Wallet analysis

2026-06-22T03:32:38+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d4b…ccd1 sports 9 markets active 1h ago coverage 58d
RISKYcopy with care sports specialist⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$250 (-83%) realized −$248 · open −$2
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -100% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -100% what you keep after slip
Net edge-100%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate0%0W / 8L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$34per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$4est.
Kalshi-fit78%portable
Net worth$48now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$20
14 days−$30
30 days−$30
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 57% −$120
world 23% −$70
other 20% −$59
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-100.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤30d 3 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
≤90d 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
all 8 -100.0% -100.0% 0% 0% -100.0%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -100.0% 0% -100.0%
10% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
15% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
20% -100.0% 0% -100.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top —% · top 2 —% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -100% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
—% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -100% · $-wt -100% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
— vs −$31 no data
Profit factor
×0.0 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

58d coverage
Net worth$48
Realized−$248
Unrealized−$2
Win rate (resolved)0%
Wins / losses0 / 8
Est. fees paid−$4
Open positions1
Markets (closed)8 / 9
History coverage58d
Avg bet$34
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit78%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 8 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? Yes 15¢ 14¢ $50 $48 −$2 (-3%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 8 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? Jun 20 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? Jun 18 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? May 07 $51 −$50 -98%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 07 $20 −$20 -100%
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? Apr 25 $50 −$49 -98%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will England vs. Ghana end in a draw? BUY Yes 15¢ $51 1h
Will Türkiye vs. Paraguay end in a draw? BUY Yes 28¢ $10 2d
Will Mexico vs. Korea Republic end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $10 3d
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? BUY Yes 27¢ $10 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 54¢ $50 45d
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 Champions League? BUY Yes 43¢ $51 45d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 42¢ $20 45d
Will Liverpool FC vs. Crystal Palace FC end in a draw? BUY Yes 21¢ $50 57d
Will Arsenal FC win on 2026-04-25? BUY No 32¢ $50 57d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $48.33 · official $48.33 (match) · 9 history records