Wallet analysis

2026-06-25T01:22:45+00:00

trader profile + honest PnL by actual resolution and NET edge after slippage — worth copying?

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score
1D 0x1d36…736d crypto 1022 markets active 1h ago coverage 234d
TRAPdo not copy crypto specialistFresh edge
✗ negative after realistic slippage✗ wins on margins thinner than slippage
Total PnL −$27 (-0%) realized −$27 · open +$0
Copy trade Watchlist View on Polymarket ↗
Gross ROI / mkt -1% what the leader earns
→−copy tax
Net edge / mkt -14% what you keep after slip
Net edge-14%after slip
Net WR30%break-even
Win rate85%866W / 153L
Drawdown100%max
Avg bet$5per market
Trades / day5.3pace
Fees−$0est.
Kalshi-fit98%portable
Net worth$3now

Equity curve

realized PnL
1W 1M 3M YTD 1Y All
2 days+$40
7 days−$70
14 days−$68
30 days−$68
Cards show realized PnL over calendar windows (by resolution date). The “Total PnL” chart appears for wallets we track daily.

Categories

share · PnL
crypto 98% −$26
other 2% −$42
politics 0% +$1
sports 0% −$4
weather 0% $0
culture 0% $0
Share of volume and PnL by niche (realized + unrealized). Shows where the trader actually earns — and where they bleed.

The copy-tax — evidence

gross is the leader · net is you

Net edge · by timeframe

gross → net
negative after costs — do not copy
break-even: the trader needs > 10.5% gross ROI/market for the copier to break even
chance a trade nets +30%
net ROI/market (all)-10.6%
timeframemarkets gross ROINET ROI gross WRNET WR net PnL (wtd)
≤7d 1009 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -10.7%
≤30d 1014 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -10.6%
≤90d 1014 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -10.6%
all 1019 -1.2% -10.6% 85% 30% -10.7%
<b>gross</b> = as the leader traded. <b>net</b> = what WE’d keep after slippage (we enter later, price moved). Net ROI ≤ 0 → copying loses even if the leader profits.

Slippage survival

net ROI/WR at slip
turnover5.3 tr/day
realistic slip~7%
edge survives to0%
copier slippageNET ROINET WRnet PnL (wtd)
5% ideal ← realistic here -10.6% 30% -10.7%
10% -19.1% 14% -19.2%
15% -27.0% 6% -27.0%
20% -34.1% 3% -34.2%
Realistic slippage grows with turnover and leader size. If net ROI turns negative before the realistic slip — it’s a <b>trap</b>: leader profits, you lose.

Edge quality

honest signals — luck vs skill
Profit concentration
top 1% · top 2 2% broad-based profit
Edge freshness (90d)
90d ROI -1% 90d near zero / fading
Fragile wins
62% wins margin < slip most wins thinner than slippage → losses for you
Flat-copyable
equal-wt -1% · $-wt -1% works when copied flat
Big bets
big-bet WR —% no data
Persistence
early -4% → late +2% mixed
Add-ons / DCA
1.1 add-ons/market flat bettor — clean entries
Win / loss size
+$1 vs −$4 · ×0.16 wins small, loses big
Profit factor
×0.89 loses more than it wins
Copy size
≥ $50 mirror leader trades ≥ this size to copy only main ideas

Supporting detail

234d coverage
Net worth$3
Realized−$27
Unrealized+$0
Win rate (resolved)85%
Wins / losses866 / 153
Est. fees paid−$0
Open positions3
Markets (closed)1019 / 1022
History coverage234d
Avg bet$5
Trades / day5.3
Drawdown100%
Kalshi-fit98%

Ledger

positions · history · trades
Positions 3 History 1019 Trades
Open positions — marked to current price, like Polymarket
Marketoutcome entrynow investedvalue unrealized PnL
Will Abelardo de la Espriella win the second round of the 2026 Colombian presidential election by 0-5%? Yes 99¢ 100¢ $1 $1 +$0 (+1%)
Will the Steam Machine cost $700 or more at release? Yes 100¢ 99¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-1%)
Will Darializa Avila Chevalier win the NY-13 Democratic Primary by less than 5%? Yes 100¢ 95¢ $1 $1 −$0 (-5%)
Top-25 open positions by current value. Prices in cents = market-implied probability (50¢ = 50%). Plus 73 resolved losing bets — already counted in realized PnL, so not shown here.
Closed markets — PnL by actual resolution, newest first
MarketwheninvestedPnLROI
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +16%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +19%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$2 +38%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET Jun 25 $5 −$4 -78%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET Jun 25 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +7%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET Jun 25 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +21%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET Jun 24 $25 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +2%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -97%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -79%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +3%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +8%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +42%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $10 $0 +0%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +9%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:10PM-6:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$2 -29%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:05PM-6:10PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -93%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:55PM-6:00PM ET Jun 24 $10 −$4 -43%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:00PM-6:05PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$1 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:50PM-5:55PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:45PM-5:50PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$5 -98%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:30PM-5:35PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +31%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:25PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $10 +$2 +17%
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +4%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:15PM-5:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:10PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:15PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +0%
Will Switzerland win on 2026-06-24? Jun 24 $5 $0 +6%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:00PM-5:05PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +22%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:40PM-4:45PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$5 +101%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +1%
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 4:35PM-4:40PM ET Jun 24 $5 $0 +5%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:25PM-4:30PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$1 +15%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:20PM-4:25PM ET Jun 24 $5 −$4 -78%
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 4:15PM-4:20PM ET Jun 24 $5 +$2 +36%
Latest 50 closed markets. Resolution = Polymarket fact (redeemable/curPrice), not a timer.
Latest trades by this wallet
Marketsidepricesizewhen
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET SELL Down 100¢ $6 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 85¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET BUY Down 83¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:10PM-8:15PM ET BUY Up 71¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET SELL Up 20¢ $1 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 8:05PM-8:10PM ET BUY Up 83¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 8:00PM-8:05PM ET BUY Up 81¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Up 93¢ $5 1h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 7:45PM-8:00PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:50PM-7:55PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:30PM-7:35PM ET BUY Up 70¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:15PM-7:30PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $25 1h
Solana Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 100¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:20PM-7:25PM ET BUY Up 98¢ $5 1h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:10PM-7:15PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 7:00PM-7:05PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET SELL Down 12¢ $1 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:55PM-7:00PM ET BUY Down 51¢ $5 2h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 96¢ $5 2h
XRP Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:45PM-6:50PM ET BUY Down 97¢ $5 2h
Ethereum Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 99¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:30PM-6:35PM ET BUY Up 92¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:25PM-6:30PM ET BUY Down 50¢ $5 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET SELL Down 58¢ $7 2h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:20PM-6:25PM ET BUY Down 38¢ $5 3h
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 99¢ $5 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET SELL Down 93¢ $6 3h
Dogecoin Up or Down - June 24, 6:15PM-6:20PM ET BUY Down 84¢ $5 3h
From the wallet’s activity history (Polymarket /activity), latest 30.
✓ Calibrated vs Polymarket: our portfolio calc $2.95 · official $2.95 (match) · 2121 history records