Wallet analysis

2026-06-21T23:33:31+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

2.0
score
1D 0x1d3a…af38 world 13 markets active 4d ago coverage 22d
RISKYcopy with care ⚠ Small sample
✗ too few resolved markets (<12) to judge
Total PnL +$5,539 (+32%) realized +$6,615 · open −$1,076
Gross ROI / mkt +88% what the leader earns
−copy tax
Net edge / mkt +57% what you keep after slip
Net edge+57%after slip
Net WR56%break-even
Win rate67%6W / 3L
Drawdown3%max
Avg bet$1,351per market
Trades / day7.6pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit92%portable
Net worth$700now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days$0
7 days+$3,455
14 days+$4,107
30 days+$6,679
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
world 81% +$5,193
crypto 18% +$441
politics 0% −$26
other 0% −$5
sports 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
insufficient sample — too few resolved markets to judge
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +56%
net ROI/market (all)+69.8%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 2 +256.6% +222.7% 100% 100% +370.5%
≤30d 9 +87.7% +69.8% 67% 56% +28.9%
≤90d 9 +87.7% +69.8% 67% 56% +28.9%
all 9 +87.7% +69.8% 67% 56% +28.9%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover7.6 tr/day
realistic slip~9%
edge survives to20%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here +69.8% 56% +28.9%
10% +53.6% 56% +16.6%
15% +38.7% 44% +5.3%
20% +25.1% 33% -5.0%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 49% · top 2 71% thin sample
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI +42% fresh edge ✓
Fragile wins
17% wins margin < slip thin sample
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +88% · $-wt +42% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early —% → late —% no data
Add-ons / DCA
8.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$1,159 vs −$91 · ×12.69 wins bigger than losses
Profit factor
×25.37 per $1 lost it wins $25.37
Copy size
≥ $700 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

22d coverage
Net worth$700
Realized+$6,615
Unrealized−$1,076
Win rate (resolved)67%
Wins / losses6 / 3
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions4
Markets (closed)9 / 13
History coverage22d
Avg bet$1,351
Trades / day7.6
Drawdown3%
Kalshi-fit92%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 4 History 9 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Ethereum dip to $1,400 in June? Yes 16¢ $1,684 $639 −$1,045 (-62%)
Will Trump speak to Elon Musk in June? Yes 29¢ 19¢ $77 $51 −$26 (-34%)
GTA 6 launch postponed again? Yes 23¢ 14¢ $12 $7 −$5 (-41%)
Floyd Mayweather vs. Manny Pacquiao 2 Mayweather 63¢ 62¢ $3 $3 −$0 (-2%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 1 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? Jun 17 $728 +$3,412 +469%
US and Iran sign an agreement by June 15, 2026? Jun 15 $94 +$42 +45%
Will Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Stra Jun 14 $1,770 −$224 -13%
Will Bitcoin dip to $59,000 on June 10? Jun 10 $78 −$4 -5%
US x Iran permanent peace deal by June 15, 2026? Jun 10 $10,933 +$880 +8%
Israel announces Lebanon ceasefire extension by June 7? Jun 03 $312 +$92 +30%
MicroStrategy sells any Bitcoin by May 31, 2026? Jun 01 $1,341 +$1,536 +115%
Will Ethereum dip to $1,850 on June 1? Jun 01 $49 −$46 -94%
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by June 15? May 31 $411 +$990 +241%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $232 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $11 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $287 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL No 27¢ $9 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $44 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $11 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $2 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $0 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $0 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $4 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $2 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No $4 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? BUY No 13¢ $127 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $455 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $229 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $10 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 65¢ $265 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $89 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $481 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $9 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $125 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $6 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $307 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $180 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 61¢ $346 4d
Will Iran close its airspace by June 30? SELL Yes 60¢ $3 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $699.54 · official $699.54 (match) · 181 history records