Wallet analysis

2026-06-17T16:35:52+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d46…9e6f world 36 markets active 6d ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$6 (-1%) realized −$6 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -10% what you keep after slip
Net edge-10%after slip
Net WR0%break-even
Win rate17%6W / 30L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$24per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Kalshi-fit83%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days−$4
14 days−$5
30 days−$5
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 34% −$5
politics 25% $0
other 17% $0
tech 13% $0
economics 7% −$1
sports 4% $0
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +0%
net ROI/market (all)-10.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 -4.7% -13.8% 0% 0% -13.6%
≤30d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -11.0%
≤90d 11 -1.3% -10.7% 9% 0% -11.0%
all 36 -1.1% -10.5% 17% 0% -10.1%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.5% 0% -10.1%
10% -19.1% 0% -18.7%
15% -26.9% 0% -26.6%
20% -34.1% 0% -33.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 56% · top 2 67% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
100% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -1% → late -1% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.4 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.09 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$6
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)17%
Wins / losses6 / 30
Open positions0
Markets (closed)36 / 36
History coverage276d
Avg bet$24
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit83%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 36 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 11 $40 −$4 -9%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $44 $0 +0%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia Jun 10 $16 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 09 $33 −$1 -3%
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? Jun 08 $30 $0 -1%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 07 $41 $0 +0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 07 $44 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 06 $22 $0 +1%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? Jun 06 $4 $0 +0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 05 $10 $0 +0%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? Jun 05 $1 $0 -3%
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Dec 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? Sep 23 $28 $0 +0%
Will ANO win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 22 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $27 $0 +0%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 22 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Tampa Bay Buccaneers win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 21 $25 $0 +0%
Will Johannes Kaiser win the Chilean presidential election? Sep 21 $1 $0 -7%
Will Alibaba have the top AI model on December 31? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ivanka Trump win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $1 $0 -6%
Will Apple be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decemb Sep 19 $56 $0 -0%
Lisa Cook out as Fed Governor by September 30? Sep 19 $29 −$1 -3%
Will xAI have the top AI model on September 30? Sep 19 $29 $0 -0%
Skye Valadez confirmed perp? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will JB Pritzker win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Falcons win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 17 $29 $0 +0%
Will Tulsi Gabbard win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 16 $30 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150K in September? Sep 16 $2 $0 -2%
Will Gretchen Whitmer win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Sep 15 $31 $0 +0%
Will Dwayne 'The Rock' Johnson win the 2028 US Presidential Election? Sep 15 $2 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $2 $0 -8%
Will the Arizona Cardinals win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 14 $31 $0 +0%
Will ODS win the most seats in the next Czech parliamentary election? Sep 13 $31 $0 +0%
Will Athletic Club win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 13 $1 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 La Liga? Sep 09 $31 $0 +0%
Will no Fed rate cuts happen in 2025? Sep 08 $32 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL Yes 3¢ $3 6d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY Yes 7¢ $7 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL No 90¢ $44 6d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY No 90¢ $44 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $6 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 55¢ $10 7d
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 55¢ $16 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL Yes 37¢ $32 7d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY Yes 38¢ $33 7d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $33 8d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $33 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $19 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? SELL No 96¢ $11 8d
Israel closes its airspace by June 9? BUY No 96¢ $30 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 69¢ $41 9d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 69¢ $41 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $29 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? SELL No 99¢ $16 10d
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? BUY No 99¢ $44 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL No 71¢ $23 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY No 70¢ $22 10d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? SELL No 30¢ $4 11d
US x Iran permanent peace deal by December 31, 2026? BUY No 30¢ $4 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 50¢ $10 11d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 50¢ $10 11d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? SELL Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 12d
Will Steve Bannon win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $2 178d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? SELL No 95¢ $28 267d
Will the Chicago Cubs win the 2025 World Series? BUY No 95¢ $28 267d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 111 history records