Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T15:59:56+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4b…50c5 weather 2575 markets active 0h ago coverage 4d ⚠
BOTnot copyable Fresh edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 3d onlyP/L from Polymarket (history capped)
✗ bot/MM pace (810 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ on-chain reconstruction ≠ official P&L (longshot/capped history)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$2,728 (-46%) realized −$2,784 · open +$56
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +43% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +10% what you keep after slip
Net edge+10%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate78%309W / 88L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day810.5pace
Fees−$9est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$404now

Equity curve

realized PnL
Not enough resolved history to chart — analysis covers only 4d (hyperactive wallet — we see only the tail of its trades). A “Total PnL” curve will appear once daily tracking accumulates.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 93% −$89
other 5% +$56
weather 1% +$17
crypto 0% +$4
politics 0% +$1
tech 0% +$1
world 0% +$4
culture 0% $0
finance 0% $0
economics 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (810 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)+29.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 397 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 24% -10.7%
≤30d 397 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 24% -10.7%
≤90d 397 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 24% -10.7%
all 397 +43.4% +29.7% 78% 24% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover810.5 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +29.7% 24% -10.7%
10% ← realistic here +17.3% 20% -19.2%
15% +6.0% 17% -27.0%
20% -4.4% 15% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 3% · top 2 6% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
69% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +43% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +27% → late +60% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$3 · ×0.21 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.74 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

