Wallet analysis

2026-06-18T05:40:07+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d42…9e84 world 24 markets active 1h ago coverage 484d
TRAPdo not copy world specialistFresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ profit from just two bets (not replicable)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! limited sample (<25 closed)! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$3 (-1%) realized −$3 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt -7% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -16% what you keep after slip
Net edge-16%after slip
Net WR4%break-even
Win rate54%13W / 11L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day0.1pace
Kalshi-fit79%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$1
7 days+$3
14 days+$3
30 days−$0
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 86% $0
other 11% −$2
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
politics 1% $0
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +4%
net ROI/market (all)-15.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 5 +2.0% -7.7% 40% 0% -8.4%
≤30d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.6%
≤90d 14 +1.2% -8.4% 36% 7% -9.6%
all 24 -6.6% -15.5% 54% 4% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.1 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -15.5% 4% -9.8%
10% -23.6% 0% -18.5%
15% -31.0% 0% -26.4%
20% -37.8% 0% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 47% · top 2 75% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
92% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -7% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -15% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.38 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.71 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

484d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized−$3
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)54%
Wins / losses13 / 11
Open positions0
Markets (closed)24 / 24
History coverage484d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day0.1
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit79%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 24 Trades
no open positions
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? Jun 18 $49 +$1 +3%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $27 +$2 +8%
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? Jun 14 $44 $0 -0%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 13 $80 −$1 -1%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 13 $40 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? Jun 11 $29 $0 +0%
Iran Nuke before 2027? Jun 10 $9 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $84 $0 +0%
Iran agrees to end enrichment of uranium by June 30? Jun 09 $4 $0 +11%
Iran leadership change by June 30? Jun 08 $44 $0 -0%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 07 $8 $0 +0%
Will the Iranian regime fall by June 30? Jun 06 $2 $0 +4%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? Jun 04 $46 −$4 -8%
US strike on Cuba by December 31? Jun 03 $40 $0 +0%
Will Andrew Cuomo win the 2025 NYC mayoral election? Dec 09 $1 $0 +3%
Will Walmart buy TikTok? Jun 26 $6 $0 +4%
Will Lee Jae-myung win less than 35% of the vote in the South Korea el Jun 04 $2 $0 +1%
Will Mario Grech be the next pope? May 09 $1 $0 +1%
Will the Houston Rockets win the 2025 NBA Finals? May 06 $1 $0 +1%
Will Trump pardon Bob Menendez in his first 100 days? May 06 $0 $0 -100%
Jumper airdrop in Q1 2025? Apr 02 $2 −$2 -92%
Will the New Jersey Devils win the 2025 Stanley Cup? Mar 20 $8 $0 +0%
Will Solana dip to $100 by February 28 2025? Mar 03 $8 $0 +1%
Will Alabama win the 2025 NCAA Tournament? Feb 27 $7 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL No 88¢ $48 1h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $46 3h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 12¢ $3 11h
Israel withdraws from Lebanon by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 11¢ $3 12h
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $2 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $7 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $10 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $12 3d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 20¢ $6 3d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? SELL No 94¢ $44 4d
US x Russia military clash by December 31, 2026? BUY No 94¢ $44 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $1 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 22¢ $8 4d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $9 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $5 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 96¢ $34 4d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 96¢ $39 4d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $37 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? SELL No 86¢ $3 5d
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 86¢ $40 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $11 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $16 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by SELL No 91¢ $13 5d
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by BUY No 92¢ $40 5d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $9 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? SELL No 82¢ $20 7d
Will Trump agree to unfreeze Iranian assets by June 30? BUY No 82¢ $29 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? SELL Yes 10¢ $9 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $2 7d
Iran Nuke before 2027? BUY Yes 10¢ $3 7d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 75 history records