Wallet analysis

2026-06-28T22:44:53+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d43…cf5f other 83 markets active 1h ago coverage 225d
TRAPdo not copy ⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL −$719 (-1%) realized −$726 · open +$7
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -23% what you keep after slip
Net edge-23%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate76%58W / 18L
Whale WR82%big bets
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$1,060per market
Trades / day13.8pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit69%portable
Net worth$1,807now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days+$13
14 days−$10
30 days−$152
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 67% −$697
crypto 13% +$87
tech 6% −$8
finance 5% +$39
other 5% −$173
politics 2% +$33
sports 1% −$15
culture 0% $0
weather 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)-12.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 8 +1.8% -7.9% 100% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 25 -7.9% -16.7% 80% 4% -10.4%
≤90d 66 -4.6% -13.7% 76% 2% -10.4%
all 76 -3.5% -12.7% 76% 3% -10.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover13.8 tr/day
realistic slip~11%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -12.7% 3% -10.3%
10% ← realistic here -21.0% 3% -18.9%
15% -28.6% 1% -26.7%
20% -35.6% 1% -33.9%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 22% · top 2 35% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -3% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 82% (≥$500) strong on big bets
Persistence
early -2% → late -5% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
19.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$4 vs −$55 · ×0.08 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.26 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

225d coverage
Net worth$1,807
Realized−$726
Unrealized+$7
Win rate (resolved)76%
Wins / losses58 / 18
Whale WR (big bets)82%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions7
Markets (closed)76 / 83
History coverage225d
Avg bet$1,060
Trades / day13.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit69%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 7 History 76 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 97¢ $486 $487 +$1 (+0%)
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 95¢ $383 $381 −$2 (-1%)
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? No 97¢ 98¢ $299 $301 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 97¢ $211 $213 +$2 (+1%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? No 96¢ 96¢ $165 $165 −$0 (-0%)
Will Bitcoin dip to $15,000 by December 31, 2026? No 94¢ 96¢ $153 $156 +$3 (+2%)
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? No 93¢ 94¢ $102 $104 +$2 (+2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 2 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? Jun 28 $170 +$2 +1%
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 28 $97 +$1 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? Jun 26 $209 +$3 +1%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? Jun 26 $293 +$1 +0%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? Jun 26 $98 +$1 +1%
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 Jun 23 $47 +$3 +7%
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? Jun 23 $98 +$2 +2%
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? Jun 22 $89 $0 +0%
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 Jun 19 $25 −$19 -73%
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? Jun 15 $50 −$4 -9%
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 14 $101 +$55 +55%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $51 +$5 +10%
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 13 $49 $0 +1%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? Jun 13 $107 +$1 +1%
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? Jun 13 $50 −$50 -100%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $161 −$160 -100%
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 12 $935 +$5 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 15, 2026? Jun 12 $436 +$3 +1%
Will SpaceX IPO by June 30, 2026? Jun 12 $4,939 −$12 -0%
Bitcoin all time high by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $495 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin hit $150k by June 30, 2026? Jun 08 $2,727 +$2 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,000 by end of June? Jun 08 $294 +$1 +0%
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,500 by end of June? Jun 08 $231 +$1 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $190,000 by December 31, 2026? Jun 08 $172 +$2 +1%
Will the Iranian regime fall by May 31? Jun 01 $3,369 +$4 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $110,000 in May? May 25 $100 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 40-59 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $60 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 60-79 tweets from May 8 to May 15, 2026? May 11 $207 −$1 -0%
Will "Mortal Kombat II" Opening Weekend Box Office be between 30m and May 11 $30 $0 -0%
Will "Michael" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 32m and 35m? May 11 $80 $0 +0%
Will the US confirm that aliens exist by May 31? May 11 $196 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 160-179 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $862 +$1 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $154 $0 +0%
Will Los Angeles Lakers advance to the Conference Finals in the 2026 N May 11 $40 $0 -0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 13, 2026? May 11 $185 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 11, 2026? May 11 $297 $0 +0%
Will Victor Wembanyama win the 2025–2026 NBA MVP? May 11 $116 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $175 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026? May 11 $541 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by May 15? May 11 $346 $0 +0%
Epstein suicide note released by May 8? May 11 $243 −$28 -12%
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $90 $0 +0%
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arab May 11 $59 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 0-19 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $99 $0 -0%
Will Elon Musk post 20-39 tweets from May 12 to May 19, 2026? May 11 $80 $0 -0%
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 15, 2026? May 11 $308 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? May 11 $40 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 65-89 tweets from May 9 to May 11, 2026? May 11 $283 $0 +0%
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from May 5 to May 12, 2026? May 11 $217 $0 +0%
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 26°C on May 10? May 11 $10 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Ethereum reach $5,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $166 1h
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $55 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $75 1h
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 98¢ $98 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $96 2d
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 97¢ $97 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $60 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $59 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $52 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $79 2d
Will Bitcoin reach $140,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $288 2d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $50 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $40 2d
Norway vs. Senegal: O/U 0.5 BUY Over 93¢ $47 6d
Will Iraq win on 2026-06-22? BUY No 98¢ $98 6d
Will Crude Oil (CL) hit (LOW) $45 by end of June? SELL No 100¢ $10 6d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 SELL Over 14¢ $7 9d
United States vs. Australia: O/U 2.5 BUY Over 50¢ $25 9d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 62¢ $56 14d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 55¢ $51 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? SELL No 77¢ $46 15d
Will Ethereum reach $7,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $487 15d
Will Ethereum reach $10,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 98¢ $49 15d
Will Ethereum reach $7,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 97¢ $300 15d
Will Ethereum reach $6,500 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 96¢ $212 15d
Will Ethereum reach $5,000 by December 31, 2026? BUY No 93¢ $103 15d
Will Scotland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 15d
Will Gold (GC) hit (HIGH) $6,200 by end of June? SELL No 99¢ $49 15d
Will Australia win on 2026-06-14? BUY No 83¢ $50 15d
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-13? BUY No 83¢ $50 15d
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? BUY Yes 82¢ $161 15d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $134 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $12 16d
Will Bitcoin reach $130,000 by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $66 16d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,807.30 · official $1,807.30 (match) · 3161 history records