Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:11:43+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d45…beef other 38 markets active 1h ago coverage 276d
TRAPdo not copy Fading edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$2 (+0%) realized +$2 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -2% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -11% what you keep after slip
Net edge-11%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate30%11W / 26L
Drawdown98%max
Avg bet$27per market
Trades / day0.5pace
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$1now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$4
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days+$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 39% +$2
other 27% $0
politics 20% $0
economics 5% $0
sports 5% $0
finance 3% $0
culture 2% $0
crypto 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-11.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 +1.1% -8.5% 43% 0% -8.7%
≤30d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 0% -9.0%
≤90d 11 +0.7% -8.9% 27% 0% -9.0%
all 37 -1.9% -11.2% 30% 3% -9.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.5 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -11.2% 3% -9.3%
10% -19.7% 3% -18.0%
15% -27.5% 0% -25.9%
20% -34.6% 0% -33.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 62% · top 2 80% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
91% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -2% · $-wt +0% edge needs big-bet sizing — not flat-copyable
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +0% → late -4% edge faded
Add-ons / DCA
1.6 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$0 · ×1.51 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×1.85 per $1 lost it wins $1.85
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

276d coverage
Net worth$1
Realized+$2
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)30%
Wins / losses11 / 26
Open positions1
Markets (closed)37 / 38
History coverage276d
Avg bet$27
Trades / day0.5
Drawdown98%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 37 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election? Yes 58¢ 57¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $26 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? Jun 20 $38 $0 +0%
Cuban regime falls in 2026? Jun 19 $38 +$1 +2%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? Jun 19 $49 +$3 +7%
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 19 $93 −$1 -1%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 18 $71 $0 +0%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 15 $5 $0 +0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $33 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $36 $0 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 06 $68 $0 +0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 04 $1 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 360-379 tweets from October 3 to October 10, 2025? Oct 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Ron DeSantis win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Oct 10 $7 $0 +0%
Will the Atlanta Hawks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Oct 10 $21 $0 -0%
Will the Los Angeles Chargers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $1 $0 +23%
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2025? Oct 10 $22 $0 +0%
Will the Los Angeles Rams win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 10 $34 $0 -0%
Will Bruno Mars be the top Spotify artist for 2025? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump pardon Sam Bankman-Fried in 2025? Oct 10 $20 $0 +0%
Will Trump sell 2.5k-5k Gold Cards in 2025? Oct 09 $20 $0 -1%
Will the Pittsburgh Steelers win Super Bowl 2026? Oct 09 $21 $0 +0%
Will Eric Adams win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 08 $21 $0 +0%
Will Xi Jinping be TIME's Person of the Year for 2025? Oct 07 $1 $0 +0%
Will Zohran Mamdani win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Oct 07 $22 $0 +1%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,000 by December 31? Sep 26 $8 $0 -1%
Will Napoli win the 2025–26 Champions League? Sep 26 $26 $0 +0%
Will Trump announce Michelle Bowman as next Fed Chair in 2025? Sep 26 $27 $0 +0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 25 $27 $0 +0%
Will the 10-year Treasury yield hit 5.7% in 2025? Sep 25 $26 $0 +1%
Will Trump sell 25k-100k Gold Cards in 2025? Sep 24 $26 $0 +1%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist in 2025? Sep 23 $27 $0 -0%
Will Brian Kemp win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 21 $29 $0 +0%
Will Ana-Maria Ciceală be the next Mayor of Bucharest? Sep 19 $8 $0 +0%
Will Zelenskyy and Putin meet next in China? Sep 19 $24 $0 +0%
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Sep 19 $24 $0 -0%
Will the Minnesota Vikings win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Will the Dallas Cowboys win Super Bowl 2026? Sep 18 $30 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia SELL Yes 58¢ $34 1h
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia BUY Yes 58¢ $35 2h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $22 8h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $22 11h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $1 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? SELL No 84¢ $37 25h
Israel closes its airspace by July 31? BUY No 84¢ $38 27h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? SELL No 82¢ $39 30h
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 80¢ $38 33h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? SELL No 53¢ $17 40h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? BUY No 47¢ $16 44h
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 36¢ $26 2d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 37¢ $27 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $36 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? SELL Yes 53¢ $1 2d
US strike on Cuba by December 31? BUY Yes 53¢ $36 2d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL Yes 10¢ $4 3d
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY Yes 10¢ $4 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL Yes 6¢ $5 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $0 5d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY Yes 6¢ $2 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $5 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 73¢ $28 5d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 73¢ $33 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $32 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $1 7d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $33 7d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 64¢ $33 8d
Will Benjamin Netanyahu be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 65¢ $33 8d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1.15 · official $1.15 (match) · 134 history records