Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T12:47:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

3.5
score
1D 0x1d40…362b sports 33 markets active 1h ago coverage 193d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL +$114 (+1%) realized +$114 · open +$0
Gross ROI / mkt +12% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +1% what you keep after slip
Net edge+1%after slip
Net WR3%break-even
Win rate97%30W / 1L
Whale WR100%big bets
Drawdown39%max
Avg bet$421per market
Trades / day0.2pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit82%portable
Net worth$247now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$0
14 days+$0
30 days+$1
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 42% +$28
crypto 27% +$4
other 12% +$71
tech 11% +$2
culture 7% +$1
world 2% +$8
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +3%
net ROI/market (all)+1.2%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤30d 4 +0.1% -9.4% 100% 0% -9.4%
≤90d 13 +0.5% -9.1% 100% 0% -9.1%
all 31 +11.8% +1.2% 97% 3% -8.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +1.2% 3% -8.8%
10% -8.5% 3% -17.5%
15% -17.3% 3% -25.5%
20% -25.4% 3% -32.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 72% · top 2 78% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
97% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +12% · $-wt +1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR 100% (≥$945) strong on big bets
Persistence
early +24% → late +0% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$44 · ×0.12 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×3.56 per $1 lost it wins $3.56
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

193d coverage
Net worth$247
Realized+$114
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)97%
Wins / losses30 / 1
Whale WR (big bets)100%
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions2
Markets (closed)31 / 33
History coverage193d
Avg bet$421
Trades / day0.2
Drawdown39%
Kalshi-fit82%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 2 History 31 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 99¢ 100¢ $203 $203 +$0 (+0%)
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? No 100¢ 100¢ $44 $44 −$0 (-0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? Jun 19 $248 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6? Jun 07 $248 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in May? Jun 01 $28 $0 +0%
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in May? Jun 01 $220 $0 +0%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 20 $224 +$8 +4%
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? May 17 $237 $0 +0%
76ers vs. Celtics May 07 $237 $0 +0%
Celtics vs. 76ers Apr 27 $236 +$1 +1%
Raptors vs. Cavaliers Apr 21 $235 +$1 +0%
Hawks vs. Heat Apr 16 $235 $0 +0%
Raptors vs. Knicks Apr 12 $234 $0 +0%
Bulls vs. Wizards Apr 08 $233 +$1 +0%
Clippers vs. Bucks Mar 31 $233 $0 +0%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? Mar 26 $233 $0 +0%
Knicks vs. Jazz Mar 12 $1,084 +$1 +0%
Celtics vs. Cavaliers Mar 09 $1,073 +$11 +1%
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? Mar 07 $1,072 +$1 +0%
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 4? Mar 05 $1,071 +$1 +0%
Nuggets vs. Thunder Feb 28 $1,060 +$11 +1%
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? Feb 21 $1,059 +$1 +0%
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-14? Feb 19 $25 +$113 +456%
Bulls vs. Nets Feb 10 $945 +$1 +0%
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Aca Jan 27 $943 +$1 +0%
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? Jan 18 $44 −$44 -100%
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $155? Jan 17 $987 +$1 +0%
Aster all time high by December 31? Jan 02 $53 +$1 +2%
Will Ethereum hit $17,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $182 $0 +0%
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? Jan 02 $196 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $1,000,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $456 $0 +0%
Will Bitcoin reach $170,000 by December 31, 2025? Jan 02 $260 $0 +0%
Will NVIDIA be the largest company in the world by market cap on Decem Jan 01 $65 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $14 45m
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 99¢ $189 1h
Will OpenAI have the best AI model at the end of June 2026? BUY No 100¢ $44 2h
Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY Yes 100¢ $248 6d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $78,000 on June 6? BUY No 100¢ $248 20d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (LOW) $330 in May? BUY No 100¢ $28 31d
Will Microsoft Corporation (MSFT) hit (HIGH) $525 in May? BUY No 100¢ $220 31d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? SELL No 58¢ $232 35d
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? BUY No 56¢ $224 35d
Will Azerbaijan be the Jury Winner in the Eurovision 2026 Grand Final? BUY No 100¢ $237 45d
76ers vs. Celtics BUY 76ers 100¢ $237 57d
Celtics vs. 76ers BUY Celtics 99¢ $236 59d
Raptors vs. Cavaliers BUY Cavaliers 100¢ $235 65d
Hawks vs. Heat BUY Heat 100¢ $235 73d
Raptors vs. Knicks BUY Knicks 100¢ $234 75d
Bulls vs. Wizards BUY Bulls 100¢ $233 78d
Clippers vs. Bucks BUY Clippers 100¢ $233 87d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on March 25? BUY No 100¢ $233 94d
Knicks vs. Jazz BUY Knicks 100¢ $1,084 105d
Celtics vs. Cavaliers BUY Celtics 99¢ $1,073 108d
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on March 6? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,072 112d
Will the price of Solana be above $40 on March 4? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,071 115d
Nuggets vs. Thunder BUY Thunder 99¢ $1,060 117d
Will Opendoor (OPEN) finish week of February 16 above $1.50? BUY Yes 100¢ $1,059 126d
Will ACF Fiorentina win on 2026-02-14? BUY Yes 18¢ $25 131d
Bulls vs. Nets BUY Nets 100¢ $945 135d
Will Zootopia 2 be nominated for Best Animated Feature at the 98th Aca BUY Yes 100¢ $943 156d
Infinex FDV above $600M one day after launch? BUY Yes $44 158d
Will NVIDIA (NVDA) finish week of January 12 above $155? BUY Yes 100¢ $987 160d
Will Ethereum hit $10,000 by December 31? BUY No 100¢ $196 180d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $247.46 · official $247.46 (match) · 67 history records