Wallet analysis

2026-06-16T18:05:13+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d3c…7aa7 sports 46 markets active 1h ago coverage 40d
TRAPdo not copy
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died! concentrated profit (few bets)
Total PnL −$5 (-7%) realized −$4 · open −$1
Gross ROI / mkt -15% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -26% what you keep after slip
Net edge-26%after slip
Net WR31%break-even
Win rate58%21W / 15L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$2per market
Trades / day4.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit89%portable
Net worth$14now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$3
7 days−$3
14 days−$4
30 days−$3
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
sports 55% −$6
world 22% −$3
other 10% −$1
crypto 9% +$4
politics 4% −$1
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +31%
net ROI/market (all)-22.9%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 10 -20.4% -28.0% 60% 50% -24.3%
≤30d 19 -16.6% -24.5% 58% 37% -17.6%
≤90d 36 -14.8% -22.9% 58% 31% -18.3%
all 36 -14.8% -22.9% 58% 31% -18.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover4.6 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -22.9% 31% -18.3%
10% -30.3% 8% -26.1%
15% -37.0% 6% -33.3%
20% -43.2% 3% -39.8%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 40% · top 2 63% concentrated in a few bets
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -10% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
48% wins margin < slip thin win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -15% · $-wt -10% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -18% → late -12% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.0 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$0 vs −$1 · ×0.42 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.59 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

40d coverage
Net worth$14
Realized−$4
Unrealized−$1
Win rate (resolved)58%
Wins / losses21 / 15
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions10
Markets (closed)36 / 46
History coverage40d
Avg bet$2
Trades / day4.6
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit89%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 10 History 36 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Over 73¢ 72¢ $4 $4 −$0 (-1%)
Timothy Chalamet confirmed to be EsDeeKid by June 30? No 99¢ 100¢ $3 $3 +$0 (+1%)
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? No 77¢ 85¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+11%)
US strike on Colombia by December 31? No 79¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? No 80¢ 80¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? No 70¢ 68¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-4%)
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? No 77¢ 73¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? Yes 75¢ 71¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? Yes 56¢ 27¢ $1 $0 −$1 (-52%)
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? Yes 36¢ 18¢ $1 $0 −$0 (-51%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%).
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 +$2 +44%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? Jun 15 $1 $0 +15%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 15 $4 −$4 -100%
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half Jun 15 $6 $0 +5%
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +19%
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? Jun 14 $1 $0 +14%
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 Jun 14 $1 $0 +12%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? Jun 14 $1 $0 -13%
Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals? Jun 14 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump speak to Vladimir Putin in May? Jun 04 $1 −$1 -85%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by June 30, 2026? Jun 01 $2 +$3 +148%
US announces new Iran agreement/ceasefire extension by May 31? Jun 01 $1 −$1 -70%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 31, 2026? May 31 $1 $0 -33%
Tampa Bay Rays vs. Baltimore Orioles May 28 $2 $0 +1%
Houston Astros vs. Texas Rangers May 27 $2 $0 +3%
Will Trump say "250" or "250th" during events in Rockland County? May 27 $1 $0 +21%
KBO: Doosan Bears vs. Hanwha Eagles May 24 $2 $0 +4%
Will Arsenal win the 2025–26 English Premier League? May 20 $1 −$1 -100%
Will Trump say "Dumbocrat" during Bret Baier interview? May 16 $1 $0 +2%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? May 16 $3 +$1 +20%
Confirmed case of Hantavirus in US by May 15? May 16 $1 −$1 -99%
Ukraine signs peace deal with Russia before 2027? May 13 $1 $0 +24%
US x Iran diplomatic meeting by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -10%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by May 15, 2026? May 10 $1 $0 -3%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 10 $2 −$2 -100%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos May 09 $2 $0 +16%
KBO: SSG Landers vs. Doosan Bears May 09 $2 $0 +6%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by June 30, 2026? May 08 $1 −$1 -55%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by end of 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -27%
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by May 31, 2026? May 08 $1 $0 -27%
KBO: LG Twins vs. Hanwha Eagles May 08 $1 $0 +10%
KBO: Samsung Lions vs. NC Dinos May 08 $1 $0 +7%
Cincinnati Reds vs. Chicago Cubs May 07 $1 $0 +14%
Texas Rangers vs. New York Yankees May 07 $1 $0 +1%
KBO: Hanwha Eagles vs. Kia Tigers May 07 $1 $0 +2%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will the text of the US-Iran agreement be released by June 16? BUY Yes 56¢ $1 53m
US strike on Colombia by December 31? BUY No 79¢ $1 1h
Will Bitcoin reach $70,000 in June? BUY No 70¢ $1 1h
France vs. Senegal: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 73¢ $4 1h
Will Warsh say "Good Afternoon" during June Press Conference? BUY Yes 75¢ $1 3h
Pete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by December 31? BUY No 77¢ $1 4h
Belgium vs. Egypt: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 69¢ $4 23h
Israel x Iran permanent peace deal by June 30, 2026? BUY No 77¢ $1 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half SELL No 99¢ $6 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: Both Teams to Score in Second Half BUY No 94¢ $6 24h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 74¢ $2 25h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? SELL Yes 100¢ $0 26h
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 22, 2026? BUY Yes 87¢ $1 28h
Spain vs. Cabo Verde: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 85¢ $2 29h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 25¢ $0 44h
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 27¢ $0 44h
Netherlands vs. Japan: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 68¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 SELL Over 99¢ $1 2d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 84¢ $0 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 1.5 BUY Over 82¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 SELL Over 100¢ $1 2d
Germany vs. Curaçao: 1st Half O/U 0.5 BUY Over 89¢ $1 2d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? SELL Yes 28¢ $1 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 21¢ $0 2d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 23¢ $0 4d
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June? SELL Yes 16¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 83¢ $0 5d
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027? SELL No 80¢ $0 5d
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026? BUY Yes 32¢ $1 15d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $13.80 · official $13.84 (match) · 204 history records