4d coverage
Net worth$404
Realized−$2,784
Unrealized+$56
Win rate (resolved)78%
Wins / losses309 / 88
Est. fees paid−$9
Open positions500
Markets (closed)397 / 2575
History coverage4d ⚠
Avg bet$2
Trades / day810.5
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 500 History 397 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
ITF Rome: Ena Koike vs Capucine Jauffret Ena Koike 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti Lina Gjorcheska 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme Mariam Bolkvadze 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Elizabeth Ionescu Ariana Arseneault 98¢ 100¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+2%)
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson Maria Timofeeva 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova Tatjana Maria 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Rome: Ava Hrastar vs Amelia Honer Amelia Honer 99¢ 100¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+1%)
ITF Gdansk: Raluca Georgiana Serban vs Gina Feistel Gina Feistel 99¢ 99¢ $30 $30 +$0 (+0%)
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys Ugo Humbert 98¢ 98¢ $30 $30 −$0 (-0%)
Dota 2: Team Spirit vs Nigma Galaxy (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs Team Spirit 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick World Championship South American Series #1 Group A largadosypelados 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Counter-Strike: Esport Academy Copenhagen vs Betclic Apogee Esports (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B Betclic Apogee Esports 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Overwatch: ELMT vs Najdorf (BO3) - OCS Pacific Stage 2 Group Stage Najdorf 98¢ 100¢ $10 $10 +$0 (+2%)
Will the highest temperature in Lucknow be 39°C on June 25? Yes 1¢ 100¢ $0 $5 +$5 (+16558%)
Will Solana reach $130 June 22-28? Yes 2¢ 43¢ $0 $4 +$4 (+2067%)
Will there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from June 22 - 28? Yes 1¢ 50¢ $0 $3 +$2 (+4900%)
Will Enzo Fernandez join Paris Saint-Germain? Yes 1¢ 49¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+5322%)
Will Myles Garrett be on the cover of Madden NFL 27? Yes 1¢ 48¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+7850%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Arsenal? Yes 1¢ 47¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4595%)
Will Cloud9 New York finish in the top 4 of the CDL Regular Season? Yes 1¢ 46¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4510%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Golden State Warriors in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+22025%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Boston Celtics in 2026-27? Yes 0¢ 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+43998%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the Sacramento Kings in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 44¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+7158%)
Will Eduardo Camavinga join Bayern Munich? Yes 3¢ 43¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+1348%)
Will Austin Reaves play for the New Orleans Pelicans in 2026-27? Yes 1¢ 42¢ $0 $2 +$2 (+4528%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
ITF Rzeszow: Alan Wazny vs Oliwier Sterniczuk Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Zagreb: Sebastian Sorger vs Matic Dimic Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Dane Sweeny vs Tomas Barrios Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Porto: Goncalo Marques vs Francisco Rocha Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Max Basing vs Remy Bertola Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Honor of Kings: LGD NBW vs eStar Pro (BO5) - King Pro League Stage 1 G Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Gdansk: Chloe Paquet vs Britt Du Pree Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Will the highest temperature in Busan be 28°C on June 25? Jun 25 $0 +$5 +11011%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. LG Twins Jun 25 $10 $0 +3%
Set 2 Winner: Navarro vs Ruse Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Tanger: Massimo Giunta vs Ali Missoum Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Pablo Llamas Ruiz vs Tristan Boyer Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jack Draper vs Gabriel Diallo Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Porto: Matisse Bobichon vs Fabrizio Andaloro Jun 25 $5 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Polina Iatcenko Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Polina Kudermetova vs Alina Charaeva Jun 25 $30 $0 +2%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jan Choinski vs Zizou Bergs Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Targu Mures: Andrej Nedic vs Max Alcala Gurri Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Tarvisio: Alja Senica vs Katerina Tsygourova Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Colton Smith vs Michael Zheng Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
KBO: NC Dinos vs. Lotte Giants Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
KBO: Kia Tigers vs. Kiwoom Heroes Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Set 1 Winner: Draper vs Diallo Jun 25 $10 $0 +1%
ITF Taipei: Aishi Das vs Yuki Naito Jun 25 $30 −$30 -100%
Counter-Strike: Sashi Esport vs AM Gaming (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Mackenzie McDonald vs Christopher O'Conn Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Bad Homburg Open (Doubles): Klepac/Radisic vs Sutjiadi/Zvonareva Jun 25 $30 +$2 +7%
ITF Tanger: Matthieu Chambonniere vs Johan Nikles Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Valorant: Dplus vs X-CAST (BO3) - VCL Korea: Regular Season Jun 25 $10 $0 +2%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Gonzalez/Gonzalez vs Arribage/Olivet Jun 25 $18 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Luciano Darderi vs Nuno Borges Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Taipei: Thasaporn Naklo vs Dayeon Back Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
ITF Monastir: Alaa Trifi vs Alexander Frusina Jun 25 $30 +$2 +5%
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Clement Tabur vs Shintaro Mochizuki Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Tanger: Walid Ahouda vs Sean Cuenin Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
ITF Monastir: Mathys Picard vs Isaac Becroft Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships (Doubles): Pavlasek/Rikl vs Galloway/Kirkov Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Alkmaar: Amelie Van Impe vs Celia Anson Sanchez Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Set Handicap: Pridankina (-1.5) vs Liu (+1.5) Jun 25 $5 $0 +1%
ITF Monastir: Arina Arifullina vs Anna Donnell Jun 25 $30 $0 +2%
ITF Gdansk: Weronika Ewald vs Amelia Paszun Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Bad Homburg Open: Naomi Osaka vs Ekaterina Alexandrova Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Mallorca Championships: Ethan Quinn vs Vit Kopriva Jun 25 $30 +$1 +3%
ITF Galati: Sara Victoria Balan vs Alesia Breaz Jun 25 $30 $0 +1%
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Jelena Ostapenko vs Zeynep Sonmez Jun 25 $30 +$1 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Maria Timofeeva vs Heather Watson BUY Maria Timofeeva 99¢ $30 6m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Tatjana Maria vs Tereza Valentova BUY Tatjana Maria 99¢ $30 12m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Mariam Bolkvadze vs Jeline Vandromme BUY Mariam Bolkvadze 98¢ $30 13m
Lexus Eastbourne Open: Ugo Humbert vs Quentin Halys BUY Ugo Humbert 98¢ $30 14m
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Lina Gjorcheska vs Lucia Bronzetti BUY Lina Gjorcheska 98¢ $30 16m
Counter-Strike: largadosypelados vs MIBR Academy (BO3) - Thunderpick W BUY largadosypelados 98¢ $10 18m
Counter-Strike: Inner Circle Esports vs 9INE (BO3) - Super DraculaN Gr BUY 9INE 98¢ $10 18m
ITF Rome: Ariana Arseneault vs Elizabeth Ionescu BUY Ariana Arseneault 98¢ $30 29m
ITF Rome: Ava Hrastar vs Amelia Honer BUY Amelia Honer 99¢ $30 31m
ITF Rome: Ena Koike vs Capucine Jauffret BUY Ena Koike 98¢ $30 32m
ITF Rzeszow: Alan Wazny vs Oliwier Sterniczuk BUY Alan Wazny 99¢ $30 36m
Will Russia capture Mala Tokmachka by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 39m
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Vilius Gaubas vs Dusan Lajovic BUY Vilius Gaubas 98¢ $30 42m
Will Zelenskyy post 20-39 posts from June 19 to June 26, 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Glencore and Rio Tinto sale/merger announced by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Set 2 Winner: Navarro vs Ruse BUY Ruse 99¢ $5 1h
ITF Zagreb: Sebastian Sorger vs Matic Dimic BUY Sebastian Sorger 99¢ $30 1h
Bad Homburg Open: Emma Navarro vs Gabriela Ruse BUY Gabriela Ruse 98¢ $30 1h
Will Israel sign the US x Iran memorandum of understanding? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Databricks' valuation hit (HIGH) $225B by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will 100 to 129 tornadoes occur in the United States in June 2026? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Lamar Jackson traded by next season? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Alien arrests in New York hit 5000+ by June 30? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Will Gold (GC) settle over $5,000 on the final trading day of June 202 BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Mallorca Championships: Miomir Kecmanovic vs Fabian Marozsan BUY Fabian Marozsan 98¢ $30 1h
Set Handicap: Gjorcheska (-1.5) vs Bronzetti (+1.5) BUY Bronzetti 99¢ $10 1h
Will Serena Williams be the 2026 Women’s Wimbledon Winner? BUY Yes 1¢ $0 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Alejandro Moro Canas vs Soon-Woo Kwon BUY Soon-Woo Kwon 99¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification ATP: Jaime Faria vs Rei Sakamoto BUY Jaime Faria 98¢ $30 1h
Wimbledon, Qualification WTA: Ashlyn Krueger vs Polina Iatcenko BUY Ashlyn Krueger 98¢ $30 1h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
≈ Vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $404.13 · official $413.83 · 3500 history records