Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T05:06:27+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d49…7cc0 sports 370 markets active 1h ago coverage 48d ⚠
BOTnot copyable sports specialistFading edge⚠ High turnover⚠ Covers last 48d only
✗ bot/MM pace (55 trades/day) — uncopyable✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real
Total PnL +$12,309 (+5%) realized +$12,267 · open +$42
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR57%break-even
Win rate66%244W / 123L
Whale WR77%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$689per market
Trades / day54.9pace
Fees−$2,364est.
Kalshi-fit86%portable
Net worth$4,923now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$349
7 days+$3,855
14 days+$11,681
30 days+$4,311
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 87% +$9,267
other 12% +$2,320
crypto 1% +$521
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
uncopyable — bot pace (55 trades/day)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +57%
net ROI/market (all)+5.4%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 64 -11.5% -19.9% 64% 55% -5.9%
≤30d 197 -6.1% -15.1% 67% 63% -7.6%
≤90d 367 +16.5% +5.4% 66% 57% -5.1%
all 367 +16.5% +5.4% 66% 57% -5.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover54.9 tr/day
realistic slip~15%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal +5.4% 57% -5.1%
10% -4.7% 41% -14.2%
15% ← realistic here -13.9% 30% -22.5%
20% -22.3% 22% -30.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 8% · top 2 14% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +5% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +17% · $-wt +5% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 77% (≥$780) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +42% → late -9% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
5.2 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$262 vs −$422 · ×0.62 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.23 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

48d coverage
Net worth$4,923
Realized+$12,267
Unrealized+$42
Win rate (resolved)66%
Wins / losses244 / 123
Whale WR (big bets)77%
Est. fees paid−$2,364
Open positions3
Markets (closed)367 / 370
History coverage48d ⚠
Avg bet$689
Trades / day54.9
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit86%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 367 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 Under 88¢ 84¢ $2,640 $2,505 −$135 (-5%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 Under 62¢ 60¢ $1,860 $1,785 −$75 (-4%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Over 46¢ 76¢ $380 $633 +$252 (+66%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 42 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 Jun 21 $617 +$383 +62%
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? Jun 21 $740 −$740 -100%
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 Jun 21 $775 −$545 -70%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $824 +$176 +21%
Spread: Germany (-1.5) Jun 20 $627 +$373 +60%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $647 +$414 +64%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $765 +$235 +31%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 Jun 20 $647 +$449 +70%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $380 −$380 -100%
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) Jun 20 $864 −$860 -100%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: O/U 4.5 Jun 20 $790 +$210 +27%
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) Jun 20 $790 +$210 +27%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $2,850 +$150 +5%
Brazil vs. Haiti: O/U 6.5 Jun 20 $912 +$88 +10%
Spread: Brazil (-1.5) Jun 20 $660 +$340 +52%
Scotland vs. Morocco: Scotland O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $477 +$273 +57%
Scotland vs. Morocco: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $775 +$225 +29%
Spread: United States (-1.5) Jun 19 $657 −$650 -99%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 1.5 Jun 19 $3,164 +$5,286 +167%
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 3.5 Jun 19 $19 +$2 +10%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 7.5 Jun 19 $4,273 +$817 +19%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 5.5 Jun 18 $2,131 −$2,122 -100%
Canada vs. Qatar: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $2,187 −$2,150 -98%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $691 −$690 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-18? Jun 18 $537 −$479 -89%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $508 −$500 -98%
Czechia vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 18 $577 +$215 +37%
Spread: Colombia (-1.5) Jun 18 $7,812 +$1,568 +20%
Will Ghana win on 2026-06-17? Jun 18 $2 +$3 +113%
Ghana vs. Panama: O/U 1.5 Jun 18 $3,366 +$3,384 +100%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $834 +$166 +20%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 5.5 Jun 17 $2,877 −$2,840 -99%
England vs. Croatia: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $1,469 −$1,450 -99%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $3,361 +$129 +4%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $3,827 +$673 +18%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $3,440 +$1,257 +36%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 4.5 Jun 17 $883 +$117 +13%
Austria vs. Jordan: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $407 +$53 +13%
Argentina vs. Algeria: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $5,070 +$727 +14%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $883 +$117 +13%
Spread: Norway (-2.5) Jun 16 $5,051 +$17 +0%
France vs. Senegal: O/U 2.5 Jun 16 $902 −$892 -99%
Spread: France (-1.5) Jun 16 $657 −$650 -99%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 16 $12 −$9 -70%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 5.5 Jun 16 $783 +$217 +28%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 4.5 Jun 16 $432 +$68 +16%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $417 −$415 -100%
Saudi Arabia vs. Uruguay: O/U 3.5 Jun 16 $883 +$117 +13%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $3,680 +$1,100 +30%
Spread: Belgium (-1.5) Jun 15 $3,185 +$1,815 +57%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $1,881 59m
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $1,766 1h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 88¢ $883 1h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $14 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $1 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 10¢ $81 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $0 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $223 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 SELL Over 23¢ $7 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $266 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $7 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $10 3h
Will Ecuador win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 64¢ $357 3h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Curaçao O/U 0.5 BUY Under 61¢ $617 4h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: Ecuador O/U 1.5 BUY Over 77¢ $775 5h
Tunisia vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 46¢ $380 6h
Spread: Germany (-1.5) BUY Côte dIvoire 62¢ $627 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 4.5 BUY Under 82¢ $824 9h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 61¢ $647 9h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $93 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $143 10h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 6.5 BUY Over 38¢ $143 10h
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-20? BUY Yes 76¢ $765 11h
Spread: Netherlands (-2.5) BUY Sweden 86¢ $864 12h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 59¢ $647 12h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $6 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $38 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $15 25h
Spread: Paraguay (-1.5) BUY Türkiye 79¢ $188 25h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $4,922.65 · official $4,922.65 (match) · 3500 history records