Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T04:45:41+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d3e…bc45 world 108 markets active 1h ago coverage 477d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ profits on perfect fills only — loses on real✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$35 (-0%) realized −$35 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +16% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +4% what you keep after slip
Net edge+4%after slip
Net WR6%break-even
Win rate42%45W / 62L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$98per market
Trades / day0.8pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit72%portable
Net worth$127now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$3
7 days−$10
14 days−$12
30 days−$11
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 46% −$24
other 27% +$1
sports 17% −$1
politics 5% −$15
finance 4% +$2
culture 0% $0
tech 0% $0
economics 0% +$2
crypto 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
trap: profits on perfect fill only, loses on real
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +6%
net ROI/market (all)+4.5%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 7 -0.1% -9.6% 71% 0% -10.5%
≤30d 31 +0.9% -8.8% 42% 6% -9.7%
≤90d 49 +35.6% +22.6% 35% 6% -9.9%
all 107 +15.5% +4.5% 42% 6% -9.8%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover0.8 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to5%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +4.5% 6% -9.8%
10% -5.5% 3% -18.5%
15% -14.7% 2% -26.3%
20% -23.0% 2% -33.6%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 11% · top 2 22% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -0% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
84% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +15% · $-wt -0% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -2% → late +32% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.8 add-ons/market adds to positions
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$2 · ×0.39 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.52 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

477d coverage
Net worth$127
Realized−$35
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)42%
Wins / losses45 / 62
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions1
Markets (closed)107 / 108
History coverage477d
Avg bet$98
Trades / day0.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit72%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 107 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Cuban regime falls in 2026? No 82¢ 82¢ $126 $126 +$0 (+0%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? Jun 20 $145 +$3 +2%
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? Jun 20 $260 $0 +0%
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 18 $3 $0 +2%
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 Jun 18 $121 +$3 +2%
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? Jun 18 $101 $0 +0%
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? Jun 15 $139 $0 +0%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $218 −$16 -8%
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 14 $14 +$3 +21%
Netanyahu out by June 30? Jun 13 $10 $0 -2%
Will the United Kingdom send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by Jun 12 $7 $0 +0%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by June 30? Jun 10 $135 −$2 -2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 10 $139 −$4 -3%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by December 31, 2026? Jun 09 $74 $0 +0%
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? Jun 09 $151 −$1 -0%
Israel and Indonesia normalize relations by June 30, 2026? Jun 07 $420 +$2 +0%
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026? Jun 07 $68 $0 -0%
Will Itamar Ben Gvir be the next Prime Minister of Israel? Jun 05 $153 $0 +0%
Will Alberta join the US? Jun 04 $158 −$1 -0%
Will Alireza Arafi be head of state in Iran end of 2026? Jun 04 $12 $0 +2%
Iran agrees to surrender enriched uranium stockpile by May 31, 2026? Jun 02 $431 +$2 +0%
Iran closes its airspace by May 31? May 30 $140 $0 -0%
Will Trump agree to Iranian transit fees in the Strait of Hormuz by Ma May 30 $417 $0 +0%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by July 31? May 29 $259 −$3 -1%
Israel closes its airspace by May 31? May 29 $5 $0 -8%
Ukraine agrees not to join NATO by June 30? May 28 $154 −$1 -0%
Iran closes its airspace by June 30? May 28 $56 $0 -1%
Iran leadership change by May 31? May 26 $149 −$2 -1%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 25 $219 +$2 +1%
Will United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parlia May 25 $66 $0 +0%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? May 24 $10 +$2 +18%
Iran leadership change by June 30? May 23 $108 +$3 +2%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra May 22 $57 −$2 -4%
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by May 31? May 21 $140 $0 -0%
US-Iran nuclear deal by June 30? May 20 $19 +$4 +22%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? May 19 $143 −$15 -10%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by May 31, 2026? May 17 $166 $0 -0%
Will Russia capture all of Donetsk Oblast by June 30, 2026? May 16 $165 $0 +0%
Will New People (NL) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamen May 15 $149 +$1 +1%
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by May 31? May 15 $149 $0 +0%
Putin out as President of Russia by June 30? May 14 $4 $0 +0%
Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30? May 14 $148 $0 -0%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 27 $162 $0 -0%
Will Rafael López Aliaga win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Apr 26 $41 +$4 +10%
Starmer out by April 30, 2026? Apr 26 $995 +$1 +0%
Will England win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 25 $964 $0 +0%
Will Atletico Madrid win the 2025–26 Champions League? Apr 24 $904 $0 -0%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Apr 24 $115 $0 +0%
Will the Carolina Panthers win the 2027 NFL league championship? Apr 23 $905 −$1 -0%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Apr 23 $260 −$17 -6%
Will Trump sell 101-1k Gold Cards in 2025? Dec 29 $12 $0 +0%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Cuban regime falls in 2026? BUY No 82¢ $126 1h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $70 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 26¢ $4 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $18 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $55 14h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $51 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $4 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? SELL Yes 27¢ $19 18h
Israel x Hezbollah permanent peace deal by July 31, 2026? BUY Yes 26¢ $72 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $136 20h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 88¢ $136 22h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $10 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? SELL No 89¢ $114 40h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $114 42h
Will Russia capture all of Stepnohirsk by September 30, 2026? BUY No 89¢ $10 42h
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? SELL Yes 5¢ $3 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will Avigdor Lieberman be the next Prime Minister of Israel? BUY Yes 5¢ $1 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 SELL No 81¢ $124 2d
Will 80 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by June 30, 2026 BUY No 79¢ $121 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? SELL No 91¢ $101 2d
China x Taiwan military clash before 2027? BUY No 91¢ $101 3d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $47 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL No 96¢ $86 5d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY No 97¢ $134 5d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra SELL No 19¢ $77 6d
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra BUY No 21¢ $85 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? SELL Yes 4¢ $6 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $4 6d
Will Russia capture all of Kupiansk by June 30? BUY Yes 3¢ $1 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $127.26 · official $126.28 (match) · 410 history records