Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T21:55:36+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

0.0
score
1D 0x1d38…3bd9 other 88 markets active 0h ago coverage 165d
TRAPdo not copy Fresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ 90-day edge negative — edge has died
Total PnL −$1,042 (-14%) realized −$982 · open −$60
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt +1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -9% what you keep after slip
Net edge-9%after slip
Net WR36%break-even
Win rate48%37W / 40L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$83per market
Trades / day2.2pace
Fees−$7est.
Kalshi-fit55%portable
Net worth$163now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$28
7 days+$35
14 days−$303
30 days−$302
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
other 42% −$475
politics 33% −$755
sports 20% +$231
economics 2% −$131
world 2% +$133
crypto 2% −$110
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +36%
net ROI/market (all)-9.0%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 14 -15.1% -23.2% 50% 36% -5.4%
≤30d 36 +42.0% +28.5% 53% 42% -21.6%
≤90d 36 +42.0% +28.5% 53% 42% -21.6%
all 77 +0.6% -9.0% 48% 36% -23.2%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover2.2 tr/day
realistic slip~5%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -9.0% 36% -23.2%
10% -17.7% 30% -30.5%
15% -25.6% 17% -37.3%
20% -32.9% 10% -43.4%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 10% · top 2 19% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -13% edge died — 90d negative
Fragile wins
24% wins margin < slip solid win margins
Flat-copyable
equal-wt +1% · $-wt -15% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -43% → late +43% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
3.5 add-ons/market averages down — deposit killer
Win / loss size
+$34 vs −$58 · ×0.59 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.55 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

165d coverage
Net worth$163
Realized−$982
Unrealized−$60
Win rate (resolved)48%
Wins / losses37 / 40
Est. fees paid−$7
Open positions11
Markets (closed)77 / 88
History coverage165d
Avg bet$83
Trades / day2.2
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit55%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 11 History 77 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 8¢ 6¢ $50 $34 −$16 (-33%)
Will Kai Havertz score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 56¢ 57¢ $30 $31 +$1 (+3%)
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 18¢ 53¢ $10 $28 +$19 (+198%)
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? Yes 27¢ 24¢ $20 $18 −$2 (-9%)
Will Mexico win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 2¢ 1¢ $20 $17 −$3 (-17%)
Will Norway win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 3¢ 3¢ $10 $12 +$2 (+20%)
Will Rúben Dias score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 27¢ 20¢ $15 $11 −$4 (-27%)
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 4¢ 4¢ $5 $5 +$0 (+5%)
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? Yes 19¢ 12¢ $5 $3 −$2 (-39%)
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? Yes 10¢ 0¢ $56 $2 −$54 (-96%)
Will Désiré Doué score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Yes 72¢ 56¢ $3 $2 −$1 (-22%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 20 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $30 +$28 +92%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $111 +$20 +18%
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $141 +$70 +50%
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? Jun 23 $7 −$7 -97%
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? Jun 23 $2 −$2 -97%
Will Erling Haaland score 3+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 23 $100 +$7 +7%
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? Jun 21 $31 −$22 -71%
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $12 −$12 -98%
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $10 −$10 -97%
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? Jun 21 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Germany win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $51 +$81 +158%
Will Côte d'Ivoire win on 2026-06-20? Jun 20 $40 +$25 +62%
Will Portugal win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $103 −$34 -34%
Will Erling Haaland score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 20 $16 +$1 +7%
Will Portugal win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $5 −$5 -97%
Will DR Congo win on 2026-06-17? Jun 17 $15 +$15 +98%
Portugal vs. DR Congo: O/U 2.5 Jun 17 $30 −$30 -99%
Will Germany win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $41 −$1 -2%
Will Bruno Fernandes score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 17 $10 +$1 +6%
Will Norway win on 2026-06-16? Jun 17 $60 +$21 +34%
Iraq vs. Norway: O/U 3.5 Jun 17 $50 +$8 +16%
France vs. Senegal: Senegal O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $142 +$111 +78%
France vs. Senegal: France O/U 0.5 Jun 16 $4 +$1 +29%
France to score first vs. Senegal? Jun 16 $90 +$8 +8%
Will Egypt win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $10 −$10 -98%
Will Spain win on 2026-06-15? Jun 15 $451 −$450 -100%
Will Japan win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $5 −$5 -97%
Will Netherlands win on 2026-06-14? Jun 14 $111 −$110 -99%
Will Qatar vs. Switzerland end in a draw? Jun 13 $5 +$120 +2330%
Will Brazil win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $110 −$108 -98%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-13? Jun 13 $100 +$12 +12%
Will Mexico win on 2026-06-11? Jun 11 $172 +$73 +43%
Will Raúl Jiménez score a goal at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 11 $48 +$12 +24%
Will Turkiye win the 2026 FIFA World Cup? Jun 05 $31 −$30 -97%
Roland Garros ATP: Felix Auger-Aliassime vs Flavio Cobolli Jun 03 $41 −$40 -98%
Roland Garros ATP: Jakub Mensik vs Joao Fonseca Jun 03 $101 +$71 +70%
Trump-Denmark Greenland deal signed by March 31? Mar 01 $322 −$312 -97%
US strikes Iran by February 28, 2026? Feb 28 $47 +$123 +262%
US strikes Iran by February 20, 2026? Feb 28 $4 −$4 -100%
Will André Ventura win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 28 $345 +$7 +2%
Will Luís Marques Mendes win the 2026 Portugal presidential election? Feb 28 $43 −$43 -100%
Will João Cotrim Figueiredo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electio Feb 28 $610 +$50 +8%
Will Henrique Gouveia e Melo win the 2026 Portugal presidential electi Feb 28 $71 −$71 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 28 $143 −$143 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 28 $154 −$154 -100%
Will António José Seguro win the second round by 20–30%? Feb 28 $49 −$49 -100%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $49 +$11 +22%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $86 +$20 +24%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 08 $17 +$6 +34%
Will turnout in the second round of the 2026 Portuguese presidential e Feb 07 $89 +$10 +11%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 4m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 10m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 13m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 2¢ $1 13m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 19¢ $5 16m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 37¢ $51 30m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? SELL Yes 40¢ $39 31m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 62¢ $0 48m
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? SELL Yes 69¢ $89 48m
Will Ecuador vs. Germany end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 1h
Will Germany win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 46¢ $61 1h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? SELL Yes 88¢ $59 22h
Will Morocco win on 2026-06-24? BUY Yes 45¢ $30 23h
Will Türkiye win on 2026-06-25? BUY Yes 27¢ $20 29h
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 41h
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $2 44h
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 15¢ $1 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 4+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 18¢ $9 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 0¢ $1 2d
Will Portugal vs. Uzbekistan end in a draw? BUY Yes 1¢ $2 2d
Will João Neves win the Young Player Award at the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 4¢ $0 2d
Will Uzbekistan win on 2026-06-23? BUY Yes 1¢ $6 2d
Will Cristiano Ronaldo score 2+ goals during the 2026 FIFA World Cup? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 2d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? SELL Yes 9¢ $9 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 2¢ $2 3d
Will Cabo Verde win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 34¢ $10 3d
Will Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde end in a draw? BUY Yes 30¢ $31 3d
Will IR Iran win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 9¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 19¢ $10 4d
Will Belgium win on 2026-06-21? BUY Yes 64¢ $101 4d
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $163.03 · official $163.04 (match) · 429 history records