Wallet analysis

2026-06-15T11:16:21+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.0
score
1D 0x1d41…5cdd other 80 markets active 1h ago coverage 590d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL +$356 (+1%) realized +$356 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +2% what you keep after slip
Net edge+2%after slip
Net WR19%break-even
Win rate29%23W / 55L
Whale WR0%big bets
Drawdown14%max
Avg bet$376per market
Trades / day0.4pace
Fees−$2est.
Kalshi-fit64%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$9
14 days+$8
30 days+$8
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
economics 48% −$14
other 27% −$18
politics 14% −$8
sports 6% +$395
culture 2% −$1
crypto 1% $0
tech 1% $0
world 1% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +19%
net ROI/market (all)+1.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +24.2% +12.3% 25% 25% -8.1%
≤30d 14 +6.8% -3.3% 14% 7% -9.2%
≤90d 62 +9.2% -1.2% 26% 19% -8.7%
all 78 +12.3% +1.6% 29% 19% -8.5%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.4 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.6% 19% -8.5%
10% -8.1% 19% -17.2%
15% -17.0% 18% -25.2%
20% -25.1% 17% -32.5%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 35% · top 2 50% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
35% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 0% (≥$500) big bets weaker
Persistence
early +22% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$22 vs −$3 · ×7.82 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×3.27 per $1 lost it wins $3.27
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

590d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$356
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)29%
Wins / losses23 / 55
Whale WR (big bets)0%
Est. fees paid−$2
Open positions2
Markets (closed)78 / 80
History coverage590d
Avg bet$376
Trades / day0.4
Drawdown14%
Kalshi-fit64%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 78 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Solana reach $150 in June? No 100¢ 100¢ $140 $140 −$0 (-0%)
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? No 99¢ 99¢ $68 $68 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 11 $55 $0 -0%
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 10 $421 $0 -0%
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? Jun 09 $73 $0 -0%
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians Jun 09 $10 +$9 +97%
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? Jun 08 $49 $0 -0%
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 04 $67 $0 -0%
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? Jun 03 $66 $0 -0%
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Jun 02 $418 −$1 -0%
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? Jun 02 $131 $0 +0%
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? May 31 $56 $0 -0%
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 30 $48 $0 -0%
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 24 $58 $0 -0%
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 23 $58 $0 -0%
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? May 18 $352 $0 -0%
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 11 $743 −$1 -0%
Will Scream 7 be the top grossing movie of 2026? May 08 $736 −$1 -0%
Will Audi be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion? May 07 $367 $0 -0%
Will Saudi Arabia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 06 $352 $0 -0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $76,000 on May 5? May 06 $158 $0 +0%
Will Egypt win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 03 $383 $0 -0%
Will Liam Lawson be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? May 02 $365 $0 -0%
Will Scotland win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 02 $725 −$1 -0%
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the June 2026 me May 01 $363 −$1 -0%
Will New Zealand win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? May 01 $380 $0 -0%
Will Bernie Sanders win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination? Apr 30 $373 −$1 -0%
Will Valtteri Bottas be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? Apr 26 $353 $0 -0%
Will Park Ju-min win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 25 $373 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $394 $0 -0%
Will Austria win Eurovision 2026? Apr 25 $356 $0 -0%
Will Kevin Hassett be confirmed as Fed Chair? Apr 25 $383 $0 -0%
Will South Korea win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $361 $0 -0%
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 24 $372 $0 -0%
Will Geraldo Alckmin win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Apr 23 $379 $0 -0%
Will Alibaba have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? Apr 23 $384 $0 -0%
Will Georgia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 23 $392 $0 -0%
Will Serbia win Eurovision 2026? Apr 22 $384 $0 -0%
Will Ahn Cheol-soo win the 2026 Seoul Mayoral Election Apr 18 $394 $0 -0%
Will Australia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 17 $388 $0 -0%
Will the Portland Trail Blazers win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 16 $756 −$1 -0%
Will the Orlando Magic win the 2026 NBA Finals? Apr 15 $361 $0 -0%
Will Austria win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 14 $375 $0 -0%
Will François Bayrou win the 2027 French presidential election? Apr 14 $356 $0 -0%
Will United Kingdom win Eurovision 2026? Apr 13 $367 $0 -0%
Will FC Barcelona win on 2026-04-08? Apr 09 $16 −$16 -100%
Sabres vs. Rangers Apr 09 $9 +$6 +72%
Trail Blazers vs. Spurs Apr 09 $14 +$8 +60%
Capitals vs. Maple Leafs Apr 09 $16 +$12 +72%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $14 +$7 +48%
76ers vs. Spurs Apr 07 $6 −$6 -100%
Knicks vs. Hawks Apr 07 $13 +$14 +105%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Olivier Faure win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $68 1h
Will Solana reach $150 in June? BUY No 100¢ $140 42h
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Arvid Lindblad be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 4d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $53 5d
Will Oliver Bearman be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $53 5d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $73 6d
Will 10 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $73 6d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? SELL No 99¢ $48 7d
Will Yaël Braun-Pivet win the 2027 French presidential election? BUY No 99¢ $49 7d
New York Yankees vs. Cleveland Guardians BUY New York Yankees 50¢ $10 7d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $66 10d
Will Nico Hülkenberg be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $67 11d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? SELL No 99¢ $66 12d
Will Erika Kirk win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination? BUY No 99¢ $66 12d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Isack Hadjar be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $55 13d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? SELL No 100¢ $55 15d
Will Rick Caruso win the California Governor Election in 2026? BUY No 100¢ $56 15d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $47 16d
Will Ghana win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $48 16d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? SELL No 100¢ $58 22d
Will Alexander Albon be the 2026 F1 Drivers' Champion? BUY No 100¢ $58 22d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $58 23d
Will Bosnia-Herzegovina win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $58 23d
Will Bitcoin reach $150,000 in May? BUY No 100¢ $131 23d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL No 100¢ $352 27d
Will Amir Ohana be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY No 100¢ $352 27d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? SELL No 100¢ $383 34d
Will Czechia win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY No 100¢ $383 34d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $207.86 · official $207.86 (match) · 300 history records