $38 20h
Will Yulia Navalnaya win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 93¢ $38 26h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $56 27h
Will Donald Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $56 31h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $54 31h
Will the Toronto Blue Jays win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $54 38h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 93¢ $54 38h
Will the Seattle Mariners win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 93¢ $54 46h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? SELL No 96¢ $45 47h
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $12 2d
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026? BUY No 96¢ $34 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? SELL No 98¢ $64 2d
Will Narendra Modi win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026? BUY No 98¢ $64 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? SELL No 98¢ $35 2d
Will the San Diego Padres win the 2026 World Series? BUY No 98¢ $35 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 97¢ $61 2d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $42 3d
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 97¢ $19 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 96¢ $62 3d
Will Bitcoin reach $160,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $63 3d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 98¢ $53 3d
Will Thomas Massie win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 98¢ $53 5d
Will EDward Gaming win Valorant Masters London 2026? SELL No 93¢ $46 5d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 17 -0.5% -9.9% 24% 0% -9.8%
≤30d 64 -1.1% -10.5% 11% 0% -10.1%
≤90d 122 -0.7% -10.2% 16% 0% -9.9%
all 125 -0.7% -10.2% 16% 0% -9.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.
turnover4.5 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.2% 0% -9.9%
10% -18.8% 0% -18.5%
15% -26.6% 0% -26.4%
20% -33.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $41.42 · official $41.42 (match) · 458 history records