Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T02:03:04+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

4.5
score
1D 0x1d3f…66e5 sports 34 markets active 2h ago coverage 7d
COPY-WORTHYcopy this sports specialist⚠ Small sample
Total PnL +$25 (+3%) realized +$4 · open +$21
Gross ROI / mkt +40% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +22% what you keep after slip
Net edge+22%after slip
Net WR62%break-even
Win rate62%18W / 11L
Drawdown23%max
Avg bet$23per market
Trades / day6.3pace
Fees−$8est.
Kalshi-fit71%portable
Net worth$208now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$47
7 days+$172
14 days+$172
30 days+$172
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 59% +$104
other 41% +$88
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
worth copying (survives realistic slippage)
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +62%
net ROI/market (all)+26.7%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 29 +40.0% +26.7% 62% 62% +17.8%
≤30d 29 +40.0% +26.7% 62% 62% +17.8%
≤90d 29 +40.0% +26.7% 62% 62% +17.8%
all 29 +40.0% +26.7% 62% 62% +17.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover6.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to15%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +26.7% 62% +17.8%
10% +14.6% 62% +6.5%
15% +3.5% 62% -3.8%
20% -6.6% 55% -13.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 13% · top 2 24% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +30% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
0% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +40% · $-wt +30% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early +44% → late +36% edge persists early→late
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$19 vs −$15 · ×1.26 wins ≈ losses
Profit factor
×2.06 per $1 lost it wins $2.06
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

7d coverage
Net worth$208
Realized+$4
Unrealized+$21
Win rate (resolved)62%
Wins / losses18 / 11
Est. fees paid−$8
Open positions3
Markets (closed)29 / 34
History coverage7d
Avg bet$23
Trades / day6.3
Drawdown23%
Kalshi-fit71%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 29 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 13¢ 13¢ $100 $97 −$3 (-3%)
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 Under 65¢ 100¢ $44 $68 +$24 (+54%)
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 68¢ 68¢ $43 $43 −$0 (-1%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 7 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals Jun 20 $44 +$17 +38%
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $18 +$10 +60%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 20 $7 +$10 +139%
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half Jun 20 $9 −$9 -98%
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals AND Arda Güler: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$18 +73%
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score Jun 20 $19 −$19 -99%
Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals AND Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals Jun 20 $25 +$19 +75%
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals AND Almoez Ali: 1+ goals AND Mojmír Chytil: 1+ Jun 19 $56 +$45 +81%
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 Jun 18 $10 −$7 -72%
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $60 −$20 -34%
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? Jun 18 $5 −$5 -97%
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score Jun 18 $15 +$20 +134%
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both T Jun 18 $10 +$33 +326%
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score Jun 17 $15 −$7 -49%
Will England win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 +$15 +73%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $20 −$20 -99%
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $25 +$34 +134%
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 Jun 17 $13 +$8 +65%
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $23 +$23 +97%
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $15 −$15 -99%
Will France win on 2026-06-16? Jun 16 $5 +$2 +50%
IR Iran vs. New Zealand: Both Teams to Score Jun 16 $13 +$16 +124%
Will Belgium vs. Egypt end in a draw? Jun 15 $3 +$10 +307%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: O/U 3.5 Jun 15 $23 −$20 -87%
Belgium vs. Egypt: O/U 2.5 Jun 15 $20 −$20 -98%
Sweden vs. Tunisia: Both Teams to Score Jun 15 $22 +$22 +101%
Côte d'Ivoire vs. Ecuador: Both Teams to Score Jun 14 $20 −$20 -98%
Netherlands vs. Japan: O/U 2.5 Jun 14 $20 +$22 +112%
Germany vs. Curaçao: O/U 4.5 Jun 14 $9 +$11 +116%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Tunisia vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $44 1h
Ecuador vs. Curaçao: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 65¢ $44 1h
Germany vs. Côte d'Ivoire: O/U 3.5 BUY Under 62¢ $18 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL Yes 100¢ $18 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY Yes 41¢ $7 7h
Netherlands vs. Sweden: Both Teams to Score in First Half BUY Yes 24¢ $9 9h
Florian Wirtz: 1+ goals BUY No 72¢ $44 14h
Türkiye vs. Paraguay: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 53¢ $19 25h
Lucas Paquetá: 1+ goals AND Arda Güler: 1+ goals BUY 57¢ $25 25h
Bilal El Khannouss: 1+ goals AND Folarin Balogun: 1+ goals BUY 57¢ $25 36h
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 13¢ $103 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 SELL Over 13¢ $3 2d
Canada vs. Qatar: Qatar O/U 0.5 BUY Over 45¢ $10 2d
Mexico vs. Korea Republic: O/U 2.5 AND Will Canada win on 2026-06-18? BUY 19¢ $5 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 33¢ $40 2d
Switzerland vs. Bosnia and Herzegovina: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 48¢ $60 2d
Exact Score: Czechia 1 - 2 South Africa? BUY Yes $5 2d
Cédric Itten: 1+ goals AND Almoez Ali: 1+ goals AND Mojmír Chytil: 1+ BUY 55¢ $56 2d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 26¢ $8 3d
Uzbekistan vs. Colombia: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 42¢ $15 3d
Ghana vs. Panama: Both Teams to Score BUY Yes 49¢ $15 3d
England vs. Croatia: England O/U 1.5 AND Portugal vs. DR Congo: Both T BUY 23¢ $10 3d
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 76¢ $20 3d
Will England win on 2026-06-17? BUY Yes 57¢ $20 3d
Argentina vs. Algeria: Argentina O/U 1.5 BUY Over 60¢ $13 4d
Iraq vs. Norway: Both Teams to Score BUY No 60¢ $15 4d
Spread: Norway (-1.5) AND Will Argentina win on 2026-06-16? BUY 42¢ $25 4d
France vs. Senegal: Both Teams to Score SELL Yes 100¢ $46 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? SELL Yes 100¢ $7 4d
Will France win on 2026-06-16? BUY Yes 66¢ $5 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $208.05 · official $208.05 (match) · 60 history records