Wallet analysis

2026-06-20T02:54:16+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d3b…9c2d other 21 markets active 1h ago coverage 112d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge⚠ Small sample
✗ profit hinges on one bet (luck, not edge)! limited sample (<25 closed)
Total PnL −$622 (-4%) realized −$28 · open −$594
Gross ROI / mkt +61% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +40% what you keep after slip
Net edge+40%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate35%7W / 13L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$816per market
Trades / day1.8pace
Fees−$12est.
Kalshi-fit62%portable
Net worth$1,340now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days−$10
7 days+$10
14 days−$116
30 days−$116
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
politics 82% −$347
other 15% −$298
sports 3% −$360
crypto 0% −$2
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
borderline — thin edge, slippage-sensitive
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)+45.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 4 +469.3% +415.1% 50% 50% -12.5%
≤30d 11 +150.9% +127.0% 45% 36% -10.4%
≤90d 20 +61.0% +45.6% 35% 30% -12.3%
all 20 +61.0% +45.6% 35% 30% -12.3%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover1.8 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +45.6% 30% -12.3%
10% +31.7% 20% -20.7%
15% +19.0% 20% -28.4%
20% +7.3% 20% -35.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 98% · top 2 99% profit hinges on 1 bet — luck, not edge
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -3% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
14% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +61% · $-wt -3% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -50% → late +172% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
5.3 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$598 vs −$354 · ×1.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×0.91 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $300 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

112d coverage
Net worth$1,340
Realized−$28
Unrealized−$594
Win rate (resolved)35%
Wins / losses7 / 13
Est. fees paid−$12
Open positions1
Markets (closed)20 / 21
History coverage112d
Avg bet$816
Trades / day1.8
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit62%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 1 History 20 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Flávio Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election? Yes 36¢ 25¢ $1,934 $1,340 −$594 (-31%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 3 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 Jun 20 $21 −$8 -36%
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 Jun 20 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? Jun 20 $201 +$27 +14%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $1,175 +$20 +2%
Will Canada win on 2026-06-12? Jun 12 $107 −$82 -76%
Will Korea Republic win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $649 +$21 +3%
Will Czechia win on 2026-06-11? Jun 12 $5 −$5 -98%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $100 +$16 +16%
Mexico vs. South Africa: O/U 2.5 Jun 11 $440 −$323 -73%
Will Keiko Fujimori win the 2026 Peruvian presidential election? Jun 11 $5,661 +$4,101 +72%
Will Roberto Sánchez Palomino win the 2026 Peruvian presidential elect Jun 11 $6,514 −$3,854 -59%
No change in the Selic rate after Bank of Brazil's March 2026 meeting? Mar 28 $105 −$105 -100%
Will the Bank of Brazil increase the Selic rate after March 2026 meeti Mar 28 $190 −$190 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:40PM-12:45PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:30PM-12:35PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:25PM-12:30PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:15PM-12:20PM ET Mar 28 $1 −$1 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:05PM-12:10PM ET Mar 28 $3 −$3 -100%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 12:00PM-12:05PM ET Mar 28 $4 +$2 +55%
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 11:55AM-12:00PM ET Mar 28 $1 +$2 +205%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 SELL Over 17¢ $13 52m
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $8 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Haiti O/U 0.5 BUY Over 26¢ $13 1h
Brazil vs. Haiti: Brazil O/U 3.5 BUY Over 59¢ $30 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $1 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $128 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? SELL Yes 99¢ $99 1h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-19? BUY Yes 87¢ $201 2h
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $96 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $25 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $15 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $9 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $5 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $29 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $20 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $4 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $163 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $50 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $1 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $50 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $2 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $100 6d
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? SELL Yes 59¢ $10 6d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $1,340.07 · official $1,340.07 (match) · 215 history records