Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T20:22:19+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

1.0
score
1D 0x1d3f…91ce crypto 1231 markets active 0h ago coverage 54d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialist⚠ High turnover
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage! high turnover
Total PnL +$1,252 (+2%) realized +$1,252 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +4% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -20% what you keep after slip
Net edge-20%after slip
Net WR24%break-even
Win rate85%1045W / 186L
Drawdown60%max
Avg bet$44per market
Trades / day34.7pace
Kalshi-fit100%portable
Net worth$0now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$31
7 days+$215
14 days+$347
30 days+$726
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 100% +$1,019
other 0% +$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +24%
net ROI/market (all)-6.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 96 +2.7% -7.1% 79% 39% -4.7%
≤30d 636 +2.0% -7.8% 87% 19% -7.5%
≤90d 1231 +3.8% -6.0% 85% 24% -7.8%
all 1231 +3.8% -6.0% 85% 24% -7.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover34.7 tr/day
realistic slip~13%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal -6.0% 24% -7.8%
10% ← realistic here -15.0% 16% -16.7%
15% -23.2% 11% -24.7%
20% -30.8% 9% -32.1%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +2% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
71% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +4% · $-wt +2% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +6% → late +2% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.5 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$5 vs −$21 · ×0.22 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×1.26 profit barely above losses
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

54d coverage
Net worth$0
Realized+$1,252
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses1045 / 186
Open positions0
Markets (closed)1231 / 1231
History coverage54d
Avg bet$44
Trades / day34.7
Drawdown60%
Kalshi-fit100%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 0 History 1231 Trades
no open positions (127 resolved losses — in realized PnL)
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET Jun 21 $62 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$12 +23%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$5 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET Jun 21 $66 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET Jun 21 $40 −$40 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET Jun 21 $58 −$57 -99%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 21 $30 +$21 +72%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET Jun 21 $11 −$11 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET Jun 21 $56 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET Jun 21 $32 +$32 +100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET Jun 21 $61 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:10PM-10:15PM ET Jun 21 $51 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 10:05PM-10:10PM ET Jun 21 $13 −$13 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $40 +$12 +30%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:55PM-10:00PM ET Jun 21 $48 +$11 +24%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 21 $45 −$45 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 8:40PM-8:45PM ET Jun 21 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:55PM-8:00PM ET Jun 21 $54 +$3 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 20 $57 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:15PM-7:20PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:55PM-5:00PM ET Jun 20 $62 +$2 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 20 $11 +$5 +47%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:05PM-4:10PM ET Jun 20 $26 +$35 +138%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 1:55PM-2:00PM ET Jun 20 $27 −$27 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:55PM-1:00PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$16 +31%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 9:05AM-9:10AM ET Jun 20 $9 −$9 -100%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:15AM-7:20AM ET Jun 20 $24 +$1 +4%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 7:00AM-7:05AM ET Jun 20 $39 +$1 +2%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 7:05AM-7:10AM ET Jun 20 $15 +$52 +354%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:50AM-6:55AM ET Jun 20 $44 +$6 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$19 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET Jun 20 $19 −$18 -96%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:35AM-4:40AM ET Jun 20 $56 +$7 +12%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 4:15AM-4:20AM ET Jun 20 $57 +$6 +10%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET Jun 20 $21 +$32 +150%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 20, 2:55AM-3:00AM ET Jun 20 $48 +$3 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 2:00AM-2:15AM ET Jun 20 $13 −$13 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 12:10AM-12:15AM ET Jun 20 $58 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $60 +$3 +5%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 19, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET Jun 20 $22 +$2 +7%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 10:25PM-10:30PM ET Jun 20 $46 −$46 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:45PM-9:50PM ET Jun 20 $53 +$4 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET Jun 20 $58 +$9 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET Jun 20 $63 +$3 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:45PM-7:50PM ET Jun 19 $50 +$9 +18%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 19 $59 +$4 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 19, 7:05PM-7:10PM ET Jun 19 $54 +$10 +18%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00PM-4:05PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $62 17m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-4:00PM ET BUY Down 80¢ $53 22m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $47 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:45PM-3:50PM ET BUY Up 94¢ $3 32m
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $36 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $3 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:15PM-3:20PM ET BUY Up 90¢ $19 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 2:50PM-2:55PM ET BUY Up 95¢ $66 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $6 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $4 11h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $13 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $6 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $11 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $9 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET BUY Down 72¢ $2 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 4:00AM-4:05AM ET BUY Down 91¢ $58 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $27 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:40AM-3:45AM ET BUY Up 58¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $0 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $1 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $3 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:35AM-3:40AM ET BUY Down 18¢ $7 12h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $0 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 3:05AM-3:10AM ET BUY Down 15¢ $11 13h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET BUY Up 95¢ $56 15h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 21, 12:05AM-12:10AM ET BUY Down 50¢ $32 16h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 20, 11:00PM-11:05PM ET BUY Up 97¢ $61 17h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $0.00 · official $0.00 (match) · 3179 history records